December Model Discussion

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Yep

Big shift

Post? My UKIE site still is old 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Post? My UKIE site still is old 

Yeah meteocentre looks like no update yet which is 10 mins late or so 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

.2 into southern Monmouth in this forum from some wound up ensembles members ain’t getting it done.  In fact the eps median is a whiff, a few leaners skew it to the flurry side. 

 

Why pitch to Bonds with a base open? 

You realize as of today the #2 and #4 skill score model produce a snowstorm now.

UKMET 

CMC 

We are not talking about second tier guidance here 

[PB GFI]

So forecasting .2 to .3 as of now is not outside the scope of all the guidance 

[Heisy]

All my ukie sites haven't updated, where you guys seeing it? 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

The Canadian is garbage, I’d give the ukie more credence especially since it typically is a bit progressive, but not without any euro support. The ukie has been very erratic and sporadic lately too without any support from the other guns. 

Buffett will tell you at 1 what to buy, don’t take the grocery checkout guys picks. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

All my ukie sites haven't updated, where you guys seeing it? 

its updated on meteocentre now

[PB GFI]

UKMET OBX / BM 

 

Sick track.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I’ve loaded but I hate meteocentre... frames are too far spaced... anyone have a better picture of LP as it passes? Or precip totals of UKIE 

[forkyfork]

if the southern s/w goes negatively tilted fast enough the northern s/w serves to enhance it instead of crush it. that's how the ukmet shows a hit

[forkyfork]

and the snow zone is fairly narrow. if these amped up solutions verify long island could see some sleet

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

The Canadian is garbage, I’d give the ukie more credence especially since it typically is a bit progressive, but not without any euro support. The ukie has been very erratic and sporadic lately too without any support from the other guns. 

Buffett will tell you at 1 what to buy, don’t take the grocery checkout guys picks. 

If the op Euro and EPS show a snowstorm at 12z, then I’ll bite. Until then, I’m not looking at the NAM and RGEM at the end of their runs, the Canadian is pure garbage (remember last year with its 2 foot fantasy phantom blizzards?) and the UKMET is flip flopping and the NAVGEM? Lol. The op GFS/GEFS and the Euro/EPS have been consistently unimpressive with this weekend

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

and the snow zone is fairly narrow. if these amped up solutions verify long island could see some sleet

I think the UKMET may be as far west as this can get.  The setup to me doesn’t look like one where this can go much closer to the coast than that 

[The Plowsman]

CMC is still a good hit

Delete if anyone wants to

CMCs smoking something...as usual

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

CMC is still a good hit

Delete if anyone wants to


 

CMCs smoking something...as usual

Its not only the CMC

Ukie , JMA , SREF 

[Animal]

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Its not only the CMC

Ukie , JMA , SREF 

Euro & GFS indicate clouds and slight chance of snow showers coastal areas.

hard to ignore both of these models at this range. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Animal said:

Euro & GFS indicate clouds and slight chance of snow showers coastal areas.

hard to ignore both of these models at this range. 

Euro has some snow for the area and has made strides towards shifting west.

Euro is starting to focus on the 2nd low that develops in the gulf.

 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, Animal said:

Euro & GFS indicate clouds and slight chance of snow showers coastal areas.

hard to ignore both of these models at this range. 

EPS is 2 to 3 inches  I95 east 

[MJO812]

Much better developed low on the EPS

The cluster also is further west

1-2 inches for NYC with slightly more to the east towards LI.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Sref east, weaker, drier. Cut down snow means.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Sref east, weaker, drier. Cut down snow means.

It definitely sort of hinted what the Euro showed.  Things looked better thru 54-57 down in the gulf areas then it wasn’t as good as the previous run after that especially up the coast.  The east shove after 57 was apparent 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Goose it’s been that way a couple days. Things organize pretty well down south but it’s just asking too much to bring precip up here. The Midwest shortwave has no room to work with and just acting as a kicker. This just scoots out which I think you’ll see modeled better as we move closer. Euro was actually a step in wrong direction overall. 

[NJwx85]

This one is DOA for the Western half of the sub-forum, which is fine for me personally as it's too early for significant snow in these parts for my taste.

There was a decent shift East on the EPS which is reflected in the decrease of QPF on the mean from the 00z run to the current 12z run.

[PB GFI]

lol , 0z included last nights rain

[SnoSki14]

Gfs was starting to head towards a more western solution. I don't think the threat is dead yet.

[The Plowsman]

Euro & GFS indicate clouds and slight chance of snow showers coastal areas.

hard to ignore both of these models at this range. 

My $$s on gfs..only

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

euro by wed next week, brings back our coastal tue/wed

[MJO812]

EPS control for next week

https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2017_12/eps_snow_c_neng_27.png.8a2f3d9c5e56e4841c829d0afee7331a.png

[Ericjcrash]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

EPS control for next week

https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2017_12/eps_snow_c_neng_27.png.8a2f3d9c5e56e4841c829d0afee7331a.png

Wouldn't that be combined?

[Ericjcrash]

NAM is juiced. Bout to get NAMEd