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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy hour returns on the GFS, especially for SE areas. 

You could see the shift by hour 72 that flow along the coast was backing a little more and the vort was digging deeper. Close to a best case sceario run because the ns wasnt screwing things up as much and leaving us dynamic no man's land. 18z depiction was almost entirely southern stream action. Interesting....

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

You could see the shift by hour 72 that flow along the coast was backing a little more and the vort was digging deeper. Close to a best case sceario run because the ns wasnt screwing things up as much and leaving us dynamic no man's land. 18z depiction was almost entirely southern stream action. Interesting....

Think we have any chance of a phase per 12z eps?

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Think we have any chance of a phase per 12z eps?

Somebody does but we're likely too far south for that. Imho- best case scenario would be all southern stream wirh limited ns interaction. If the ns low digs into the TN valley then it gets much better for us but I haven't seen anything show that lately. 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Somebody does but we're likely too far south for that. Imho- best case scenario would be all southern stream wirh limited ns interaction. If the ns low digs into the TN valley then it gets much better for us but I haven't seen anything show that lately. 

Doesn't the euro op show that without as much ss?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

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17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Doesn't the euro op show that without as much ss?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.png

Euro digs the vort deep but slp is up around the lakes and never makes it south of IN. Pos tilt and keeps the southern wave pretty far east. 

I suppose if the vort digs deep and goes negative it could enhance development into a good storm. That's a tall order but still possible. 

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Btr, take a look at these two panels. Both the gfs and euro have the ns low up around lake superior at the same point in time. 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_6.png

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_20.png

 

Any phase is going to happen way north of us. The southern wave could get fairly strong if the approaching trough goes neg or neutral. Anyone looking for a big event would want to watch that feature and actually root for the NS low to not be a player at all. 

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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro digs the vort deep but slp is up around the lakes and never makes it south of IN. Pos tilt and keeps the southern wave pretty far east. 

I suppose if the vort digs deep and goes negative it could enhance development into a good storm. That's a tall order but still possible. 

Yep, multiple options with equivalent possibilities!

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

I think it just goes to show how unstable a model the GFS OP is. The GEFS, Euro OP and EPS have been much more stable.

This is why I pay very little attention to the off runs of the GFS (06z, 18z). The off runs have improved drastically from just a few years ago but IMO they still have some issues. I know that they supposedly have better verification scores then the 12z and 00Z but it seems to me they are the runs that are more likely to go off the rails. Of course my opinion may be colored by many years of dealing with them when they were horrible so maybe I am just being hypercritical. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

This is why I pay very little attention to the off runs of the GFS (06z, 18z). The off runs have improved drastically from just a few years ago but IMO they still have some issues. I know that they supposedly have better verification scores then the 12z and 00Z but it seems to me they are the runs that are more likely to go off the rails. Of course my opinion may be colored by many years of dealing with them when they were horrible so maybe I am just being hypercritical. 

Depending who you talk to some will say there is no difference between the main and off hour runs but I am not so sure. I agree with you that we usually see wonky stuff on the off hour runs. The 18z just tends to be the wonkiest of the two for some reason, 06z usually not as bad.

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14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think it just goes to show how unstable a model the GFS OP is. The GEFS, Euro OP and EPS have been much more stable.

The general theme of trough east ridge west continues on GEFS.  With slight variations that will likely have big implications...I do notice a general move toward pattern relaxation ever so slight.

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Both the eps and gefs continue to get colder in the D10+.  I know we are focused on snow but there looks to be a potent shot of arctic air coming through the plains around D10 toward the east coast.  Just give us 1-2" on the ground when that shot comes through.  The signal is certainly growing....

gefs_t2m_anom_conus_49.thumb.png.533ea89a0686ed65f519649d7784897a.png

 

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nothing to dislike about the GEFS through 384.  That theme provides continued opportunities some we will cash in on and some we won't.  It's serviceable headed into the holidays.

I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. 

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nothing to dislike about the GEFS through 384.  That theme provides continued opportunities some we will cash in on and some we won't.  It's serviceable headed into the holidays.

I like this post. Take it in a positive form and roll with it. The thermals in the long range look promising. We can figure out precip and such as it gets closer. 

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