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AMZ8990

Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

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Hope its back up and stable for a bit.....  Feel lost in the winter without AmericanWX Forums...  18Z NAM running, lets see if the 18Z suite can put some optimism back into this after a yucky 12Z.

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Just now, John1122 said:

Second system for early next week has become an ever weakening clipper now. The Euro is the most aggressive with it, giving 1-2 inches of snow to the area. The GFS and Canadian just crap it out.

That says something though, considering it seems to me the Euro usually is the one that has a harder time with clippers.  So if it sees it maybe that is a good sign.

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5 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

18Z NAM doesn't look half bad, still a major storm for West and Middle TN.

Saw that too, The NAM has been steady the past two days.  I hope it ends up being right!!

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Memphis is a winner on the 18z NAM. Looks like about 10 inches there.  I am sure the precip types are greatly inflating the snow totals. Maybe you guys can pound sleet for a while...  With the coming cold, it would be like a glacier down that way.  Not to mention the possibility to cover it wish a couple of inches of snow early next week. 

Good luck over that way!

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1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

Saw that too, The NAM has been steady the past two days.  I hope it ends up being right!!

A lot of that though will be sleet and freezing rain.  Gotta hope that the cold air deepens quickly.

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NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground.  Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one.

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground.  Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one.

Agree, I have been cutting the NAM totals in half for the last 2-3 years. Doing that will serve you well 9 out of 10 times..

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10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM gives Memphis about 3-4 inches of snow on the ground.  Around 6 for Dyersburg. Lots of freezing rain in the area before the snow starts. I've found a good rule of thumb with the NAM is to cut totals in half. So probably 2-3 inches of snow on top of sleet and around .25-.35 ice in west Tennessee if the NAM solution is the final one.

2-3 inches would be fine by me!

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I really would like to see the 12Z GEFS score an upset.  Like its SLP track out of all the runs today. 

EDIT:  In fact I'll take its SLP track its temps and its qpf for the whole forum.

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If system #2 adds snow to system #1 in Middle Tennessee and northeast Tenn, everybody up there may get new antifreeze and new car batteries for late Holiday gifts.

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Was just noticing system 2 looks a little more stout on 12Z GFS and the center of the High further north a little more out of the way out to hour 78.

EDIT: out to 108 looks like a nice nearly forum wide light snow event with good ratios.  Wouldn't be surprised for a wide spread 1-3 with some areas more with seriously high ratios.  That cold is extreme, snow wouldn't be going anywhere for a while.

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23 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Was just noticing system 2 looks a little more stout on 12Z GFS and the center of the High further north a little more out of the way out to hour 78.

EDIT: out to 108 looks like a nice nearly forum wide light snow event with good ratios.  Wouldn't be surprised for a wide spread 1-3 with some areas more with seriously high ratios.  That cold is extreme, snow wouldn't be going anywhere for a while.

....and if I remember correctly, that system almost forms a blizzard for the NE when it phases that energy w/ some on the EC.  Then the Euro has one more after that attacks the retreating cold.  Crazy times.  

I still see a warm-up out there...but the 6zGFS and 0z GEPS try to break down the western trough late in the run.  The 0z EPS mean won't have any of it as it holds the trough west.   Now, the EPS control keeps bring wave after wave of cold no matter the 500 position.  I still lean w/ the EPS mean, but blocking at high latitude may fight the very warm MJO phases that are approaching.  Still think Jan 20-Feb5 looks about right for a big warmup...w even a chance the cold is delayed in returning.  Still, to steal a line from Bob Chill, the cold in Canada has not been bullied by the Pacific often this winter.

 

 

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You know the 12z Euro looks like it is getting ready to reload the SE cold via the western trough on d10....basically scoots the cold under the AN heights in Canada.  The EPS control did that through d15.  That is promising.  

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I don't get how the clipper for next week is just streaking towards Tennessee out of Missouri laying down 2-4 inches of snow....then it just dies as it arrives. It shouldn't be this hard to get clippers that perform well. I used to hear clipper and get excited because I could lock in 2-4 inches of snow when they approached from Missouri. The second wave looks healthy right now too but it's also having trouble getting into Tennessee.

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This seems to be turning into a brutal head fake winter for the Eastern Forum.

 

It's depressing. Especially if we endure another bout of polar desert next week. But I am optimistic about February for some foolhardy reason.

 

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The models started bouncing towards the clipper connecting with energy in Texas and tapping some moisture from the south. It's what they were first showing when it looked like a 2-4 inch state wide event. The GFS and the Gem were close and the Euro actually connected them. The main effects are south of us on the Euro but it still gave a couple of inches to the area that run. It develops a low that gives the deep south another snow and nails North Carolina too. 

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