JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Can you post a comparison?Still too far out to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The 113 mph gust was the last report out of San Juan. A sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 113 mph (182 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico. Yes, that's the one I just heard about. Strongest wind gust from anywhere in PR I can find is 118 mph from Santiago Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 12 minutes ago, senc30 said: Can you post a comparison? Still too far out to matter. Agreed but would still like to see a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: No. That storm made additional landfalls in Jamaica and Belize. By the time it made landfall in Belize, it was a tropical storm. Don, interesting list of analogs we can come up with, major hurricanes that hit PR and what they did afterwards? 1928 Cat 5, hit Fla "Lake Okeechobee Hurricane", 1932 Cat 4 as you stated, went into Central America as a TS, 1989 Hugo went on to hit SC as a Cat 4, and now we have Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes, that's the one I just heard about. Strongest wind gust from anywhere in PR I can find is 118 mph from Santiago Harbor. Several rivers are already near record flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Agreed but would still like to see a comparison. The tools are all there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017092006&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Several rivers are already at record flood stage. double digit rainfall totals already being reported! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 15 minutes ago, senc30 said: Can you post a comparison? Still too far out to matter. Can't be thinking about this before Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Can't be thinking about this before Monday.No question there has been a trend towards a closer track to the east coast. Just still plenty of time for that to completely reverse itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The 140 gust was on an island just ENE of PR. I'm sure there were gusts near that in PR..but you won't know probably thanks to power or equipment failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Can't be thinking about this before Monday. No question there has been a trend towards a closer track to the east coast. Just still plenty of time for that to completely reverse itself. Yes, we have two distinct camps. So there's a lot of interest in what might happen next week, but I'm a bit burnt out staying up til 2 am looking at Jose modeling most of last week, and all we had was a couple of downpours and some nice cool breezes Still appreciate the updates though, especially since even the "out to sea" camp has the storm getting pretty close to the coast before veering away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Another stream, San Juan https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: double digit rainfall totals already being reported! Irma was a good table setter for widespread record river flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: The 140 gust was on an island just ENE of PR. I'm sure there were gusts near that in PR..but you won't know probably thanks to power or equipment failure. Yeah that was the 112 sustained / 140 gust report. I'm sure the taller peaks on PR probably exceeded that. Any idea how close the eye of Maria came to the higher mountains in east-central PR, Scott? New 8 am advisory still has the storm at 150 mph / 921 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Yes, we have two distinct camps. So there's a lot of interest in what might happen next week, but I'm a bit burnt out staying up til 2 am looking at Jose modeling most of last week, and all we had was a couple of downpours and some nice cool breezes Still appreciate the updates though, especially since even the "out to sea" camp has the storm getting pretty close to the coast before veering away. TyphoonTip has a pretty good post about it in the New England thread this morning. I wouldn't do any all nighters on a Maria east coast landfall at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Irma was a good table setter for widespread record river flooding... landslides might be a big problem because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Based on the latest IR loop it appears that what's left of the Northern eyewall is already approaching the Northern coast. Maria should be back over the warm waters by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah that was the 112 sustained / 140 gust report. I'm sure the taller peaks on PR probably exceeded that. Any idea how close the eye of Maria came to the higher mountains in east-central PR, Scott? New 8 am advisory still has the storm at 150 mph / 921 mb Looks like it probably heavily damaged that forest in NE PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Crazieman said: Another stream, San Juan https://livestormchasing.com/stream/brandon.clement He's reporting a wind change, the eye has likely already passed his location. If that's the case, at least a portion of the eye is already coming back offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: double digit rainfall totals already being reported! Getting some photos now from the Olive Boutique hotel in San Juan. https://mobile.twitter.com/briggsoto/status/910473832359657472?p=v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like it probably heavily damaged that forest in NE PR. The sounds coming out of those forests are truly ghastly. And this storm has a long history of completely stripping trees of their leaves. The sound in the video below is terrifying, it sounds like some huge monster exhaling through its teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Several rivers are already near record flood stage. I can't imagine how much rain they got to get such a sharp rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Whole island engulfed by Maria - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I don't think you could get a more precise hit that that on PR. It just bulldozed through almost dead center of the island. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 140 gust was on an island just ENE of PR. I'm sure there were gusts near that in PR..but you won't know probably thanks to power or equipment failure. How do you feel about the 155mph LF intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you feel about the 155mph LF intensity? Well my guess is that is probably was not 155 sustained on the island given past behavior with these ERC...but I was not flying around in it either. That's just an educated guess. I'm sure you have violent gusts that helped make up for it, like we saw with Irma in SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well my guess is that is probably was not 155 sustained on the island given past behavior with these ERC...but I was not flying around in it either. That's just an educated guess. I'm sure you have violent gusts that helped make up for it, like we saw with Irma in SW FL. Agree. I think it was a little weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fringed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Crazieman said: Not good to see the rivers react so fast. Being forced to seek out shelter on higher ground during hurricane conditions does not sound like fun. Hopefully those flood plains aren't very populated.. of course when you start exceeding record levels people tend to get caught off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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