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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well then... this... isn't helpful... two camps... GFS OP would be right smack dab in the middle

gefs_cyclone_atlantic_25.png

Most of the members are east of Miami, which I think verifies.

Going to be tight, but I think Miami avoids catastrophe.

Carolinas probably deal with a strong cat 3.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those 6 or so eastern ones have to be out to lunch.  Hard to imagine all the other guidance would be missing that sharp of an early turn 

Its the NE trough leaning back juuust enough to overcome the wave break.  Possible.. lets see ehat the Euro says

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44 minutes ago, Quincy said:

 

Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma)

Floyd hit NC causing extensive destruction... iirc, at the time it was the largest peacetime evacuation ever ordered (FL, southeast, etc.). More or less paralleled the coast, came onshore as a slightly weaker storm near Oak Island, NC, and proceeded northward, causing extensive flooding in NC all the way up to NY.

If Floyd flirted with Florida before heading north, then Irma is all-out seducing her.

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I really want to be within the 72 to 48 hour timeframes before I even start to get comfortable with the major model players concerning South Florida. Even with Gulf Stream flight data, balloons, etc., the geography of peninsula, shape of coastline and the sharp turn at play is just within too great an error. Two days out and we may still be struggling with southern peninsula landfall. This remains on the extremes of forecasting. We may have horror stories from evacuations and deal with regret, but we'll deal with that later. If I resided in southern Florida, I would have evacuated if told to do so, no regrets. Too much uncertainty and too great a risk.

 

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