Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro identical to 12z through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Euro identical to 12z through 48 NE at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Out to 72, barely north of 12z pretty much the same. Not looking good for SOFLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Shade north and 7mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Quincy said: NE at hour 60. Ever so slightly. Really almost identical through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 NE trough looks a hair more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 About 30 miles NE and 10 mb stronger at hour 78. Approaching the eastern keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Center on the central FL coast at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At 96, 0z is more NW. Has Irma over the port st lucie area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agrayson12 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Don, excellent summary. One note the Great Miami Hurricane I think you are referring to was n 1926. The others for reference lol... Saw the pic of the 1926 and scared the crap out of me for a brief moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Op has LF on FL at 96 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017090700&fh=96&r=caribbean&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Figured because despite starting a bit ne at first, what was important was that the NE trough was a bit more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS went east, Euro went west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro is absolutely apocalyptic for the Miame-Dade area- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said: Miami zoom: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro takes Irma straight up the Coast line into GA. At 120 Irma in SE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Rides up coast and looks to stay inland. East coast of Florida from Marathon Key to Orlando gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Pretty much a worst case scenario for Miami proper with that track coming in just south of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Catastrophic run for the entire East coast of FL and even GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I’ve got friends in FL, not near Miami thank god more closer to Daytona somewhat inland but this forecast is crucial. Isn’t the Euro basically the best at this range? Should we be favoring the Euro over the GFS and other models at this point? What are the differences that are causing this 50-75 mile difference in track? Got to decide whether they need to go or can hunker down and wait it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 LF loc looked really close to where the tightest clusters were on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, sirkan said: Op has LF on FL at 96 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017090700&fh=96&r=caribbean&dpdt= I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here. Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc.. Please??? AND Thank you!!! I must be misunderstanding something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 sorry guys-- those last two for SC where the GFS-- deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WildFlower said: I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here. Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc.. Please??? AND Thank you!!! As said multiple times earlier, don't pay attention to the modeled wind speeds, their gonna be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WildFlower said: I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here. Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc.. Please??? AND Thank you!!! I must be misunderstanding something?? That's an MSLP map, not a wind speed map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, JoMo said: That's an MSLP map, not a wind speed map? yes it is... sorry kind of easy to misunderstand with IRMA threatening to blow the front door and roof from your home. Thanks for clearing my blondish moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WildFlower said: yes it is... sorry kind of easy to misunderstand with IRMA threatening to blow the front door and roof from your home. Thanks for clearing my blondish moment FWIW, the Euro 'gusts' product is showing gusts probably 120-130, takes the center of the eye just to the west of Boynton Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, delijoe said: What are the differences that are causing this 50-75 mile difference in track? From what I can tell, through 48 hours the euro is just faster and farther south with the track, so at 72 hours it has made it farther west before the turn arrives. Also, this run, the euro slides the northeast trough eastward quicker, which appears to allow Irma's north turn to be a bit less sharp than what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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