Rtd208 Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 Models continue to show the potential for heavy rain/flooding from Thursday afternoon into early Saturday, right now the heaviest rain (several inches possible) looks to the centered over S NJ and along the coast with amounts of around 2.00" give or take in our area. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 0z 12km NAM went from deluge to nothing for the metro. 3km also has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 The NAM has been so erratic from run to run and it wouldn't surprise me if the GFS does the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 You can get whiplash following the nam...went from 7" for parts of cnj to 0.50" or so...GFS still with 2" or so amounts for city environs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 06z NAM comes back further north versus the 00z and the 00z GFS was north as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 06z GFS also continues to be north, anyone have the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The NAM is worthless. Another huge run to run change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The GFS moved south from 0z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 And in case nobody mentioned it, the Euro went south at 0z. Though the 6z GFS and 0z Euro don't screw the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 CMC is south of all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Now there's modeling trying to hang this crap around into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6z RGEM screws pretty much the entire area. And that's a RAP. Someone can post the German, French, and Japanese models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2017 Author Share Posted July 27, 2017 It would certainly be the theme of the summer so far if the heaviest rains missed us to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The 0z guidance came in less progressive with a slower moving cutoff this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Thanks for posting the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think that's the first time I saw the UKIE print out a 6" bullseye before in a single frame. The Euro also has some extreme amounts around 15" to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't worry, I'll be in Wildwood this weekend, so you can guarantee that white area will move slightly southeast. Can't catch a break with this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The 09z SREF ticked North a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 09z SREF ticked North a bit. Mean for both ensembles separately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Don't worry, I'll be in Wildwood this weekend, so you can guarantee that white area will move slightly southeast. Can't catch a break with this weather. Oh man, maybe by sunday you'll be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Unfortunately that's the day we come home. Mount Holly thinks that Monday will be the day for clearing, but I'm hoping in between there are at least some dry periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 12z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM Bye Asbury Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 Don't worry the next Nam run will have it miss us by 100 miles. That model should never be taken seriously but at the very least it does illustrate that someone may get a lot of rain on Fri-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't worry the next Nam run will have it miss us by 100 miles. That model should never be taken seriously but at the very least it does illustrate that someone may get a lot of rain on Fri-Sat. I will say a 5"+ max somewhere is a good bet with a slow moving summer cutoff. Wouldn't even be surprised if some spot scores a rare 10" or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I will say a 5"+ max somewhere is a good bet with a slow moving summer cutoff. Wouldn't even be surprised if some spot scores a rare 10" or more. Agree and given how wet things have been for a lot of places it's a guarantee setup for some significant flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 The well above normal water off the coast could add some extra juice to this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the old saying goes with this event. There are always surprises with closed or cutoff lows. I agree, it also goes with the seasonal trends. The one difference is it tends to be coastal rather then with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now