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bluewave

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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Pretty good agreement from the ensembles on a strong -AO/-NAO pattern developing during the first week of May following the warm start to the month. This is more the type of pattern that posters wanted to see this past winter into March. It could possibly be the strongest AO/NAO block since the fall as both indices have been strongly positive since then.

 

eps_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.1992541cd9ff8b373ab0f52633c7723c.png

gefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.4d693c2ade540d677803c448ffd83b8c.png

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty good agreement from the ensembles on a strong -AO/-NAO pattern developing during the first week of May following the warm start to the month. This is more the type of pattern that posters wanted to see this past winter into March. It could possibly be the strongest AO/NAO block since the fall as both indices have been strongly positive since then.

 

eps_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.1992541cd9ff8b373ab0f52633c7723c.png

gefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.4d693c2ade540d677803c448ffd83b8c.png

 

 

 

 

 

Well of course. Maybe we can get a strong nor'easter to come up the coast. And also maybe it could be the beginning of a cooler regime 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Brought a tear to my eyes seeing this... -AO/-NAO support this solution.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take

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9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take

Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections.

No I'm not I'm just saying lol. But yeah looks like a real chance of a major system in the next week

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections.

Well then you'll possibly be tearing up a lot this summer- weather company forecasters are forecasting a cool and rainy summer.

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Just now, Paragon said:

Well then you'll possibly be tearing up a lot this summer- weather company forecasters are forecasting a cool and rainy summer.

I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch.

Same here.  I like extremes (whether it be temperature or precip extremes) with nice weather between the extremes (preferably on weekends!)    How did you feel about  the Spring and Summer of 2014?  What they forecasted seemed to be similar to that year.

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Yesterday and last night was the most exciting stretch of weather since the mid March snowfalls.

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37 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yesterday and last night was the most exciting stretch of weather since the mid March snowfalls.

I wouldn't go that far, we had a nice storm in early April too.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I wouldn't go that far, we had a nice storm in early April too.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that one lol- I just saw heavier rain during the day and stronger winds with this than I remember with that one.  I think we had a dry slot with that one during the day.

 

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10 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch.

Extended "boring periods" are better for outdoor activities.  

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5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Extended "boring periods" are better for outdoor activities.  

Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building 

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16 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take

You and me both. The last thing I want is a storm, unless it's a thunderstorm.

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building 

You're talking to the man that went for a jeb walk on Tuesday night.

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building 

Most.  They are the same people that bug out if they forget to take an umbrella with them for that 100 yard or less stroll.  

31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You're talking to the man that went for a jeb walk on Tuesday night.

Yeah but that was on pavement, I don't do pavement.  If that's all I was going to do some good wet weather gear and I'd be all set for whatever happens.  

 

Since all of my outdoor time is on dirt or grass (if I feel like playing golf) I prefer dry, boring weather this time of year.  Mountain biking, hiking and even yardwork, which I hate but do anyway because it keeps me outside, just aren't much fun when it's muddy and slippery.  It's also much less buggy when things are dry.

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7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Most.  They are the same people that bug out if they forget to take an umbrella with them for that 100 yard or less stroll.  

Yeah but that was on pavement, I don't do pavement.  If that's all I was going to do some good wet weather gear and I'd be all set for whatever happens.  

 

Since all of my outdoor time is on dirt or grass (if I feel like playing golf) I prefer dry, boring weather this time of year.  Mountain biking, hiking and even yardwork, which I hate but do anyway because it keeps me outside, just aren't much fun when it's muddy and slippery.  It's also much less buggy when things are dry.

One of my favorite hikes was during a rain storm in May. We were soaked and cold by the end of the day but it was a great experience 

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Familiar look on the long range globals today. Setup looks very similar to the early April storm with a rapidly deepening surface low coming up through Eastern PA.

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

GFS is back on board with a strong system towards the end of next week.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_29.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_31.png

 

I'm skeptical.  Seems like there's been a tendency for precip events to embarrass model forecasts lately (over and under).  Looks unsettled either way though.

On a personal level, I'm ready for some nice, sunny weekends; prefer my precip to come in the winter :-)  Needless to say, I'm hating the trends for May.

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May showing few continous AN days till Memorial Day Weekend.     May looking like a tossup for us.    Too bad we are missing out on a Number One April, despite our summer like end to the month.

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On 4/28/2017 at 7:32 PM, NJwx85 said:

What a storm on the 18z GFS hrs 150-204.

995mb low and about 2" May 6-7.   Also got to love those sub-zero (C) 850mb's temps  that follow the system.

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9 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

995mb low and about 2" May 6-7.   Also got to love those sub-zero (C) 850mb's temps  that follow the system.

The 18z run Friday had over 4" NW of the city. Since then it's cut back some.

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The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6b1499739893bd64da2ca281ed2f934d.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6b1499739893bd64da2ca281ed2f934d.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

we are getting record blocks when we don't want them...I'd like to see the nao/ao positive in the summer for a change  and stay positive until November...

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.6b1499739893bd64da2ca281ed2f934d.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 00z & 06z GFS have quite the rainmaker in the Thursday through Saturday time period with what looks to be 3-5" of rain depending on location. Not sure what the other models showed for the end of the week.

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

we are getting record blocks when we don't want them...I'd like to see the nao/ao positive in the summer for a change  and stay positive until November...

That's exactly what happened in October with the record AO that flipped strongly positive until now.

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The 00z & 06z GFS have quite the rainmaker in the Thursday through Saturday time period with what looks to be 3-5" of rain depending on location. Not sure what the other models showed for the end of the week.

They all have a very wet pattern around Friday with the slow moving low under the block. I guess people will be happy if most of the rain is over before next weekend.

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