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Roger Smith

April 2017 temperature forecast contest

25 posts in this topic

As always, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals at

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Deadline is 06z April 1st, penalties run at 1% every 2 hours late (to 18z Apr 2nd) and thereafter it would be 1% an hour. 

Good luck! 

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___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

___________ +2.0 _ +0.8 _ --1.2 __ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ --0.7

 

 

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0       0.5       0.0           0.5       1.0       1.5           2.0       2.0       1.0 

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.1  _+0.7__ +0.2___ +1.8___+1.7___+2.4____+2.9___+1.9__  -0.7

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+2.1  _+1.3__    +1.0___ -0.3___+2.4___+2.8____+0.6___+1.9__  -2.1

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Sorry this is late:

DCA...NYC...BOS        ORD....ATL...IAH      PHX...DEN...SEA

+1.3...+0.7...+0.8    +2.6...+2.0...+3.5     +1.1...+1.3...-0.4

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I'm really, really sorry about my tardiness. I know this'll cost me big time.

DCA +0.5

NYC --0.5

BOS --2.5

ORD +3.0

ATL +2.0

IAH +5.0

DEN 0.0

PHX +5.5

SEA +2.0

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Table of forecasts for April 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

dmillz25 ________________ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.0 __ +3.0_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.5_ +0.5

RJay ___________________ +2.5_ +2.5+2.0 __ +4.0_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ --1.0

wxdude64 ______________ +2.4_ +1.1_ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +2.1_ +1.9 ___ +1.2_ +1.9_ --0.5

Tom ___________________ +2.1_ +1.3_ +1.0 __ --0.3_ +2.4_ +2.8 ___ +0.6_ +1.9_  --2.1

Roger Smith______________+2.0_ +0.8_ --1.2 __ +1.0_ +2.5_ +5.0 ___ +6.0_ +3.8_ --0.7

blazess556 ______________ +1.9_ +1.5_ +1.2 __ +2.8_ +2.5_ --0.3 ___ --1.5_ --0.6 _--1.3

Stebo ___________________+1.7_ +1.3_ +1.0 __ +3.0_ +2.7_ --0.5 ___ --1.7_ --0.8_ --1.5

RodneyS ________________ +1.6 _ +0.3__ 0.0 __ --0.3_ +2.4_ +2.9 ___ +0.6_ +2.7_ --2.1

 

Consensus ______________ +1.6_ +0.9_ +0.5 __ +2.6_ +2.4_ +2.5 ___ +1.4_ +1.9_ --0.7 

 

BKViking _________________+1.5_ +1.2_ +0.4 __ +3.0_ +2.7_ +2.4 ___ +1.9_ +2.2_ --0.6

Damage In Tolland ________ +1.5_ +0.5__ 0.0 __ +3.5_ +3.0 _+2.9 ___ +2.2_ +2.0_  --0.5

DonSutherland.1 __________ +1.4_ +1.0_ +0.7__ +1.4_ +2.5_ +3.2 ___ +2.3_ +2.2_ --1.1

H2OTown__Wx ___ (-10%) _ +1.3_ +0.7_ +0.8 __ +2.6_ +2.0_ +3.5 ___ +1.3_ +1.1_ --0.4

wxallannj ________________ +1.1_ +0.7_ +0.2 __ +1.8_ +1.7_ +2.4 ___ +2.9_ +1.9_ --0.7

SD _____________________ +1.0_ +0.5__ 0.0 __ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.5 ___ +2.0_ +2.0_ +1.0

Neckbeard93 ___ (-10%) ___ +0.5_ --0.5_ --2.5 __ +3.0_ +2.0_ +5.0 ____ 0.0_ +5.5_ +2.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.3_ +0.7_ +0.5 __ +1.4_ +2.0_ +1.7 ___ --1.1_ +0.9_ --1.3

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

____________________________________________________________________________

median of 16 forecasts for consensus is average of 8th and 9th ranked.  

where Normal changes color (to purple) it is also coldest, for human forecasters the extremes are marked in red and blue.

__ Edit made on April 18th was to put forecasts in correct order. Please note, I have made slight adjustments to scoring in January and March, no changes were needed for February. The changes are explained in the March thread. This is in response to the problem of having several months that turned out much different from most forecasts with a change in sign involved -- this did not fall into the already-existing expanded error range for cases of large anomalies, so I have scored low-score months from an essentially rank-ordered correlative method that removes most of the zero scores that were in the tables. Let me know if you think this is working more fairly, I think it is (and my rank went down as my zero scores were more earned than most of them). :)

 

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Anomalies and projections will be updated every second day 20th to 28th and then on 29th and 30th ... yet again reality seems warmer than our forecasting range (in the east anyway).

 

______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

____ (7d) _____ +5.0_ +0.2_ --1.4 ___ +2.6_ +3.5_ +2.5 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.9

___ (10d) _____ +4.6_ +1.8_ +1.0 ___ +5.8_ +2.6_ +3.1 ___ +1.5_ +1.1_ +0.7

___ (12d) _____ +6.4_ +4.2_ +3.2 ___ +4.9_ +3.5_ +2.7 ___ +2.5_ +1.5_ +0.5

___ (15d) _____ +6.7_ +4.3_ +3.4 ___ +6.3_ +4.7_ +2.8 ___ +3.9_ +2.1_ +0.1

___ (18d) _____ +7.5_ +5.5_ +4.7 ___ +6.8_ +5.4_ +3.0 ___ +4.3_ +2.6_ +0.7

___ (20d) _____ +7.4e +4.9_ +4.1 ___ +7.0_ +5.8_ +3.3 ___ +4.8_ +2.9_ +0.7

___ (22d) _____ +7.2_ +4.1_ +3.2 ___ +6.1_ +6.2_ +3.3 ___ +3.9_ +3.1_ +1.0

___ (24d) _____ +6.2_ +3.7_ +3.0 ___ +5.9_ +5.3_ +2.5 ___ +4.1_ +3.4_ +0.8

___ (26d) _____ +5.8_ +3.2_ +2.6 ___ +6.5_ +5.2_ +2.6 ___ +3.4_ +3.3_ +0.7

___ (28d) _____ +6.3_ +3.7_ +2.8e___ +5.9_ +5.4_ +2.6 ___ +2.5_ +3.2_ +0.5

___ (29d) _____ +6.7_ +4.2_ +3.5 ___ +5.3_ +5.6_ +2.6 ___ +1.7_ +2.8_ +0.4

___ (30d) ____ +7.0_ +4.2_ +3.5 ___+4.8_ +5.8_ +2.2 ___ +1.5_+2.6_+0.3

(03z May 3) _ Final anomalies appear in bold, now that  DCA have confirmed the provisional value of +7.0 ... that happy circumstance means that our tables are already final. 

__ 2.4" snow at DEN on 29th, have updated the snowfall contest in the March thread, will make a final report in the May thread as DEN can record snow to at least Memorial Day. However, if we assume all other locations are done for the season, DEN needs 7 inches more to affect any of the current rankings (RodneyS in second place has the lowest DEN residual to use up) and contest leader Mercurial has 13.4" left for his DEN forecast.  

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oh man i completely forgot about this I havent had much time to go online lately and just got the chance to log on here. Oh well off to may, one month cant hurt too much right?

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No problem the way most of us are edging slowly ahead with dozens of points every month. :)

(check the March thread, I adjusted all scoring so that we didn't have all zero scores from a range of forecasts, now there's a guaranteed minimum progression of scores based on some rather low arbitrary high scores of 40 (where the old system gave 35 or less) or 50 (where it was 36-49). but when anyone gets a non-adjusted score above 50 the field has to go off the basic scoring still. So it rewards those who are bold and accurate. We had an expanded metric for those cases where most were on the right side of normal but too timid, but this brings the same sort of spread to the cases where people are also on the wrong side of normal in general and outside the normal scoring zone. It didn't really change the order that much but one or two people will notice that this method gave them a bit of a boost for forecasts that were closer than most (better than most).

Since these two posts have appeared, I should mention that the anomaly countdown is now two posts back, and some provisional scoring will be posted tomorrow after the 18th update (I plan to update after tomorrow every second day with this trend of warmer than all forecasts continuing its ugly path of destruction). 

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Final scoring for April 2017

 

Scoring is based on provisional end of month anomalies in post 19 ... when these change, the scoring will also change.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____ TOTAL

 

RJay ___________________ 30 _ 66 _ 70___ 166 ___84 _ 42 _ 94 ___ 220 _____386

dmillz25 ________________ 40 _ 46 _ 50 ___ 136 ___ 64 _ 32 _ 96 ___ 192 _____ 328 

BKViking ________________ 15 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 093 ___ 64 _ 46 _ 96___ 206 _____ 299

wxdude64 _______________28 _ 38 _ 40 ___ 106 ___ 54 _ 34 _ 94 ___ 182 _____ 288

Damage In Tolland ________15 _ 26 _ 30 ___ 071 ___ 74 _ 52 _ 86___ 212 _____ 283

 

Consensus ______________ 16 _ 34 _ 40 ___ 090 ___ 56 _ 40 _ 94 ___ 190 _____ 280

 

blazess556 ______________ 19 _ 46 _ 64 ___ 119 ___ 60 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 152 _____ 271 

Stebo __________________ 17 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 109 ___ 64 _ 46 _ 46 ___ 156 _____ 265 

DonSutherland.1 __________14 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 094 ___ 32 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 154 _____ 248

Tom ___________________ 22 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 114 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 88 ___ 128 _____ 242

wxallannj ________________11 _ 30 _ 34 ___ 075 ___ 40 _ 26 _ 96___ 162 _____ 237

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 03 _ 30 _ 40 ___ 073 ___ 32 _ 32 _ 90 ___ 154 _____ 227

H2OTown__Wx ___________13 _ 30 _ 46 ___ 089 ___ 56 _ 32 _ 74 ___ 162 _ 251 

__________ (-10%) _______12 _ 27 _ 41 ___ 080 ___ 50 _ 29 _ 67 ___ 146 _____ 226

RodneyS ________________ 16 _ 22 _ 30 ___ 068 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 86 ___ 126 _____ 194

SD _____________________ 10 _ 26 _ 30 ___ 066 ___ 14 _ 12 _ 86 ___ 112 _____ 178

Roger Smith______________20 _ 32 _ 06 ___ 058 ___ 24 _ 42 _ 44 ___ 110 _____ 168

Neckbeard93 _____________ 05 _ 06 _ 00 ___ 011 ___ 64 _ 32 _ 44 ___ 140 _ 151 

_________ (-10%) ________ 05 _ 05 _ 00 ___ 010 ___ 58 _ 29 _ 40 ___ 127 _____ 137

 

Normal __________________ 00 _ 16 _ 30 ___ 046 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 060 _____ 106

 

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests, April 2017

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine (= rank)

 

dmillz25 _______________100 _ 7896___ 274 _________ 602 ( = 2 )

BKViking ________________ 92 _ 92 _ 82 ___ 266 _________ 565 ( = 3)

wxdude64 _______________94 _ 86 _ 84 ___ 264 _________ 552 ( = 4 )

SD _____________________90 _ 88 _ 86 ___ 264 _________ 442 ( = 11)

 

Consensus ______________ 98  _ 86 _ 80 ___ 264 _________ 544 ( = 5 )

 

Damage In Tolland ________86 _ 88 _ 84 ___ 258 _________ 541 ( = 5)

DonSutherland.1 __________84 _ 92 _ 72 ___ 248 _________ 496 ( = 6 )

RJay ___________________100 _ 68 _ 74 ___ 242 _________628 ( = 1 )

wxallannj ________________72 _ 86 _ 80 ___ 238 _________ 475 ( = 7 )

RodneyS ________________ 82 _ 98 _ 52 ___ 232 _________ 426 ( =10 )

H2OTown__wx ___________ 96 _ 70 _ 86 _ 252

___________ (-10%) ______ 86 _ 63 _ 77 ___ 226 _________ 452 ( = 9)

Tom ____________________82 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 220 _________ 462 ( = 8 )

 

Normal _________________ 70 _ 48 _ 94 ___ 212 _________ 318 ( =16 )

 

hudsonvalley21 __________ 48 _ 66 _ 68 ___ 182 _________ 409 ( =13 )

Neckbeard93 ____________ 70 _ 42 _ 66 _ 178

________ (-10%) ________ 63 _ 38 _ 59 ___ 160 _________ 297 ( =16 )

Roger Smith______________10 _ 76 _ 80 ___ 166 _________ 334 ( = 15)

blazess556 ______________ 40 _ 36 _ 68 ___ 144 _________ 415 ( =12 )

Stebo __________________ 36 _ 32 _ 64 ___ 132 _________ 397 ( =14 )

 

 

 

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Extreme Forecast Update

 

Oops, we did it again ... five more extreme forecasts qualified making it a total 25 out of 36 so far this year. 

 

DCA finished at +7.0, a win for the highest forecast of +3.0 (dmillz25).

NYC finished at +4.2 with a win for RJay at +2.5.

BOS finished at +3.5, another win for RJay with a forecast of +2.0.

ORD finished at +4.8, that's another win for RJay at +4.0.

ATL finished at +5.8, a win for Damage in Tolland (+3.0).

IAH dropped out of contention and finished at +2.2. 

DEN also dropped out of contention with the finish of +1.5 close to consensus.

PHX ifinished at +2.6, and the third highest forecast (+2.7, RodneyS) is high score, so not quite an extreme forecast.

SEA was also won by the third highest forecast, finishing +0.3, and Dmillz25 with +0.5 had high score. 

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 7-0

DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Wxdude64 _________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-0

Wxallannj __________1-0

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

RodneyS __________ 1-0

Neckbeard93 _______ 1-0

Danger in Tolland ___ 1-0

so_whats_happening _1-0

Normal ____________1-0

Stebo _____________0-1

____________________________________________

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<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Apr) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for April scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RJay had best scores for NYC, BOS and ORD (in April) and also for the eastern and central totals in April, and is high score for April. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-Apr are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 RJay _______________150 _205_196__551 ___197 _196 _245__638__1189__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr

 2 DonSutherland.1 _____145 _138 _136 __419___186 _198 _209 __593 ___1012 __001.111..1..1 _ Jan 

 3 blazess556 __________131 _169 _178 __478 ___160 _179 _157 __496 ___ 974 __001.000

 4 dmillz25 ____________112 _121 _124 __357 ___186 _170 _186 __536 ___ 899 __100.101

 5 BKViking ____________115 _139 _147__401 ___148 _184 _163 __495 ___ 896 __000.001

  

 6 Consensus __________102 _106 _115 __323 ___146 _183 _211 __540 ___ 863

 

 6 hudsonvalley21 ______ 105 _107 _128 __340 ___152 _156 _163 __471 ___ 811

 7 wxallannj ___________ 103 _108 _110 __321 ___ 81 _179 _206 __466 ___ 787 __000.011

 8 wxdude64 __________ 159 _114 _107 __360 ___140 _133 _150 __423 ___ 783 __110.000..1.0

 9 Stebo ______________ 103 _109 _112 __324 ___124 _194 _134 __452 ___ 776 

10 Damage in Tolland ____ 65 _ 81 _ 72 __218 ___ 148 _177 _198 __ 523 ___ 741 __000.010

 

11 Tom ________________121 _101 _103 __325 ___108 _138 _159 __405 ___ 730 __000.100

12 SD _________________124 _103 _105 __332 ___138 _113 _136 __387 ___ 719

13 RodneyS _____________ 92 _ 58 _ 70 __220 ___125 _137 _215 __477 ___ 697 __011.100..0..1 _ Mar 

14 H2Otown_WX ________ 79 _ 88 _100 __267 ___ 70 _153 _167 __390 ___ 657 __000.001

15 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

16 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

17 Roger Smith __________66 _ 67 _ 22 __155 ___ 86 _144 _181 __411 ___ 566

18 Neckbeard93*_________22 _ 32 _ 49 __103 ___152 _110 _158 __420 ___ 523

 

19 Normal ____________108 _ 81 _ 86 __275 ___103 _ 32 _ 56 __ 191 ___ 466 ___010.000

 

19 so_whats_happening@__65 _ 45 _ 38 __148 ___ 28 _100 _103 __231 ___ 379

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________272 _300 _313___ 885 __ 1 0 0 _ Jan _____2074 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR

 2 wxallannj ___________222 _327 _280 ___ 829 __ 0 1 1 __________1616 ( = 5)  

 3 dmillz25 ____________ 214 _231 _342 ___ 787 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr ____ 1686 (= 3) 

 4 DonSutherland.1 _____ 255 _275 _260 ___ 790 __ 2 0 0 __________1802 ( = 2) ___ JAN 

  

 5 Consensus ___________213 _269 _298 ___ 780 __ 1 0 0 _________ 1639 ( = 4)

 

t5 Roger Smith _________203 _229 _344 ___ 776 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____1342 ( = 15) 

t5 H20TownWx _________255 _230 _291 ___ 776 __ 0 0 1 __________1433 ( = 11)

 7 Damage in Tolland ____184 _288 _267 ___ 739 _________________ 1480 ( = 7)

 8 Tom ________________153 _287 _296 ___ 736 _________________1466  ( = 9)

 9 BKViking ____________169 _240 _316 ___ 725 _________________ 1621 ( = 4)

10 RodneyS ____________194 _285 _220 ___ 699 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1396 ( =12) ___  MAR

 

11 wxdude64 ___________183 _246 _260 ___ 689 ________________ 1472 ( = 8)

12 SD_________________186 _233 _252 ___ 671 _________________ 1390 ( = 13)

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 161 _216 _250 ___ 627 ________________ 1438 ( = 10)

14 blazess556 __________152^_209^_234__ 595 ________________ 1569 ( = 6)

 

15 Normal _____________ 156 _178 _260 ___ 594 ________________1060 ( = 18)

 

15 Stebo ______________121 _184 _282 ___ 587 _________________1363 ( =14) 

16 so_whats_happening@_177_197 _200 ___ 574 __ 0 1 0 __ Mar ____ 953 ( = 19)

17 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( = 16)

18 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 _________________1055 (= 17)

19 Neckbeard93* _______ 197 _161 _ 77 ____ 435 __ 1 0 0 __________ 958 (= 18)

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). @ one month missed (Apr) 

^ one point deducted on these scores for Blazess556 (late in Jan) total of 2, (0,2)

 ... March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

... April late penalty deductions:

H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

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All scoring has been updated except for DCA as they are late reporting a final anomaly. My provisional of +7.0 is not likely to change much, and as that's outside our forecast range, the scores won't change except slightly for anyone above +1.8, so check back but don't expect more than a ripple of 1-2 point changes here and there. 

(edit May 2nd) _ The tables were upgraded to final as DCA just reported in with +7.0 (CLM document confirms this). Snowfall contest was recently updated in the March thread, and a final report will appear in the May thread. 

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