Welcome to American Weather
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Roger Smith

April 2017 temperature forecast contest

24 posts in this topic

As always, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals at

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Deadline is 06z April 1st, penalties run at 1% every 2 hours late (to 18z Apr 2nd) and thereafter it would be 1% an hour. 

Good luck! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

___________ +2.0 _ +0.8 _ --1.2 __ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.8 _ --0.7

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0       0.5       0.0           0.5       1.0       1.5           2.0       2.0       1.0 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.1  _+0.7__ +0.2___ +1.8___+1.7___+2.4____+2.9___+1.9__  -0.7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+2.1  _+1.3__    +1.0___ -0.3___+2.4___+2.8____+0.6___+1.9__  -2.1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry this is late:

DCA...NYC...BOS        ORD....ATL...IAH      PHX...DEN...SEA

+1.3...+0.7...+0.8    +2.6...+2.0...+3.5     +1.1...+1.3...-0.4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm really, really sorry about my tardiness. I know this'll cost me big time.

DCA +0.5

NYC --0.5

BOS --2.5

ORD +3.0

ATL +2.0

IAH +5.0

DEN 0.0

PHX +5.5

SEA +2.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Table of forecasts for April 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

dmillz25 ________________ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.0 __ +3.0_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.5_ +0.5

RJay ___________________ +2.5_ +2.5+2.0 __ +4.0_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ --1.0

wxdude64 ______________ +2.4_ +1.1_ +0.5 ___ +2.5_ +2.1_ +1.9 ___ +1.2_ +1.9_ --0.5

Tom ___________________ +2.1_ +1.3_ +1.0 __ --0.3_ +2.4_ +2.8 ___ +0.6_ +1.9_  --2.1

Roger Smith______________+2.0_ +0.8_ --1.2 __ +1.0_ +2.5_ +5.0 ___ +6.0_ +3.8_ --0.7

blazess556 ______________ +1.9_ +1.5_ +1.2 __ +2.8_ +2.5_ --0.3 ___ --1.5_ --0.6 _--1.3

Stebo ___________________+1.7_ +1.3_ +1.0 __ +3.0_ +2.7_ --0.5 ___ --1.7_ --0.8_ --1.5

RodneyS ________________ +1.6 _ +0.3__ 0.0 __ --0.3_ +2.4_ +2.9 ___ +0.6_ +2.7_ --2.1

 

Consensus ______________ +1.6_ +0.9_ +0.5 __ +2.6_ +2.4_ +2.5 ___ +1.4_ +1.9_ --0.7 

 

BKViking _________________+1.5_ +1.2_ +0.4 __ +3.0_ +2.7_ +2.4 ___ +1.9_ +2.2_ --0.6

Damage In Tolland ________ +1.5_ +0.5__ 0.0 __ +3.5_ +3.0 _+2.9 ___ +2.2_ +2.0_  --0.5

DonSutherland.1 __________ +1.4_ +1.0_ +0.7__ +1.4_ +2.5_ +3.2 ___ +2.3_ +2.2_ --1.1

H2OTown__Wx ___ (-10%) _ +1.3_ +0.7_ +0.8 __ +2.6_ +2.0_ +3.5 ___ +1.3_ +1.1_ --0.4

wxallannj ________________ +1.1_ +0.7_ +0.2 __ +1.8_ +1.7_ +2.4 ___ +2.9_ +1.9_ --0.7

SD _____________________ +1.0_ +0.5__ 0.0 __ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.5 ___ +2.0_ +2.0_ +1.0

Neckbeard93 ___ (-10%) ___ +0.5_ --0.5_ --2.5 __ +3.0_ +2.0_ +5.0 ____ 0.0_ +5.5_ +2.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.3_ +0.7_ +0.5 __ +1.4_ +2.0_ +1.7 ___ --1.1_ +0.9_ --1.3

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

____________________________________________________________________________

median of 16 forecasts for consensus is average of 8th and 9th ranked.  

where Normal changes color (to purple) it is also coldest, for human forecasters the extremes are marked in red and blue.

__ Edit made on April 18th was to put forecasts in correct order. Please note, I have made slight adjustments to scoring in January and March, no changes were needed for February. The changes are explained in the March thread. This is in response to the problem of having several months that turned out much different from most forecasts with a change in sign involved -- this did not fall into the already-existing expanded error range for cases of large anomalies, so I have scored low-score months from an essentially rank-ordered correlative method that removes most of the zero scores that were in the tables. Let me know if you think this is working more fairly, I think it is (and my rank went down as my zero scores were more earned than most of them). :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anomalies and projections will be updated every second day 20th to 28th and then on 29th and 30th ... yet again reality seems warmer than our forecasting range (in the east anyway).

 

______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

____ (7d) _____ +5.0_ +0.2_ --1.4 ___ +2.6_ +3.5_ +2.5 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.9

___ (10d) _____ +4.6_ +1.8_ +1.0 ___ +5.8_ +2.6_ +3.1 ___ +1.5_ +1.1_ +0.7

___ (12d) _____ +6.4_ +4.2_ +3.2 ___ +4.9_ +3.5_ +2.7 ___ +2.5_ +1.5_ +0.5

___ (15d) _____ +6.7_ +4.3_ +3.4 ___ +6.3_ +4.7_ +2.8 ___ +3.9_ +2.1_ +0.1

___ (18d) _____ +7.5_ +5.5_ +4.7 ___ +6.8_ +5.4_ +3.0 ___ +4.3_ +2.6_ +0.7

___ (20d) _____ +7.4e +4.9_ +4.1 ___ +7.0_ +5.8_ +3.3 ___ +4.8_ +2.9_ +0.7

___ (22d) _____ +7.2_ +4.1_ +3.2 ___ +6.1_ +6.2_ +3.3 ___ +3.9_ +3.1_ +1.0

___ (24d) _____ +6.2_ +3.7_ +3.0 ___ +5.9_ +5.3_ +2.5 ___ +4.1_ +3.4_ +0.8

 

___ (p30d) ____ +7.0_ +5.0_ +4.0 ___ +5.0_ +6.0_ +3.5 ___ +2.0_ +2.5_ +0.5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

oh man i completely forgot about this I havent had much time to go online lately and just got the chance to log on here. Oh well off to may, one month cant hurt too much right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No problem the way most of us are edging slowly ahead with dozens of points every month. :)

(check the March thread, I adjusted all scoring so that we didn't have all zero scores from a range of forecasts, now there's a guaranteed minimum progression of scores based on some rather low arbitrary high scores of 40 (where the old system gave 35 or less) or 50 (where it was 36-49). but when anyone gets a non-adjusted score above 50 the field has to go off the basic scoring still. So it rewards those who are bold and accurate. We had an expanded metric for those cases where most were on the right side of normal but too timid, but this brings the same sort of spread to the cases where people are also on the wrong side of normal in general and outside the normal scoring zone. It didn't really change the order that much but one or two people will notice that this method gave them a bit of a boost for forecasts that were closer than most (better than most).

Since these two posts have appeared, I should mention that the anomaly countdown is now two posts back, and some provisional scoring will be posted tomorrow after the 18th update (I plan to update after tomorrow every second day with this trend of warmer than all forecasts continuing its ugly path of destruction). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Provisional scoring for April 2017

 

Scoring is based on provisional end of month anomalies in post 19 ... when these change, the scoring will also change.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____ TOTAL

 

RJay ___________________ 30 _ 50 _ 60___ 140 ___80 _ 40 _ 80 ___ 200 _____ 340

dmillz25 ________________ 40 _ 30 _ 40 ___ 110 ___ 60 _ 30 _ 70 ___ 160 _____ 270 

Damage In Tolland ________15 _ 10 _ 20 ___ 045 ___ 70 _ 50 _ 88___ 208 _____ 253

BKViking ________________ 15 _ 24 _ 28 ___ 067 ___ 60 _ 44 _ 78 ___ 182 _____ 249

 

Consensus ______________ 16 _ 18 _ 30 ___ 064 ___ 52 _ 38 _ 80 ___ 170 _____ 234

 

wxdude64 _______________28 _ 22 _ 30 ___ 080 ___ 50 _ 32 _ 68 ___ 150 _____ 230

DonSutherland.1 __________14 _ 20 _ 34 ___ 068 ___ 28 _ 40 _ 94 ___ 162 _____ 230

H2OTown__Wx ___________13 _ 14 _ 36 ___ 063 ___ 52 _ 30 _100 ___ 182 _ 245 

__________ (-10%) _______12 _ 13 _ 32 ___ 057 ___ 47 _ 27 _ 90 ___ 164 _____ 221

blazess556 ______________ 19 _ 30 _ 44 ___ 093 ___ 56 _ 40 _ 24 ___ 120 _____ 213 

Tom ___________________ 22 _ 26 _ 40 ___ 088 ___ 00 _ 38 _ 86 ___ 124 _____ 212

Stebo __________________ 17 _ 26 _ 40 ___ 083 ___ 60 _ 44 _ 20 ___ 124 _____ 207 

wxallannj ________________11 _ 14 _ 24 ___ 049 ___ 36 _ 24 _ 78 ___ 138 _____ 187

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 03 _ 14 _ 30 ___ 047 ___ 28 _ 30 _ 64 ___ 122 _____ 169

RodneyS ________________ 16 _ 06 _ 20 ___ 042 ___ 00 _ 38 _ 88 ___ 126 _____ 168

Roger Smith______________20 _ 16 _ 00 ___ 036 ___ 20 _ 40 _ 70 ___ 130 _____ 166

Neckbeard93 _____________ 05 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 005 ___ 60 _ 30 _ 70 ___ 160 _ 165 

_________ (-10%) ________ 05 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 005 ___ 54 _ 27 _ 63 ___ 144 _____ 149

SD _____________________ 10 _ 10 _ 20 ___ 040 ___ 10 _ 10 _ 60 ___ 080 _____ 120

 

Normal __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 20 ___ 020 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 30 ___ 030 _____ 050

 

 

Provisional scoring for western and all nine contests, April 2017

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine (= rank)

 

SD ____________________100 _ 90 _ 90 ___280 _________ 400 ( = 10)

BKViking ________________ 98 _ 94 _ 78 ___ 270 _________ 519 ( = 3t)

dmillz25 _________________90 _ 80 _100___ 270 _________ 540 ( = 2 )

Damage In Tolland ________96 _ 90 _ 80 ___ 266 _________ 519 ( = 3t)

DonSutherland.1 __________94 _ 94 _ 68 ___ 256 _________ 486 ( = 5 )

wxdude64 _______________84 _ 88 _ 80 ___ 252 _________ 482 ( = 6 )

 

Consensus _______________88 _ 88 _ 76 ___ 252 _________ 486 ( = 5 t )

 

wxallannj ________________82 _ 88 _ 76 ___ 246 _________ 433 ( = 8 )

RJay ____________________90 _ 70 _ 70 ___ 230 _________ 570 ( = 1 )

H2OTown__wx ___________ 86 _ 72 _ 82 _ 240

___________ (-10%) ______ 77 _ 65 _ 74 ___ 216 _________ 437 ( = 7 )

RodneyS ________________ 72 _ 96 _ 48 ___ 216 _________ 384 ( =11 )

Tom ____________________72 _ 88 _ 48 ___ 208 _________ 420 ( = 9 )

 

Normal _________________ 60 _ 50 _ 90 ___ 200 _________ 250 ( =17 )

 

hudsonvalley21 __________ 38 _ 68 _ 64 ___ 170 _________ 339 ( =13 )

Roger Smith______________20 _ 74 _ 76 ___ 170 _________ 336 ( = 14)

Neckbeard93 ____________ 60 _ 40 _ 70 _ 170

________ (-10%) ________ 54 _ 36 _ 63 ___ 153 _________ 302 ( =16 )

blazess556 ______________30 _ 38 _ 64 ___ 132 _________ 345 ( =12 )

Stebo __________________ 26 _ 34 _ 60 ___ 120 _________ 327 ( =15 )

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Extreme Forecast Update

 

Oops, we did it again ... seven to nine stations may qualify for an extreme forecast in April. 

 

DCA looks certain with the projection +7.0 and highest forecast of +3.0 (dmillz25).

NYC very close to certain with the projection +5.0 and highest forecast of +2.5 (Rjay).

BOS also close to certain with the projection +4.0 and the highest forecast of +2.0 (Rjay).

ORD also fairly assured as the projection is +5.0 and the highest forecast is +4.0 (Rjay).

ATL looks certain with the projection +6.0 and the highest forecast +3.0 (Damage in Tolland)

IAH dropped out of contention when the projection fell from +5.0 to +3.5, this means two extreme forecasts of +5.0 are lower scoring than third highest H2OTown_Wx (+3.5) although with time penalty, DonSutherland1 at +3.2 has a higher score. This would become a win for Roger Smith at any outcome higher than +4.1. 

DEN has now dropped out of contention with the current projection at +2.0, sixth highest forecast is now high score. (SD at +2.0). 

PHX is close to becoming an extreme forecast, would need to finish +3.3 or higher, current projection is +2.5. At that outcome, third highest forecast (+2.7, RodneyS) is high score, above +3.3 then Roger Smith (forecast +3.8) is high score and gets the win while Neckbeard93 (forecast +5.5, 10% time penalty) would get a loss for any outcome below +4.9 in part because of the time penalty. At +5.0 or higher it's just a win for Neckbeard93.

SEA is also not far from being an extreme forecast as the current projection of +0.5 is colder than only two and equal to third highest Dmillz25 (SD has +1.0 and would most likely win here, as Neckbeard93 at +2.0 also has the 10% time penalty so can only win at +1.8 or higher). 

These projections will be updated and then the annual table of extreme forecast wins and losses will be added at end of month.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-Apr) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 22 for provisional April scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. Example, RJay had best scores for NYC, BOS and ORD (in April) and also for the eastern total (in April, and is high score for April. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-Apr are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 RJay _______________150 _189_186__525 ___193 _194 _231__618__1143__122.200..2..1_Feb,Apr

 2 DonSutherland.1 _____145 _122 _126 __393___182 _196 _223 __601 ___ 994 __001.112..1..1 _ Jan 

 3 blazess556 __________131 _153 _168 __452 ___156 _177 _131 __464 ___ 916 __001.000

 4 BKViking ____________115 _123 _137__375 ___144 _182 _145 __471 ___ 846 

 5 dmillz25 ____________112 _105 _114 __331 ___182 _168 _160 __510 ___ 841 __100.100

  

 6 Consensus __________102 _ 90 _105 __297 ___142 _181 _197 __520 ___ 817

 

 6 hudsonvalley21 ______ 105 _ 91 _118 __314 ___148 _154 _137 __439 ___ 753

 7 wxallannj ___________ 103 _ 92 _100 __295 ___ 77 _177 _188 __442 ___ 737 __000.010

 8 wxdude64 __________ 159 _ 78 _ 97 __334 ___136 _131 _124 __391 ___ 725 __110.000..1.0

 9 Stebo ______________ 103 _ 93 _102 __298 ___120 _192 _108 __420 ___ 718 

10 Damage in Tolland ____ 65 _ 65 _ 62 __192 ___144 _175 _200 __519 ___ 711 __000.010..0.1

 

11 Tom ________________121 _ 85 _ 93 __299 ___108 _136 _157 __401 ___ 700 __000.100

12 RodneyS _____________92 _ 42 _ 60 __194 ___125 _135 _217 __477 ___ 671 __011.100..0..1 _ Mar 

13 SD _________________124 _ 87 _ 95 __306 ___134 _111 _110 __355 ___ 661

14 H2Otown_WX ________ 79 _ 74 _ 91 __244 ___ 67 _151 _190 __408 ___ 652 __000.001

15 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

16 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

17 Roger Smith __________66 _ 51 _ 16 __133 ___ 82 _142 _207 __431 ___ 564

18 Neckbeard93*_________22 _ 27 _ 49 __098 ___148 _108 _181 __437 ___ 535

19 so_whats_happening@__65 _ 45 _ 38 __148 ___ 28 _100 _103 __231 ___ 379

 

20 Normal ____________108 _ 65 _ 76 __249 ___ 99 _ 32 _ 30 __ 161 ___ 410 ___010.000

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-Feb 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________262 _302 _309___ 873 __ 0 0 0 _ Jan _____2016 ( = 1) ___ FEB, APR

 2 wxallannj ___________232 _329 _276 ___ 837 __ 0 1 1 __________1574 ( = 5)  

 3 DonSutherland.1 _____ 265 _277 _256 ___ 798 __ 2 0 0 __________1792 ( = 2) ___ JAN 

 4 dmillz25 ____________ 204 _233 _346 ___ 783 __ 0 1 1 _________ 1624 (= 3)

 5 Roger Smith _________213 _227 _340 ___ 780 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____1344 ( = 13)

  

 6 Consensus ___________201 _275 _298 ___ 768 ________________ 1585 ( = 4)

 

 6 H20TownWx _________246 _232 _288 ___ 766 __ 0 0 1 __________1418 ( = 9)

 7 Damage in Tolland ____194 _290 _263 ___ 747 _________________ 1458 ( = 7)

 8 BKViking ____________175 _242 _312 ___ 729 _________________ 1575 ( = 4)

 9 Tom ________________143 _289 _292 ___ 724 _________________1424  ( = 8)

10 SD _________________196 _235 _256 ___ 687 __ 1 0 0 _ Apr ____ 1328 ( = 14)

 

11 RodneyS ____________184 _283 _216 ___ 683 __ 0 0 1 _________ 1354 ( =12) ___  MAR

12 wxdude64 ___________173 _248 _256 ___ 677 ________________ 1402 ( = 10)

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 151 _218 _246 ___ 615 ________________ 1368 ( = 11)

14 blazess556 __________142^_211^_230__ 583 ________________ 1499 ( = 6)

 

15 Normal _____________ 146 _180 _256 ___ 582 _________________992 ( = 18)

 

15 Stebo ______________111 _186 _278 ___ 575 _________________1293 ( =15) 

16 so_whats_happening@_177_197 _200 ___ 574 __ 0 1 0 __ Mar ____ 953 ( = 19)

17 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( = 16)

18 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 _________________1055 (= 17)

19 Neckbeard93* _______ 188 _159 _ 81 ____ 428 __ 1 0 0 __________ 963 (= 18)

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). @ one month missed (Apr) 

^ one point deducted on these scores for Blazess556 (late in Jan) total of 2, (0,2)

 ... March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

... April late penalty deductions:

H2O_Town__wx lost 48 (24,24) and Neckbeard93 lost 33 (16,17).

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.