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La Niña Winter of 2017-18


dmillz25

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Yes after Pinatubo winter of 91-92 was lame. I was a freshman at Ramapo College back then and recall a mild and nearly snowless winter. 92-93 up at Ramapo had that big nor'easter in Dec and the superstorm in March. The best winter in my 4 years there was of course 94-94. My rear wheel drive car sat buried under a glacier for 3 weeks. I think my ecology class met on Wednesdays and it was cancelled at least 6 times. 

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On 9/29/2017 at 8:31 PM, Redmorninglight said:

Yes after Pinatubo winter of 91-92 was lame. I was a freshman at Ramapo College back then and recall a mild and nearly snowless winter. 92-93 up at Ramapo had that big nor'easter in Dec and the superstorm in March. The best winter in my 4 years there was of course 94-94. My rear wheel drive car sat buried under a glacier for 3 weeks. I think my ecology class met on Wednesdays and it was cancelled at least 6 times. 

If you want cold and snow and look at the current picture going into this winter (La Niña; at least weak, possibly becoming moderate and a strengthening -PDO) the last thing I’d want right now is a massive tropical volcanic eruption. The -QBO and low solar possibly being favorable for -AO hopes would most likely be totally overrun with huge amounts of volcanic sulfate aerosols being flooded into the stratosphere, cooling and strengthening the stratospheric PV, leading to a raging +AO. If the Pacific side sucks, then you absolutely need arctic and North Atlantic blocking or you are done, over before it starts. Right now, we are seeing major cooling of the entire North Atlantic SSTs, the waters around Greenland, etc. If this continues and we see a -AMO SST configuration going into winter, that would be a very bad sign for North Atlantic blocking/Greenland blocking (-NAO) hopes cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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On 9/30/2017 at 11:47 PM, snowman19 said:

If you want cold and snow and look at the current picture going into this winter (La Niña; at least weak, possibly becoming moderate and a strengthening -PDO) the last thing I’d want right now is a massive tropical volcanic eruption. The -QBO and low solar possibly being favorable for -AO hopes would most likely be totally overrun with huge amounts of volcanic sulfate aerosols being flooded into the stratosphere, cooling and strengthening the stratospheric PV, leading to a raging +AO. If the Pacific side sucks, then you absolutely need arctic and North Atlantic blocking or you are done, over before it starts. Right now, we are seeing major cooling of the entire North Atlantic SSTs, the waters around Greenland, etc. If this continues and we see a -AMO SST configuration going into winter, that would be a very bad sign for North Atlantic blocking/Greenland blocking (-NAO) hopes cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

The volcanic eruption would more likely cause the +AO in the 18-19 winter, not this year.  There is usually a lag of 6-12 months at the very least or so at least until the impacts leading to the arctic cooling cause the AO to soar.  Pinatubo impacted the AO more so in the 92-93 winter it seemed as would be expected.  The current SST configuration works if the water east of Greenland by Iceland stays warmer  

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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The volcanic eruption would more likely cause the +AO in the 18-19 winter, not this year.  There is usually a lag of 6-12 months at the very least or so at least until the impacts leading to the arctic cooling cause the AO to soar.  Pinatubo impacted the AO more so in the 92-93 winter it seemed as would be expected.  The current SST configuration works if the water east of Greenland by Iceland stays warmer  

Yes that's a nice Newfoundland cold pool.

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On 9/12/2017 at 11:57 AM, KEITH L.I said:

I guess I'm pretty good lol..62-63 and 67-68 were cold winters but dry..below snowfall..I thought 96-97 was neutral..71-72,74-75 and 99-00 were horrid

71-72 had near average snowfall for the NYC area.

74-75 had a cold January...New England did better that year, especially in Jan 75, than farther south.

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50 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

No saw it on twitter. 

I don’t have access myself but here is what I just read on twitter. From Brett Anderson: “Based on new European model 500 mb projections, core of Arctic cold this winter would be focused over western half of #Canada”. From Ben Noll: “New ECMWF seasonal guidance holds steady on forecast of weak-mod La Nina during boreal winter 2018: Nino 3.4 bottoms out near -1.0°C in Dec. The model has trended cooler across the U.S. northern tier in Dec-Feb & is particularly wet (snowy?) northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, OHV. Meanwhile, mild temp anomalies extend from Southeast into New England, cooler west of Appalachians. Wetter (snowier?) in interior Northeast.”

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t have access myself but here is what I just read on twitter. From Brett Anderson: “Based on new European model 500 mb projections, core of Arctic cold this winter would be focused over western half of #Canada”. From Ben Noll: “New ECMWF seasonal guidance holds steady on forecast of weak-mod La Nina during boreal winter 2018: Nino 3.4 bottoms out near -1.0°C in Dec. The model has trended cooler across the U.S. northern tier in Dec-Feb & is particularly wet (snowy?) northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, OHV. Meanwhile, mild temp anomalies extend from Southeast into New England, cooler west of Appalachians. Wetter (snowier?) in interior Northeast.”

He retweeted the monthlies 

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32 minutes ago, nzucker said:

71-72 had near average snowfall for the NYC area.

74-75 had a cold January...New England did better that year, especially in Jan 75, than farther south.

both had a very good two week period...

dates.......................temp max min precip snow big snow depth
Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0....58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5"

Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5....45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8"

 

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21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah that isn't a bad look except for feb

February and March are total blow torches, but December and January look to have the cold focused over the Rockies, northern plains, upper midwest and Great Lakes. Certainly not a torch for those 2 months, but it doesn’t look all that cold here verbatim... 

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12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

February and March are total blow torches, but December and January look to have the cold focused over the Rockies, northern plains, upper midwest and Great Lakes. Certainly not a torch for those 2 months, but it doesn’t look all that cold here verbatim... 

If your going by Euro that is not a bad December and January pattern..December is a typical look of a La Nina..and by March..what the heck bring on Spring

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12 hours ago, uncle W said:

both had a very good two week period...

dates.......................temp max min precip snow big snow depth
Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0....58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5"

Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5....45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8"

 

71-72 and 74-75 were your typical mild winters of the 70's..there were a few good weeks in there in February

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3 hours ago, KEITH L.I said:

71-72 and 74-75 were your typical mild winters of the 70's..there were a few good weeks in there in February

1971 had a mild October and cold November...1974 had a cold October and mild November...both years had it's first inch of snow in January...The QBO was negative all of 74-75...it was positive all of 71-72...71-72 was the better winter...

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The longer this insane mild pattern continues the more likely some kind of very cold November and December emerges.  We saw this occur a few times in La Niña years in the last 30 years with very mild September through early November periods and they flipped and went really cold early in winter.  1989 and 1995 are the most notable.  I don't think 89 was necessarily that much above normal but there repeated mild periods in fall including just before the thanksgiving snow 

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psst. euro monthly forecast from this time last year

On 10/11/2016 at 11:54 AM, mattie g said:

I'll take the Euro monthlies for $1, please.

Big -NAO, -EPO, and PNA ridge for December with -NAO and neutral EPO for January. Yeah...we can work with that. I'm not interested in February other than I don't want it to be cold (and right now it's not looking likely that it will be), so I'd happily take my chances with what the Euro is showing right now.

 

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On 10/11/2017 at 11:44 AM, snowman19 said:

Here is the 7 day sst anomaly change, major cooling ongoing along the west coast, GOA, off Baja and across the ENSO regions. If this continues into November, it may be a signal of a full scale -PDO regime going into this winter  cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Not a good sign if you want a cold winter in the Eastern US, especially later in the season.

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This was brought up yesterday in the New England forum but HM wrote an extensive article on the QBO and La Niña winters. Years with a -QBO and a La Niña (what we have now) support a displaced further south and flatter North Pacific High/Aleutian Ridge. This results in downstream troughing/polar vortex over Alaska. Here is the link to the article: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 

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4 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Not a good sign if you want a cold winter in the Eastern US, especially later in the season.

notice the warming north atlantic waters, that's a good sign for potential blocking.   The last few years have featured cold water there and a lack of blocking overall

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

notice the warming north atlantic waters, that's a good sign for potential blocking.   The last few years have featured cold water there and a lack of blocking overall

I feel slightly more confident in a more favorable Atlantic this year, compared to the past few winters (a low threshold, I know).  But a hostile Pacific (i.e., a GOA death vortex) can spoil the party as we saw in 2012 (which was also a La Niña year, if I remember correctly).

Still way early though.....

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30 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I feel slightly more confident in a more favorable Atlantic this year, compared to the past few winters (a low threshold, I know).  But a hostile Pacific (i.e., a GOA death vortex) can spoil the party as we saw in 2012 (which was also a La Niña year, if I remember correctly).

Still way early though.....

This is very true. I posted the link for HM’s article on the role the QBO plays during La Nina’s above. Basically, positive vs negative QBO during a La Niña winter makes a huge difference

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