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Model Mayhem VII

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

dendrite is taking the over, I am on record as taking the under.

he is way smarter than me, so i will most likely be the bust.

I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. :axe:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. :axe:

dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F   ...  

I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook.   

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F   ...  

I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook.   

I think Sun and Mon will wipe it out pretty good. I'll probably have only snow banks and standing water remaining. Once the pack gets thin enough for the insolation to "peek" through it it's ovah.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think Sun and Mon will wipe it out pretty good. I'll probably have only snow banks and standing water remaining. Once the pack gets thin enough for the insolation to "peek" through it it's ovah.

Riiight.  Good point!   It's like it fights and fights and then that last gossamer couple of inches goes in a flash.  That actually happened down my way on that day after the last winter storm of the season last week.  I had like 3" solid inches of cemented grits in the front lawn and by dusk it was down to a couple of patches but mostly just wet grass and earth.  The high was 62 and the sun was unabated through true blue - zap!

So...yeah, you're pack prrooobably isn't getting to the end of Monday ...if it survives Sunday at all.  Still, one has to appreciate that sort of jolt environmental correction.   Winter to 80s inside fo a week outside of the High Plains is impressive -   

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. :axe:

well we are using CON data for this, right? to be fair, i highly doubt there is any snow anywhere near the ASOS. it might still be wet there come Tuesday, but there certainly won't be any snow. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. :axe:

25" on my lawn this morning, with about 10" SWE.  W

GFS consistently showing some mid-70s next week, but we'll see how warm Tuesday gets with SW winds blowing over the remaining foot or so of softening glacier.  Having tonight's rain one week later would not have been a good thing.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

25" on my lawn this morning, with about 10" SWE.  W

GFS consistently showing some mid-70s next week, but we'll see how warm Tuesday gets with SW winds blowing over the remaining foot or so of softening glacier.  Having tonight's rain one week later would not have been a good thing.

We're dealing with the basement flooding right now. I think I carried a couple hundred gallons of water out of there yesterday. The rain today is no help.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We're dealing with the basement flooding right now. I think I carried a couple hundred gallons of water out of there yesterday. The rain today is no help.

Our basement gets wet during melts and rain when the ground is frozen.  The best thing about the damaging drought was the dry basement for over a year.

Nothing terrible at the moment, but enough to require the dehumidifier to run and be emptied once a day.  In the past it has been shop-vac and headaches

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I've got a little submersible pump you can hook to a garden hose if you want to borrow it.

I got a Ridgid wet vac pump hoping it would fit my Craftsman vac, but no dice. Sears/KMart is so far down the crap hole that it would take 2 weeks for them to ship the Craftsman version of it to Sears. I think we'll be past the worst of the water by then.

It's not particularly deep...just persistent. I doubt it's more than a 1/2" in any spot of the basement.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F   ...  

I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook.   

March 2012 here...we had snow on the ground to start that one.  It was like 70F over snow though not 85F lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

We may be the rarer breed around here... but, there are a few of us rarefied spring enthusiasts that enjoy monitoring the collapse of winter and ensuing warm season. 

This,

24000725804 -0416 022920 30009692  

30000557510 00214 052917 31059891  

36000605408 00614 093215 31059991  

42000594709 -0514 132912 34049994

48000622019 -2215 172914 39030098

54000363428 -1413 182909 44120400

60000373343 -2413 192206 50140703 

That's the NAM FRH grid for BOS off the 12z cycle this morning. The last two digits in the far right of each row of data is the 800 mb temperature at the time interval, which is the farthest two digits on the left hand side of each row.  Such that the first row is 24 hours, or 8 am Saturday, the 800 mb temperature is -8 C  (92 -100 = -8 ...etc)

At the hour 60, which is 8 pm Sunday evening, the 800 mb temperature is + 3 C ( 103 - 100 = +3). 

This series of numbers, and it is suggestive across all guidance really ... is like a doorway.  We pass through it,...close that door, and we may never return to -5 to -10 800 mb temperatures until next Autumn sometime...  It's a really kind of symbolic seasonal change light switch there... 

I find that sort of definitive perspective interesting.  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We may be the rarer breed around here... but, there are a few of us rarefied spring enthusiasts that enjoy monitoring the collapse of winter and ensuing warm season. 

This,

24000725804 -0416 022920 30009692  

30000557510 00214 052917 31059891  

36000605408 00614 093215 31059991  

42000594709 -0514 132912 34049994

48000622019 -2215 172914 39030098

54000363428 -1413 182909 44120400

60000373343 -2413 192206 50140703 

That's the NAM FRH grid for BOS off the 12z cycle this morning. The last two digits in the far right of each row of data is the 800 mb temperature at the time interval, which is the farthest two digits on the left hand side of each row.  Such that the first row is 24 hours, or 8 am Saturday, the 800 mb temperature is -8 C  (92 -100 = -8 ...etc)

At the hour 60, which is 8 pm Sunday evening, the 800 mb temperature is + 3 C ( 103 - 100 = +3). 

This series of numbers, and it is suggestive across all guidance really ... is like a doorway.  We pass through it,...close that door, and we may never return to -5 to -10 800 mb temperatures until next Autumn sometime...  It's a really kind of symbolic seasonal change light switch there... 

I find that sort of definitive perspective interesting.  

I was thinking about the sfc equivalent of that here yesterday. I had another wedged raw high in the 30s. With the cold fropa and a little mixing we wiped that out this morning and that will probably be it for highs in the 30s until very late October or November.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

MOS slowly bumping up for this week. 

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/07/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  34  51| 28  62| 36  72| 50  77| 47  71| 42  63| 39  56| 31 31 55

  

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/07/2017  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  34  52| 31  66| 44  76| 54  79| 52  72| 49  70| 45  62| 37 37 59
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