dendrite Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: dendrite is taking the over, I am on record as taking the under. he is way smarter than me, so i will most likely be the bust. I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F ... I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F ... I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook. I think Sun and Mon will wipe it out pretty good. I'll probably have only snow banks and standing water remaining. Once the pack gets thin enough for the insolation to "peek" through it it's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think Sun and Mon will wipe it out pretty good. I'll probably have only snow banks and standing water remaining. Once the pack gets thin enough for the insolation to "peek" through it it's ovah. Riiight. Good point! It's like it fights and fights and then that last gossamer couple of inches goes in a flash. That actually happened down my way on that day after the last winter storm of the season last week. I had like 3" solid inches of cemented grits in the front lawn and by dusk it was down to a couple of patches but mostly just wet grass and earth. The high was 62 and the sun was unabated through true blue - zap! So...yeah, you're pack prrooobably isn't getting to the end of Monday ...if it survives Sunday at all. Still, one has to appreciate that sort of jolt environmental correction. Winter to 80s inside fo a week outside of the High Plains is impressive - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. well we are using CON data for this, right? to be fair, i highly doubt there is any snow anywhere near the ASOS. it might still be wet there come Tuesday, but there certainly won't be any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, dendrite said: I doubt that, but we'll see how it plays out. I'd probably put it near 50/50 right now. SW flow, sun, and 850s of 12-14C scream near 85F to me if we can dry out the soils a bit. I still need to melt another half foot of snow at home first. 25" on my lawn this morning, with about 10" SWE. W GFS consistently showing some mid-70s next week, but we'll see how warm Tuesday gets with SW winds blowing over the remaining foot or so of softening glacier. Having tonight's rain one week later would not have been a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: 25" on my lawn this morning, with about 10" SWE. W GFS consistently showing some mid-70s next week, but we'll see how warm Tuesday gets with SW winds blowing over the remaining foot or so of softening glacier. Having tonight's rain one week later would not have been a good thing. We're dealing with the basement flooding right now. I think I carried a couple hundred gallons of water out of there yesterday. The rain today is no help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're dealing with the basement flooding right now. I think I carried a couple hundred gallons of water out of there yesterday. The rain today is no help. Our basement gets wet during melts and rain when the ground is frozen. The best thing about the damaging drought was the dry basement for over a year. Nothing terrible at the moment, but enough to require the dehumidifier to run and be emptied once a day. In the past it has been shop-vac and headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The people involved in that last series of posts. Oh. I did not see that. Not much winter talk, but some (boring) temp talk. I missed the "meltdowns", but have not scrolled back to too far so could have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 45 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're dealing with the basement flooding right now. I think I carried a couple hundred gallons of water out of there yesterday. The rain today is no help. I've got a little submersible pump you can hook to a garden hose if you want to borrow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I've got a little submersible pump you can hook to a garden hose if you want to borrow it. I got a Ridgid wet vac pump hoping it would fit my Craftsman vac, but no dice. Sears/KMart is so far down the crap hole that it would take 2 weeks for them to ship the Craftsman version of it to Sears. I think we'll be past the worst of the water by then. It's not particularly deep...just persistent. I doubt it's more than a 1/2" in any spot of the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: dude that would be an amazing achievement in environmental dichotomy to see 3 or 4" of snow on the ground and a temp of 80 F ... I bet that's happened in the Plains... Like, cold wave, upslope snow storm... --> four days later, Chinook. March 2012 here...we had snow on the ground to start that one. It was like 70F over snow though not 85F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Sump pumps......ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Could be a nice little upslope event Friday night on the backside of this cut-off low... EURO on-board now. RGEM also showing 0.4-0.6" QPF on the snow charts for the NW flow zones. I'm sure most here are holding their breath :lol:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 man it's dead in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Whineminster said: man it's dead in here. After a long winter I think everyone needs a little break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Other then last night rain with some thunder and lightning, It looks like boring weather upcominng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 GFS now showing a significant rain event out at day 8 (I know - D8!!) Were that to happen following 3-4 days of 60s, it might be interesting. This week's snow survey, done April 2-5, shows 6-12" SWE in the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: GFS now showing a significant rain event out at day 8 (I know - D8!!) Were that to happen following 3-4 days of 60s, it might be interesting. GREEN UP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: GREEN UP? Or muddy waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Other then last night rain with some thunder and lightning, It looks like boring weather upcominng. I could use some dry boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I could use some dry boring. We all could, My yards a mess between the remaining snow pack, Mud, Frost and Standing water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 We may be the rarer breed around here... but, there are a few of us rarefied spring enthusiasts that enjoy monitoring the collapse of winter and ensuing warm season. This, 24000725804 -0416 022920 30009692 30000557510 00214 052917 31059891 36000605408 00614 093215 31059991 42000594709 -0514 132912 34049994 48000622019 -2215 172914 39030098 54000363428 -1413 182909 44120400 60000373343 -2413 192206 50140703 That's the NAM FRH grid for BOS off the 12z cycle this morning. The last two digits in the far right of each row of data is the 800 mb temperature at the time interval, which is the farthest two digits on the left hand side of each row. Such that the first row is 24 hours, or 8 am Saturday, the 800 mb temperature is -8 C (92 -100 = -8 ...etc) At the hour 60, which is 8 pm Sunday evening, the 800 mb temperature is + 3 C ( 103 - 100 = +3). This series of numbers, and it is suggestive across all guidance really ... is like a doorway. We pass through it,...close that door, and we may never return to -5 to -10 800 mb temperatures until next Autumn sometime... It's a really kind of symbolic seasonal change light switch there... I find that sort of definitive perspective interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We may be the rarer breed around here... but, there are a few of us rarefied spring enthusiasts that enjoy monitoring the collapse of winter and ensuing warm season. This, 24000725804 -0416 022920 30009692 30000557510 00214 052917 31059891 36000605408 00614 093215 31059991 42000594709 -0514 132912 34049994 48000622019 -2215 172914 39030098 54000363428 -1413 182909 44120400 60000373343 -2413 192206 50140703 That's the NAM FRH grid for BOS off the 12z cycle this morning. The last two digits in the far right of each row of data is the 800 mb temperature at the time interval, which is the farthest two digits on the left hand side of each row. Such that the first row is 24 hours, or 8 am Saturday, the 800 mb temperature is -8 C (92 -100 = -8 ...etc) At the hour 60, which is 8 pm Sunday evening, the 800 mb temperature is + 3 C ( 103 - 100 = +3). This series of numbers, and it is suggestive across all guidance really ... is like a doorway. We pass through it,...close that door, and we may never return to -5 to -10 800 mb temperatures until next Autumn sometime... It's a really kind of symbolic seasonal change light switch there... I find that sort of definitive perspective interesting. I was thinking about the sfc equivalent of that here yesterday. I had another wedged raw high in the 30s. With the cold fropa and a little mixing we wiped that out this morning and that will probably be it for highs in the 30s until very late October or November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 2 hours ago, dryslot said: We all could, My yards a mess between the remaining snow pack, Mud, Frost and Standing water. It's ugly out there. Need to thaw the ground and dry it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It's ugly out there. Need to thaw the ground and dry it out. My soil is clay based so it gets exceptionally ugly for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Other then last night rain with some thunder and lightning, It looks like boring weather upcominng. Boring is good this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Boring is good this time of year. From here on out, My post count like all other years will be reduced considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 It may be time to retire "model mayhem" for the season and start a spring or April pattern disco thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 MOS slowly bumping up for this week. GFSX MOS (MEX) KCON GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/07/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14|SAT CLIMO N/X 34 51| 28 62| 36 72| 50 77| 47 71| 42 63| 39 56| 31 31 55 GFSX MOS (MEX) KBDL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/07/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14|SAT CLIMO N/X 34 52| 31 66| 44 76| 54 79| 52 72| 49 70| 45 62| 37 37 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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