White Gorilla Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, ForestHillWx said: Storms of this magnitude really bring out the true colors of our posters... It's almost as if some of them need to see their pessimism typed out as a means of keeping their inner weenie hopes guarded. Or is it as simple as trolling the forum to have their fears overcome by more based analysis than they can muster. I cant imagine how brutal this place will be tomorrow if someone in lower Manhattan hears a ping against their window. According to Bernie Rayno's latest video, he doesn't think NYC goes over a foot due to mixing. Prepare for the forum to shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM is insane north and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Gfs a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think some people in the storm thread need a time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What happened to all of the 'winter is over' posts? I kinda miss them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Some people from that area act like they should be jackpotting every storm, so entitled and very snow spoiled from major hits in recent years. lol I think some of them just really hate to see any rain- they are snowfall "purists" I was like that back in the 90s, I really hated any storms that mixed. I didn't care about jackpots because frankly there was no net back then and I didn't even know how much anyone else got. But I really just never wanted to see any rain, even if the amount of snow was less. Also there are some legit people like JM who have flooding concerns. They went through a lot with Sandy and don't want to flood again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 43 minutes ago, seanick said: Are you doing it at home with a constant power source or swapping batteries instead? Always curious at what other people do during these snow storms. hey you should get deep sky stacker, it really helps with the light pollution problem, also you shouldn't need continuous power, as the camera automatically turns off in between frames and turns back on in time to take the shot and then turns back off again, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I don't have an AC adapter so I'll have to swap out batteries. I haven't done much timelapse work, except for astrophotography like you guys mentioned, so it'll probably end up pretty lousy. Just figured it'd be cool to documented the storm if I really do end up with 2 feet or something. you shouldn't need continuous power, as the camera automatically turns off in between frames and turns back on in time to take the shot and then turns back off again, etc. when I do astro I just leave the camera on the tripod in my bedroom with the window open and lay down in bed and fall asleep and wake up a few hours later and the camera's still clicking ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Funny, predictable, things I've noticed that happen every time there is a potential blockbuster storm forecast days in advance: - Rumblings of excitement when something shows up with some model agreement 7 days out - Excitement starts to build as models start to agree - Excitement level can be gauged by looking at how recently the model discussion and banter threads have been updated. > 10 minutes ago: models look generally bad 5-10 minutes: holding out hope 3-4 minutes: moderate excitement 2 minutes: steady excitement 1 minute: game on Just now: 5 alarm snow emergency - As models converge, there's giddiness: words like 'destroyed', 'absolutely destroyed', 'crushed', and my recent favorite, 'ownage' - As models depict 70+ mph winds, some pretend they feel that is bad, and say with a serious tone 'that will be dangerous, I seriously hope that doesn't happen.' Of course you do. We all do. - When it looks as though the brunt of a storm is going to miss one's house, they pretend they are happy for those in the bullseye. 'I'm happy for you guys, you deserve it.' No you're not, and no, they don't. - Sometime it gets mean, like sharks in a feeding frenzy, when it looks like its OTS or mostly rain. Depending on the situation, folks inland say things which intentionally or unintentionally tweak those missing out, like 'wow impressive rain on the coast!' or , those on the coast say 'wow, look at that sharp cutoff just west of NYC. How well defined!' - Eventually as the storm wraps up it is like closing time at the bar, and everyone is tired but friendly. 'You always make such great calls, nicely done.' - Then everyone disappears for awhile, the 'last updated' falls greater than 10 minutes - A storm shows up 10 days out, and we repeat the cycle. Seriously, it's great monitoring this forum anytime there's a threat. Good luck to everyone with this storm (really.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, seanick said: I do astrophotography too. Agreed, depends on the snowfall rates. I looked back and saw some of your work as well as Julian's (Orion and Northern Lights)- both are simply splendid! How do you deal with light pollution and star trailing? I have a tracking mount for my scope, but it's computerized and not an equatorial mount so I use a formula to figure out what exposures to use to not have star trailing- it's 180/ real focal length= max exposure in seconds and then I take hundreds of pictures at the same settings and combine them to have the effect of one very long exposure (many minutes). so for example, if I am doing 200 13 sec exposures, stacking them together gives me the effect of one 2600 sec exposure minus the star trailing (that's over 40 minutes!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Haha nailed it ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LI will likely have a slight bust when it comes to snow totals (but most likely not wind) because of mixing, and I'm worried the population will use this storm and 2015's blizzard that never was, as a reason why they'll discount future forecasts. What most people in this forum and in the general population forgot about those forecasts were the reason why Upton and Mt. Holly were so bullish. Both storms, as well as Sandy were all weekday storms. The difference between Jan. 2015, and Jan 2016 was that one was on a weekday and the other was on weekend. It's much easier to be conservative about impacts when people are already off from the work. If 2015 and possibly tomorrow's storm weren't/aren't busts, there would/could have been millions of people stranded on trains, at work, on the FDR, when they could have been at home. The NWS is a forecasting service, but it's first priority is keeping people safe. Keep that in mind, and stay off the roads no matter what tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 two questions.... where is Allsnow? What happened to Pamela? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The worst part about tracking these storms is we get it but the general public doesn't. They have no idea how painstaking the process is that we go through for 5 to 10 days out. So if there's a bust you hear oh they don't know what they're talking about. I guess I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Being north of 110th Street on the Island, guess I feel o.k. that I will hold on for as long as possible tomorrow. But considering I've seen plenty of storms switch from snow to sleet even when not predicted, seems highly likely I will go over tomorrow. I wasn't in the city then, but does anyone know if the February Presidents Day 2003 storm went to sleet ever in the city? And will Manhattan even reach three-hour blizzard criteria tomorrow? Guess I am skeptical of a true blizzard just from a front-end thump that flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, real said: Being north of 110th Street on the Island, guess I feel o.k. that I will hold on for as long as possible tomorrow. But considering I've seen plenty of storms switch from snow to sleet even when not predicted, today's dispiriting trends suggest it seems highly likely I will go over tomorrow. I wasn't in the city then, but does anyone know if the February Presidents Day 2003 storm went to sleet ever in the city? And will the Manhattan even reach three-hour blizzard criteria tomorrow? Guess I am skeptical of a true blizzard just from a front-end thump that flips. I don't believe so. I didn't in north jersey. Was in the teens/ low 20s the whole time. And sleet wasn't even in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 PDII was all snow in southeastern Nassau as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I don't believe so. I didn't in north jersey. Was in the teens/ low 20s the whole time. And sleet wasn't even in the forecast I was living near Baltimore for that storm. Sleet wasn't even in the forecast. I don't think anyone saw it coming. But that evening, while I was walking, it suddenly flipped and then the sleet lasted until morning, before it flipped back again to heavy snow around dawn for an hour or two. That unexpected changeover was the only thing that kept Baltimore from reaching 3 feet in that storm. I think it ended up with around two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, real said: I was living near Baltimore for that storm. Sleet wasn't even in the forecast. I don't think anyone saw it coming. But that evening, while I was walking, it suddenly flipped and then the sleet lasted until morning, before it flipped back again to heavy snow around dawn for an hour or two. That unexpected changeover was the only thing that kept Baltimore from reaching 3 feet in that storm. I think it ended up with around two. We have freezing drizzle at the very end of the storm. But I didn't know that mixing occurred so far north until later because the whole state pretty much saw 18 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm so excited for this storm. Hopefully it slows down a bit cause I think we won't get any big storms till at least next year. Yeah we can get some more snow this march maybe an inch or two but I think the heavy stuff is done. Hyped right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm going to raise my snow totals for the city from 16 to 20 inches Central Park: 20 Brooklyn: 17 Queens: 16 Bronx: 21 Staten Island 19 jackpot Yorktown heights 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 i'm coming down with (another) cold so this will probably be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 23z hrrr, snow falling in some areas still, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 All due respect to peoples p type preferences but even a "disappointing" result will probably puke snow and frozen trash all over the place with absolutely blistering winds. People are sweating some details that either way will probably result in a historic storm. It's March 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: All due respect to peoples p type preferences but even a "disappointing" result will probably puke snow and frozen trash all over the place with absolutely blistering winds. People are sweating some details that either way will probably result in a historic storm. It's March 13th. careful i was ripped yesterday for bringing up the date and how cool this is because it snows all the time in our area's NW this time of year... "its still winter after all" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 so is that uber torch coming, I will take it even its delayed..delayed but not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just saw Bernie Rayno's video from earlier. He loves Northwest NJ for 2 feet plus. Also mentioned that thundersnow is likely to occur here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 hours ago, White Gorilla said: According to Bernie Rayno's latest video, he doesn't think NYC goes over a foot due to mixing. Prepare for the forum to shut down. according to the TWC the snow is over in NYC by day break, changeover time is 9 AM or earlier, they revised the NYC totals to 6-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 yeah TWC guy Rizoli slicing NYC totals to 6-10 per their two models they use RPM and ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Rizoli? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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