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Hoosier

2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Looks like I may have some elevated hailers heading Indpls way from the nw.  Warned to half dollar size now in Warren County.   Good symbolic start to what may be an active spring season.

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Golfball size warned cell on sw edge of elevated storm complex nw of Indpls area and sw of LAF as DMC is strong and low level moisture is advecting.

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Had pea-sized that about covered one half of the ground from that warned cell that just went by a few minutes ago.

7V2A3812.thumb.JPG.d69763a583df530ba874ce8c6ec7ed7e.JPG

 

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Heart of storm's hail core passed sw of me by Lawrence then on se to Greenfield.  Just house rattling thunder here IMBY.  Mainly quarter size in many reports. Only 49 degrees here.  Can't believe how warm it is to the sw.

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Had some decent storms and small hail here with the Sunday night activity.

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NIU's  Gil Sebenste mentioning the possibility of svr storms and tornadoes across se IA and central IL this Sat. afternoon Mar. 25 in today's wx discussion.

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

NIU's  Gil Sebenste mentioning the possibility of svr storms and tornadoes across se IA and central IL this Sat. afternoon Mar. 25 in today's wx discussion.

I guess there could be some conditional threat if there's enough moisture/instability. We don't have a nice reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates though like we have seen in previous setups this year.

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Slight risk for southern areas tomorrow.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR/LA
   NORTHEAST TO OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the lower
   Mississippi and Tennessee valleys northward to the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   As a mid-level trough amplifies across the western US, an upstream
   impulse initially over the southern/central Plains will eject
   northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. To the south of this impulse,
   a more subtle lobe of ascent will progress east/northeastward
   towards the Tennessee Valley. The surface response will feature low
   pressure advancing northeast away from the Ozarks, reaching the
   lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Trailing to its southwest, a cold
   front will push towards the mid/lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
   As the aforementioned low tracks northeastward, warm/moist air will
   spread north/northeast across the Mississippi Valley, eventually
   reaching portions of the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few
   thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
   in response to warm advection associated with a low-level jet
   positioned over the region. While early convection and some veering
   of low-level flow may hamper the severe threat some later in the
   day, ascent associated with the primary wave, combined with modest
   heating should lead to sufficient destabilization. Guidance is also
   consistent with a plume of steeper lapse rates spreading across
   parts of the Mississippi Valley, lending greater confidence in the
   potential for some severe thunderstorms. Considering the presence of
   35-40 kt of effective shear, a few supercells/clusters and small
   bowing segments may organize by mid/late afternoon, yielding a
   threat for large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
   tornado or two through the evening hours.

   Farther north towards Indiana/Ohio, while buoyancy will be weaker,
   relatively unidirectional flow will likely yield a damaging-wind
   threat, and perhaps a brief tornado threat, with some bowing
   segments/clusters as they advance northeast. 

 

day2otlk_1730.gif.c820cc29b18a0e52e648c66ad2c82b4a.gif

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nothing confirmed on the ground yet but there was a funnel cloud near Hilliard.

just tried to look at ILN radar to find out what is going on.

KILN RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN INTO MONDAY (3/27). A NEW PART HAS BEEN ORDERED AND IS IN TRANSIT.
 

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO...

Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey
on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. 

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19 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO...

Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey
on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. 

Confirmed

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20170326_williamsburg

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22 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

Interesting radar feature in eastern Indiana tonight. It has that tropical eye look to it. 

 

radar.png

Mesolow, it was pretty wrapped up earlier too. Sometimes if there is instability around, those things could produce tornadoes.

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