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Feb 8-9 Potential Snow System


snowlover2

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49 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Could be a secondary farther south like GFS/GGEM has. Euro currently does not show this.

the models with the strongest solution scour out any chance of secondary development, (which makes sense).    The weaker solutions allow room for the second system to develop.

Will be interesting to watch what happens.   I've seen a lot of these wound up systems fall apart really fast....but maybe this one is finally the blind squirrel's nut.   

As far as our neck of the woods, our only hope here is a much weaker initial system and a much stronger second system.    IOW, we need a miracle.  IOW welcome to winter 2016/17

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29 minutes ago, buckeye said:

the models with the strongest solution scour out any chance of secondary development, (which makes sense).    The weaker solutions allow room for the second system to develop.

Will be interesting to watch what happens.   I've seen a lot of these wound up systems fall apart really fast....but maybe this one is finally the blind squirrel's nut.   

As far as our neck of the woods, our only hope here is a much weaker initial system and a much stronger second system.    IOW, we need a miracle.  IOW welcome to winter 2016/17

Buck, you don't even have the JMA and NAVGEM on your side. :(  

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33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

6z GFS shows a more robust second system behind the main storm dropping a decent area of snow especially into Ohio.

 

I noticed this too.  Actually the euro is starting to pick up on the outside chance as well with a streak of snow coming across the midwest and exiting off the MA coast.   Just a dusting for us, but from nothing to having 'something'.   GGEM says nada.   It would be ironic if our second 'snowfall' of the season was a last minute, (24hrs out), surprise like the first one was.

I wonder if we'll see a better trend with this?   Must be a result of the first system being less impressive.

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

I noticed this too.  Actually the euro is starting to pick up on the outside chance as well with a streak of snow coming across the midwest and exiting off the MA coast.   Just a dusting for us, but from nothing to having 'something'.   GGEM says nada.   It would be ironic if our second 'snowfall' of the season was a last minute, (24hrs out), surprise like the first one was.

I wonder if we'll see a better trend with this?   Must be a result of the first system being less impressive.

I always root for my own backyard first and foremost, but since I'm going to be too far north for this snow streak, hope it over performs for you guys.

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24 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Secondary wave has surprise potential.   The gfs is schizo over it.  One run it has it, the next run it loses it.

As far as the bolded, maybe for the I-95 corridor.

Although I wouldn't be surprised with some stat padding snow in your neck of the woods either.

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15 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Are we keeping this thread going for the next system which is completely separate with the wave on Wednesday? 

I split the posts into here.  Not sure this thing is actually going to be thread worthy but maybe something can trend better for a change.

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I'm pleased to greet the boards with my presence, my celebration for the potential for an inch of snow! Good Morrow Fare!

18z GFS and NAM both prog my location to receive the heavier half of what I would call a traditional "1 to 3 inch" wording of a NWS zone forecast, But I live in a fully paved part of town with no lawns, downtown. I do not expect to see more than an inch, if that, given that this system is coming right on the heels of a warm day. I will obviously welcome any higher totals, but I... I doubt it.

Nevertheless, I exclaim that it's nice to see consensual dark blue shading across model runs. I haven't seen that since December.

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Was just in the 20s this morning and should be below freezing for several hours prior to precip possibly arriving, so I'm not that concerned about ground temps.  Maybe the paved surfaces struggle a little initially if rates are too light but my bigger concern imby is getting enough precip.

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