The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers

[DarkSharkWX]

we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023

Realistically we may only get up to 16-19” average in the next up period.

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023

 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Realistically we may only get up to 16-19” average in the next up period.

Those means were already reduced.  When I moved to northern VA in the 90s the IAD "avg" was 23".  It wasn't long ago that  BWI was close to 22".  My baseline will always be set as those numbers.  I know I am getting older but I am not a fossil or anything... it's not like we are talking about 50 or 100 years ago.  But now we talk about "will BWI get BACK to 19" or will IAD get BACK to 20" but for me those numbers are already lower than what my baseline was.  

This has been going on for a while...so no its highly unlikely we get back to the climo numbers of the previous 30 year period...just like the most recent period didn't get back to the numbers of the one before and so on and so on...this trend has been happening for quite a while now.  The real questions is...has it accelerated recently or is this just a down period following the 2016 super nino.  I tend to lean down period...and that the snowfall will bounce back some.  I'll feel a lot better when we see the actual evidence of that and its not just hope.  

[Amped]

This was the least snowy winter that I have been through. Worse than 97-98, 02-03, 11-12, and 19-20 at the locations I was in at those times.

[North Balti Zen]

I'm calling it. The trolling hail mary posts from paulythegun showing 1 in a million chances at measurable snow this late seem to have stopped and opening day is Thursday and next week looks seasonally warm so...below is what the new futility marks look like.  New number 1 worst snow total ever at BWI and Dulles and 3rd worst at DCA. 3 of the top 5 worst snow total seasons ever at each airport since 2011/12 season to now. 

Here's hoping this thread does not have to be bumped at all next winter...

 

BWI:

.2 - 2022/23

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.4  - 2022/23

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

Dulles:

.4 - 2022/23

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

[MN Transplant]

15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I'm calling it. The trolling hail mary posts from paulythegun showing 1 in a million chances at measurable snow this late seem to have stopped and opening day is Thursday and next week looks seasonally warm so...below is what the new futility marks look like.  New number 1 worst snow total ever at BWI and Dulles and 3rd worst at DCA. 3 of the top 5 worst snow total seasons ever at each airport since 2011/12 season to now. 

Here's hoping this thread does not have to be bumped at all next winter...

 

BWI:

.2 - 2022/23

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.4  - 2022/23

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

Dulles:

.4 - 2022/23

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

Cleanly the worst snowfall winter if you sum or average the total of the three main climo sites.  Just awful.