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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers


North Balti Zen
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Thought I posted this earlier but internet here is shoddy. Sorry if it posts twice. 
 

No more “when we don’t get an inch of snow up here by this date” posts. There is no longer anything to comp. This winter is now a sample of 1 with no final result. We’ve never gone this far into a winter before.  
 

Who knows, since we have no comps maybe getting to Jan 15 with no snow here means we get 100” in February lol. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thought I posted this earlier but internet here is shoddy. Sorry if it posts twice. 
 

No more “when we don’t get an inch of snow up here by this date” posts. There is no longer anything to comp. This winter is now a sample of 1 with no final result. We’ve never gone this far into a winter before.  
 

Who knows, since we have no comps maybe getting to Jan 15 with no snow here means we get 100” in February lol. 

Yeah I think the entire winter is gonna stand kinda on it's own (for better or worse, lol). All kinds of mixed signals despite the goose egg on the ground so far. A nina acting more like a niño, complete with flooding in Cali and a split-flow...and warmth on the front end as opposed to cold...not so sure we can know where it's headed with certainty.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Thought I posted this earlier but internet here is shoddy. Sorry if it posts twice. 
 

No more “when we don’t get an inch of snow up here by this date” posts. There is no longer anything to comp. This winter is now a sample of 1 with no final result. We’ve never gone this far into a winter before.  
 

Who knows, since we have no comps maybe getting to Jan 15 with no snow here means we get 100” in February lol. 

Just curious, what was the latest other winter that this one has now surpassed? I'm honestly surprised that 15/16 produced that early at your location as well.

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We used to have a first 1" snow fall at BWI contest within the Department of Meteorology at UMCP.   In 1997-1998 we finally gave up tracking in late February only to find out later that BWI cashed in sometime in March.  No such luck at College Park.   I think that was the last year of the contest - not sure if it was because of lack of snow or interest.  Clearly this group would never has missed that March storm.  I'm pretty sure we won't need to wait that long this year - but ... who knows.  I did see my first flurries (more than one but never more than one at the same time) over the winter this past Saturday

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3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1913-14 and 1959-60 were Nov/Dec/Jan shutouts at DCA that still ended up above average for the winter. I don’t know the story behind either of those though.

There have only been 4 years that have been complete shutouts through January.  

  • 1889-90:  6.5"  (5" in March)
  • 1913-14:  28.6"  (19" in March)
  • 1959-60:  24.3"  (17.1" in March)
  • 1972-73:  0.1"

Of course, every other year (n = 7) with less than 1" finished below 10" total.  So, effectively two March stick saves in the 11 years that were duds through January.

 

 

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3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1913-14 and 1959-60 were Nov/Dec/Jan shutouts at DCA that still ended up above average for the winter. I don’t know the story behind either of those though.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=1rEfAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PdcEAAAAIBAJ&pg=1680,5002132&dq=march+snowstorm+1960&hl=en

https://www.gloucestercitynews.net/clearysnotebook/2010/08/i_remember_when.html

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I put my averages into monthly splits...

  Total Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2008-2022 Records 42.7 0.6 1.3 6.9 10.6 15.1 7.8 0.6

I have never gone this far into a winter with no snowfall.  The closest in my time up here was 2016 when we only had .1 in December but then had an inch of snow on Jan 12/13th.  Of course we know what happened right after...I don't see anything like that in the next few days lol.  

Going back through local coop records up here from before I lived here the furthest I had in the local records into a season without snow was 1985 when there was no snow until Jan 5.  

I scoured the climod database and found some not as local but still close coops from prior to 1970 and apparently its likely they went pretty far into January in 1959.  There was no snow at either Westminster or Hanover that winter until about 3-5" fell on January 17th.  Both locations do get significantly less snow than here though so its possible there was a marginal event in Manchester and not those lower elevation towns   But unless some snow falls today we are in completely uncharted territory up here.  

I went back to the 1940's and didn't find anything else close.  Most years there is snow by December and almost always by January, the few times there wasn't it snowed the first few days of January.

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
58 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

See this is normal 

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3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

'97/'98 is interesting.  BWI recorded snowfall in Dec, Jan and Mar for a 3.2" total.  IAD had snow in Dec, Jan, Feb for 5.9".  And yet, DCA ends up with 0.1" of pity snowfall in December.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/2/2023 at 3:12 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Per @WxUSAF in the obs thread, the totals for the mid-week mess at the airports were

.4” at IAD

.4 at DC

.2” at BWI. 

That DCA .4 total means DCA can only be the 3rd worst snowfall season ever. BWI and IAD still in running for worst snowfall season ever. 

Folks, we got a real chance at this now

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Here's what the new futility marks look like without some sort of Hail Mary event...just...woof. New number 1 worst snow total ever at BWI and Dulles and 3rd worst at DCA. 3 of the top 5 worst snow total seasons ever at each airport since 2011/12 season to now. It is...alarming as fuck. 

 

BWI:

.2 - 2022/23

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.4  - 2022/23

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

Dulles:

.4 - 2022/23

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

 

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