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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers


North Balti Zen
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YTD now:

3.0 BWI (2.3 on 3/14)

3.4 DCA (1.7 on 3/14)

7.3 Dulles (5.6 on 3/14)

That 3.0 for the season is 5th worst all-time for BWI on the seasonal snowfall list.

The 3.4 seasonal total for DCA moves them off the top 5 worst ever list.

The 7.3 for Dulles also moves them from what had been in running for their worst seasonal total ever to off the top 5 worst list.

 

Late season "save", I guess, although doesn't feel like it to me.

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17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

YTD now:

2.9 BWI (2.2 on 3/14)

3.1 DCA (1.7 on 3/14)

7.2 Dulles (5.6 on 3/14)

That bumps BWI to 5th worst all-time seasonal snowfall after being tied for 1st worst.

The 3.1 seasonal total for DCA moves them off the top 5 worst ever list.

The 7.2 for Dulles also moves them from what had been in running for their worst seasonal total ever to off the top 5 worst list.

So BWI still with a top 5 worst snowfall season, but barely.

Late season "save", I guess, although doesn't feel like it to me.

I'm seeing 3.4 for DCA, 3.2 for BWI and 7.3 for IAD. 

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  • 7 months later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...

As the rain falls on this February evening it seemed like the right time to bump this.  Here is the mountain to climb to avoid one of the worst snowfall seasons ever in my area (currently 3rd lowest since 1925)

#80: 1987-88  9.9"

#81: 1991-92  9.5"

#82: 1975-76  9.4"

#83: 2011-12  8.4"

#84: 1994-95  8.0

#85: 1949-50  8.0

#86: 1937-38  7.7"

#87: 2017-18: 7.3"

#88: 1954-55  6.7"

#89: 1930-31  5.7"

#90: 2008-09  5.1"

#91: 2001-02  4.9"

#92: 1972-73  3.0"

#93: 1931-32  1.4"

Edited through 2/17

 

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

As the rain falls on this February evening it seemed like the right time to bump this.  Here is the mountain to climb to avoid one of the worst snowfall seasons ever in my area (currently 3rd lowest since 1925)

#80: 1987-88  9.9"

#81: 1991-92  9.5"

#82: 1975-76  9.4"

#83: 2011-12  8.4"

#84: 1994-95  8.0

#85: 1949-50  8.0

#86: 1937-38  7.7"

#87: 1954-55  6.7"

#88: 1930-31  5.7"

#89: 2008-09  5.1"

#90: 2001-02  4.9"

#91: 2017-18: 3.4"

#92: 1972-73  3.0"

#93: 1931-32  1.4"

 

Congrats, you have almost caught up to the FL panhandle, and have 200% of my seasonal total.

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Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end). 

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18 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Average snowfall is 50-65%. We've had arctic blocking all winter. +PNA persistent through the Winter is our best pattern but everything in the northern hemisphere is +500mb. It's moved north 50-150 miles pretty quickly. Snowfall on the ground days is even lower. (I wrote NOAA a letter about this and all I got in response was a system-update on their end). 

Your posts always sound like you are drunk.  Don’t drink and post.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎2‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 9:26 PM, Cobalt said:

Updates on futility?

I edited my original post, but through Saturday's event there are now 6 winters in the past 93 years in this area with a lower total than what I have measured this season.  Still a pretty rough year, but hoping for at least one more snowfall in March.

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  • 1 month later...
On 2/19/2018 at 11:48 AM, WVclimo said:

I edited my original post, but through Saturday's event there are now 6 winters in the past 93 years in this area with a lower total than what I have measured this season.  Still a pretty rough year, but hoping for at least one more snowfall in March.

Well.. you got it!

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  • 1 year later...

BUMP:

Here's where we are currently on 1/21/20:

BWI: 1.8"/DCA: 0.6"/IAD: 2.9"

These are the seasonal futility numbers to keep in mind as this horror show continues:

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

2.3 - 2001/02

3.0 - 2016/2017

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

2.5 - '30/'31

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

5.9 - '97/'98

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5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

2016/17 was BAD (but not quite historic with the March 14, 2017 snow ruining the run at placing each airport on the list) - that year ended up BWI 3.5"/DCA 3.4"/IAD 7.3" .

Prior to that mid-March "save" in 2017 BWI had 1", DCA had 1.7" and Dulles also had 1.7". 

BWI only had 3.0” in 2016/17, which would place it #4 on that list.

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48 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Did that number get adjusted after 3/14/17? There was back and forth at the time about how much fell that day.

I used this:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

And the monthly reports here:

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

And they both totaled 3.0; however, LWX has never updated their top five least snowiest winters chart and I don’t know why.

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I will go with you - that winter had some screwy measurements for having so little have fallen. If that is accurate, the correct top five worst snowfall years for the reporting locations are as follows:

Here's where we are currently on 1/22/20:

BWI: 1.8"/DCA: 0.6"/IAD: 2.9"

These are the seasonal futility numbers to keep in mind as this horror show continues:

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

2.3 - 2001/02

3.0 - 2016/2017

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

2.5 - '30/'31

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

5.9 - '97/'98

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That means two of the top five worst snowfall seasons for BWI location have happened in the last decade. It has truly been huge boom or massive bust for BWI/Baltimore City area since I got here in 2009 - probably why I am constantly hunting big storms - the ones on the margins don't do much for this area of late...

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31 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That means two of the top five worst snowfall seasons for BWI location have happened in the last decade. It has truly been huge boom or massive bust for BWI/Baltimore City area since I got here in 2009 - probably why I am constantly hunting big storms - the ones on the margins don't do much for this area of late...

This is anecdotal, but I feel like we've lost all the minor 2-4" events I grew up with as a kid in the 80's and 90's. It's either WSW events or nothing. But I'm like you, hunting for the big storms.

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2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This is anecdotal, but I feel like we've lost all the minor 2-4" events I grew up with as a kid in the 80's and 90's. It's either WSW events or nothing. But I'm like you, hunting for the big storms.

Agreed - the 2-4 inch deals have been harder and harder to come by in the ten years I have been in the area - but looking at the longer record , that seems to comport with your memory from the 80s and 90s for this part of the area. Dovetails with @psuhoffman obs/thoughts in another thread wondering if the global climate trends are taking those events away from parts of the area.

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