snowman19 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 44 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro is much weaker with the backdoor cold front on Friday. Lower 70's from EWR to NYC on Friday afternoon. TTN, ACY and PHI are all 70+. We get into the lower 60's on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Then after a brief cool down from Sunday to Monday we're pushing the lower 50's again on Monday afternoon and then we're back into the middle 60's on Wednesday. Other than a few day transient period of colder weather and the possibilty of anothr brief cool down during the second week of March, I'm ready to pronounce. The operational GFS was all on its own. The GEFS looked absolutely nothing like it at all, neither do any of the other models. Huge outlier. The long range op GFS being the long range op GFS as usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Where abouts if you don't mind me asking? North Caldwell I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The operational GFS was all on its own. The GEFS looked absolutely nothing like it at all, neither do any of the other models. Huge outlier. The long range op GFS being the long range op GFS as usual... Gefs improved and it should get cold by the 1st week of March. The first 2 weeks of March is our shot of snowfall. After that , thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The operational GFS was all on its own. The GEFS looked absolutely nothing like it at all, neither do any of the other models. Huge outlier. The long range op GFS being the long range op GFS as usual... Assuming the Euro is an inferno as no one posted a day 12 snowmap yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Gefs improved and it should get cold by the 1st week of March. The first 2 weeks of March is our shot of snowfall. After that , thats it. In a climo year yes...with this year's warmth and phony long range "Great patterns" it's likely going to be much shorter than 2 weeks for our window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: North Caldwell I think. That's a nice area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Assuming the Euro is an inferno as no one posted a day 12 snowmap yet The middle part of next week is way above average followed by a return to seasonable temps around days 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Assuming the Euro is an inferno as no one posted a day 12 snowmap yet The first few days of March are a torch on the Euro, then it cools off to near normal. The 2nd week of March may be normal/near normal, then the signal is extremely strong for retrogression of the -WPO by mid-month and the beginning of another big torch. Mid-March looks to be all she wrote for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 The 18z 4k NAM backed off on the backdoor for Friday and now looks similar to the rest of the guidance. Upper 60's for NJ, near 60 in the city and 50's on Long Island instead of 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The first few days of March are a torch on the Euro, then it cools off to near normal. The 2nd week of March may be normal/near normal, then the signal is extremely strong for retrogression of the -WPO by mid-month and the beginning of another big torch. Mid-March looks to be all she wrote for winter With a chance a snow before mid month. It's funny how you only post about warmth. Check out the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: With a chance a snow before mid month. It's funny how you only post about warmth. Check out the eps. I just posted that temps go to near normal the 2nd week of March. As far as warmth, its won all winter long. December 1 to March 1 will go down as a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z 4k NAM backed off on the backdoor for Friday and now looks similar to the rest of the guidance. Upper 60's for NJ, near 60 in the city and 50's on Long Island instead of 40's. Not possible in feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not possible in feb What's not possible? It was almost 70 here over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: I just posted that temps go to near normal the 2nd week of March. As far as warmth, its won all winter long. December 1 to March 1 will go down as a torch Top 5 warmest winter for most reporting stations in the NYC area and many for the eastern 2/3 of the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 9 hours ago, NJwx85 said: What's not possible? It was almost 70 here over the weekend. It was a joke... I was told 2 days ago it's not possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 when i was a kid central park hit it's all time record of 75 degrees in central park in february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 6Z gfs gets really cold by the long range Early to mid march keeps looking good for wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 What happened to the lake cutters on the models in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6Z gfs gets really cold by the long range Early to mid march keeps looking good for wintry weather Would fit the theme this winter. 2 weeks warm followed by a cold spell. If those clippers produce and the majority of the area is above normal snowfall and temps its a win win in my book. Teleconnections IF correct this morning shows negative AO, neutral PNA and slightly negative NAO. Not sure about EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6Z gfs gets really cold by the long range Early to mid march keeps looking good for wintry weather Remember when the end of February into the beginning of March was supposed to be "very cold" on the long range GFS too? We're going to be in shorts for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 54 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6Z gfs gets really cold by the long range Early to mid march keeps looking good for wintry weather Let me ask you, how "cold" do think it's actually going to get with no snow cover, bare ground, very low soil moisture, wide open unfrozen Great Lakes, a March sun, long daylight hours, and much warmer than normal Atlantic SSTAs all along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Remember when the end of February into the beginning of March was supposed to be "very cold" on the long range GFS too? We're going to be in shorts for it We've had great patterns modeled all winter. Reality is a short burst of cold that has luckily been accompanied by snow. I do think we get one more shot of cold and snow in March, but it's quick hitting and we're back to the torch in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Let me ask you, how "cold" do think it's actually going to get with no snow cover, bare ground, very low soil moisture, wide open unfrozen Great Lakes, a March sun, long daylight hours, and much warmer than normal Atlantic SSTAs all along the coast? Not sure how low the soil moisture is at the moment. Looks like it is normal to above normal in the Northeast. http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/soil-moisture-anomalies/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: People are going to be disappointed if the short burst of colder temps after March 5th comes in dry with a suppressed storm track before temps rebound again.Would be nice to put together one last measurable event before we close the books on what little winter we had this year. Nobody on LI or CT should be complaining about this winter. We are all headed for above normal snowfall. I think it has been great, when its cold we snow, and when its not snowing, its warm. Low heating bills and above normal snowfall. win-win. I think the area is good for another moderate snowfall, which would put a good portion of CT and parts of LI over 40", for the second year in a row. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nobody on LI or CT should be complaining about this winter. We are all headed for above normal snowfall. I think it has been great, when its cold we snow, and when its not snowing, its warm. Low heating bills and above normal snowfall. win-win. I think the area is good for another moderate snowfall, which would put a good portion of CT and parts of LI over 40", for the second year in a row. Not bad. I'm at about average for snow. Maybe we're in for another 2-4" event but based on the pattern coming up it would be a lucky break at the beginning or end of a cold snap or as part of a switchover to rain. Temps-wise we were well above average, so the snow we saw was largely gone in a week or less where I am, so it's hard to go above a C- for this winter. Maybe we get one last hurrah to lift things up. Also, much of NJ is well below average for snow. Philly is still at 6" and the D.C. area a few inches or less. Going west into PA, the winter has been awful for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It was a joke... I was told 2 days ago it's not possible Yes I was also told it's not possible to have seasonal allergies in February but last Monday I could barely breathe and took a couple of benadryl lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'm at about average for snow. Maybe we're in for another 2-4" event but based on the pattern coming up it would be a lucky break at the beginning or end of a cold snap or as part of a switchover to rain. Temps-wise we were well above average, so the snow we saw was largely gone in a week or less where I am, so it's hard to go above a C- for this winter. Maybe we get one last hurrah to lift things up. Also, much of NJ is well below average for snow. Philly is still at 6" and the D.C. area a few inches or less. Going west into PA, the winter has been awful for most. I think Baltimore has like 0.7" of snow for the season and DC is barely over 1" We are pretty lucky to have our 27" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Let me ask you, how "cold" do think it's actually going to get with no snow cover, bare ground, very low soil moisture, wide open unfrozen Great Lakes, a March sun, long daylight hours, and much warmer than normal Atlantic SSTAs all along the coast? Yes, I'm actually looking forward to a nice hot summer. early 2010s style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: Not sure how low the soil moisture is at the moment. Looks like it is normal to above normal in the Northeast. http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/soil-moisture-anomalies/ I thought NW CT was in a drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 37 minutes ago, Paragon said: I thought NW CT was in a drought Drought and soil moisture are different things, i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.