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xram

Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2017

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I really don't think that dry slot makes it up here with filling 

 

Just now, White Gorilla said:

What I am thinking too.  

Yeah it kind of looks like I might see that slot but I'm thinking it stops at Mt Beacon/Stormville Mt area so you guys may just lose some intensity but keep accumulating.  I went to a sleet/pellet mix a few minutes ago but there's still a lot of snow too and it's all pouring down and piling up.

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I really don't think that dry slot makes it up here without filling 

It's gonna be really difficult with the 700mb low over like Harrisburg (look for the circulation center, not the isohypses):

lk1Am9X.gif

 

You can easily see the moisture rapidly shutting off in the mid levels...

jmasdwB.jpg

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Most guidance, possibly excluding hires models, have the heavy stuff winding down by 18z.

20"+ reports popping up in the BGM PNS.  Mostly unconfirmed.  Not sure the widespread 2-2.5" LE has/will verify.  Doubt the ratios were better than 10:1 overall.

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9 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

snowing is moving in from the west.

it has picked up here. lgt-mod.

hope you are right. Radar does not look all that great.

Sorta would a shame if the storm was over by noon.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, it looks like the 12z GFS has less than .1" LE in NJ after 17z.  And only a few .1-.4 in the HV.  I hope it's wrong.

I think some of us are probably within sight of our final totals. A general 15-20" in the valley as we all expected before the models started going ape with 3" QPF and 10"/hr snowfall rates.

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2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I think some of us are probably within sight of our final totals. A general 15-20" in the valley as we all expected before the models started going ape with 3" QPF and 10"/hr snowfall rates.

Got my storm in 4 hours. Expected it to snow until 8 pm or so

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The storm's not over by any means so any summation is premature, but it's pretty clear the best mid-level forcing ended up well NW.  I suspect final total QPF will be in the 1.5 - 2" range with roughly 10:1 ratios.  Great storm but ultimately probably slightly less snow than short term guidance indicated.

I expect some 25-30" totals in NEPA, SNY, and possibly up towards the Capital District.  They will probably end up with similar QPF but better ratios.

 

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It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus.  NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed.  The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however.  Fingers crossed.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus.  NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed.  The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however.  Fingers crossed.

Hope u are right. 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus.  NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed.  The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however.  Fingers crossed.

I know, had 4 inches from 930 to 1030 but that was really the only epic hour of this storm. Had a 50 gust too. Thought it would last longer. Have 12 on ground and  I'm dry slotted, very light sleet falling, hoping Rgem and HRR verify which still focus a heavy band over the river in a bit. 

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My winds are insane, still heavy snow, I'm right on the edge, looks like I'll escape the lighter dry slot...18.0" on the dot... just got in from my 2nd snowblow... idk why I bother, even when it stops snowing the winds gonna bury it again

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