Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, packbacker said:

Yep...NAO drives our winters down here so no surprise the cold AMO period reflected -NAO.   

The problem with the cold AMO is less significant storm systems along the east coast.  The last cold phase it was very pronounced from about 1979 onward, the first half of it was decently stormy but not the back half, hence the lousy snow winters in a good part of the northeast and new England in that 79-92 period despite several of those winters being relatively cold

[packbacker]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem with the cold AMO is less significant storm systems along the east coast.  The last cold phase it was very pronounced from about 1979 onward, the first half of it was decently stormy but not the back half, hence the lousy snow winters in a good part of the northeast and new England in that 79-92 period despite several of those winters being relatively cold

Down here it beats the heck out of an Atlantic ridge though :-)

Last warm AMO cycle lasted 30 or so years so we look to have another 5-10 years.  RDU's 30 year avg was under 6" after the last warm AMO in mid 50's and we went to almost 9" during the cool period.  Currently it's at 5.5", hard to fathom we see something close to 9" ever again.  

[packbacker]

Surprisingly low amplitude 5-8 is best for Feb winter storms in our area.  

[Cold Rain]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The warm AMO I believe is a big reason why. Many of the SE US cities show a distinct correlation to colder and snowier winters in the cold AMO.   The recent years are behaving quite a bit like the 1940s and 1950s.  The AMO seems to have less of an impact in New England and the MA where it seems the major difference is the severity of the cold when it gets very cold. Most of NYC's sub 5 degree temps occur during the cold AMO phase.  I believe the colder AMO also tends to favor less amping up of storm systems which results in flatter weaker activity which favors the SE and southern MA 

Thanks for this.  I haven't gone back and looked at historical ocean temp anomalies, but we're cooking this year everywhere.  Were any of those years in the 40s/50s similar in terms of global ssts?

22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB finally broke out the anal logs today, and the gefs and cfsv2, to get his cold February point across! We are doomed! He has as many purple and green cold maps as Pack has red hot torchy ones!!

Excellent.  Open the windows!

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

The GEFS/GEPS don't look horrible in the LR.  Haven't looked at any individual members, but the means show a fairly typical winter pattern, it looks like to me.  I don't see anything scary, although I don' see a big snowstorm pattern either.  I also can't see the EPS after 240, so they may be completely different.

As far as the indexes go:

AO - split pos vs. neg. in the LR

NAO - looks to rise solidly pos

PNA - looks to remain pos

MJO - mixed bag: UK/CMC/some Euro members bring it around to phases 3/4, while the USA takes it through 2, into the COD, and remerges in phases 7-8.

How does the CFS look today?

Here's the EPS 10-15 day

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, griteater said:

Here's the EPS 10-15 day

Hmm.... Looks like it's moving towards the gefs. 

[Cold Rain]

I believe the GFS led the way with the ginormous AK block.  Is that right?  Nice ridge signal off the SE coast with the EPS there.    At least Canada should be cold, so if we do get an accidental low to track south of us, maybe we can tap some cold air.

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I believe the GFS led the way with the ginormous AK block.  Is that right?  Nice ridge signal off the SE coast with the EPS there.    At least Canada should be cold, so if we do get an accidental low to track south of us, maybe we can tap some cold air.

That's just it CR...an accidental wave to track into us right after an arctic front has moved thru...accidents and luck, sometimes it happens

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I believe the GFS led the way with the ginormous AK block.  Is that right?  Nice ridge signal off the SE coast with the EPS there.    At least Canada should be cold, so if we do get an accidental low to track south of us, maybe we can tap some cold air.

The 12 GFS was not horrible. We would need some luck and maybe score. At day 8 it moves a weak low to our south and does indicate some light snow for central/northern NC.  

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I believe the GFS led the way with the ginormous AK block.  Is that right?  Nice ridge signal off the SE coast with the EPS there.    At least Canada should be cold, so if we do get an accidental low to track south of us, maybe we can tap some cold air.

It also ultimately will end up correct in what is now the Day 8-12 period or so when there may be a transient SER due to a stronger system up north.  Back a week ago it was strongly at odds with the EPS around day 15-16 and will probably end up being correct although it'll only be for a short period 

[Met1985]

Great discussion fellas! Snowgoose69 thanks for hanging with us. 

[Jon]

The SER pictured above by the EPS isn't a big deal to me but I know it is to others. Seeing the trough enlongated into the west is a good sign, not a bad one, for a storm on the east coast. Problem is the cold. If we get a cold dump into Canada, we can figure out the rest because there WILL be lows coming east due to split-flow. 

Here's the 5-day 500mb anomaly pattern leading up to the storm Jan 7th that gave a good chuck of our posters some wintry weather.

There was also a slight SER, and that too concerned many at the time. The problem wasn't the SER and it actually helped the system work for us, the issue was the warm gulf moisture, stout warm nose cutting into totals and giving many freezing rain and sleet. Unfortunately, unless we get some stout 850's into the SE (due to the cold dump, IF it's cold) we will have to deal with mixing...but that's nothing new! 

 

 

[MichaelJ]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The warm AMO I believe is a big reason why. Many of the SE US cities show a distinct correlation to colder and snowier winters in the cold AMO.   The recent years are behaving quite a bit like the 1940s and 1950s.  The AMO seems to have less of an impact in New England and the MA where it seems the major difference is the severity of the cold when it gets very cold. Most of NYC's sub 5 degree temps occur during the cold AMO phase.  I believe the colder AMO also tends to favor less amping up of storm systems which results in flatter weaker activity which favors the SE and southern MA 

Agree with this totally. When (sometime likely in the next 5 years) the AMO goes negative, to go along with the PDO in a negative phase, is the most promising condition for winter type weather in the SE. If you can find the graphs for both Decadal Oscillations online, you will see the correlation between the phases of the AMO/PDO and our winter season

[griteater]

12z GFS and CMC Ensembles are retrograding the AK block rather quickly into NE Siberia....maybe too quickly, but if true, that would be a short window of *possible* cold intrusion into the SE.  Pattern has been rough this winter outside of the short window with the early Jan storm.  So far it compares most favorably to a blend of 1949-1950 and 1971-1972, both +QBO/La Nina winters.  Those 2 winters diverge going into Feb (1950 is warm, 1972 is cool).

 

[packbacker]

After the big cutter day 10-11 it will be interesting to see what happens.  Ensembles agree on splitting the trop PV with a lobe just off the aleutians.  Does it shift over to AK and thus ending winter or does it keep feeding the AK/wpo/epo block.

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

After the big cutter day 10-11 it will be interesting to see what happens.  Ensembles agree on splitting the trop PV with a lobe just off the aleutians.  Does it shift over to AK and thus ending winter or does it keep feeding the AK/wpo/epo block.

I'd go with A bob! Seems logical

[packbacker]

9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'd go with A bob! Seems logical

LOL...I thought this would last a little longer then the 10th.   This would be the good ole zonal pac flood conus with warmth pattern...a ColdRain special pattern.

[griteater]

Yeah an AK block rotating to NE Siberia ain't gonna work

[Cold Rain]

Relax and reload!

[packbacker]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Relax and reload!

If the EPS is correct then we would have a few slightly BN days the next two weeks and then we would furnace.  Hard to imagine how warm this winter could end up...if EPS is correct.

[Cold Rain]

9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

If the EPS is correct then we would have a few slightly BN days the next two weeks and then we would furnace.  Hard to imagine how warm this winter could end up...if EPS is correct.

When is JB going to throw in the towel, I wonder?  Hopefully, if we have no shot at winter weather this year, we can at least break some heat records.

By the way, how did the CFS look today?  It was looking pretty good yesterday.

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

When is JB going to throw in the towel, I wonder?  Hopefully, if we have no shot at winter weather this year, we can at least break some heat records.

By the way, how did the CFS look today?  It was looking pretty good yesterday.

He's gonna throw in the towel like the trainers for Apollo Creed in Rocky 4, when winter is dead!

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah an AK block rotating to NE Siberia ain't gonna work

The funny thing is that's exactly how the 11-12 winter ultimately ended.  We had an SSW event that appeared it was finally going to change the pattern.  An AK block developed for about 1-2 weeks, it retrograded to Siberia and that was it. 

[Jon]

30 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

When is JB going to throw in the towel, I wonder?  Hopefully, if we have no shot at winter weather this year, we can at least break some heat records.

By the way, how did the CFS look today?  It was looking pretty good yesterday.

Colder. The 0-0.5+ anomaly over NC isn't anything to worry about, pretend it's 0.

[packbacker]

47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

When is JB going to throw in the towel, I wonder?  Hopefully, if we have no shot at winter weather this year, we can at least break some heat records.

By the way, how did the CFS look today?  It was looking pretty good yesterday.

He is going down with the ship.   He already issued his Feb forecast.  

Hard to believe this will be our 8 month in a row of AN and Feb looks like a shoe in for 9.  This will be 9 winters out of past 13 AN too.  Next year could be ugly with PDO potentially gone and hostile Atlantic with +QBO.   We may die ;-)

[Jon]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yeah an AK block rotating to NE Siberia ain't gonna work

 

Looking more and more likely. Didn't buy it when the GFS Op alone was showing it that far N, but it's looking likely.

JAM Seasonal going to hit big, probably...no good.

 

[mrdaddyman]

We're just plain pathetic. We can't even get snowfall out of a stinking clipper. The Euro shows rain showers with an 850 temp of -9 degrees Celsius.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

He is going down with the ship.   He already issued his Feb forecast.  

Hard to believe this will be our 8 month in a row of AN and Feb looks like a shoe in for 9.  This will be 9 winters out of past 13 AN too.  Next year could be ugly with PDO potentially gone and hostile Atlantic with +QBO.   We may die ;-)

I would be wary about the PDO.  Who'd have guessed 16 weeks ago that the pacific SSTs would flip that quick?  It was a furnace west of the US and BC coast in September and October.  

[Cold Rain]

46 minutes ago, Jon said:

Colder. The 0-0.5+ anomaly over NC isn't anything to worry about, pretend it's 0.

Thanks, Jon!  Let's see if we can squeeze it colder for another 5 days.

[mackerel_sky]

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Thanks, Jon!  Let's see if we can squeeze it colder for another 5 days.

After all this good news , on this page alone, looks like a " winter cancel" is due ! 

Winter Cancel! Thank goodness for the SSW, we wouldn't want to get any more snow!