Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I will say these storms, especially the 8th, have so much energy involved it's best to wait before you jump...long way out and run-to-run consistency hasn't been there, despite it not showing a storm in our backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The Sunday storm is about dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The Sunday storm is about dead. GEFS ensembles look pretty good for NC, 18/20 members with snow outside the mountains - a light event. 12/50 Euro members have at least a dusting. It actually has more support than the 8th storm, but the potential for anything big has all but disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 41 minutes ago, Jon said: GEFS ensembles look pretty good for NC, 18/20 members with snow outside the mountains - a light event. 12/50 Euro members have at least a dusting. It actually has more support than the 8th storm, but the potential for anything big has all but disappeared. How can these storms not be tracking to our South with the huge trough in the East being modeled by the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks great! Winter cancel with that look, fo shizzle! Best to just deal with it and begin the healing process! Next winter will be our winter! Weak Nino, prepare for glory! I"ll bet my snowman license, this don't verify!!! Not saying we'll finish BN but we want torch all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 57 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The Sunday storm is about dead. Not yet, close though!! Just a wishcasting snowman here, time is running out on us............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: CFS with the icing on the cake! The final run in all of its glory.... Is that scale percentiles? So we're looking at more than 2 SD greater than average for February? Glad I have my golf gear ready for the spring already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Realistically places like Raleigh to Atlanta can snow for another 5 weeks, the foothills/mtns even longer. But, the theme lately on the GEFS has been to evaporate the BN temps as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I am sure JB has changed his Feb forecast by now....the CFS Jon posted is just nuts. It's not easy to get 3 AN winter months but it appears we are going to high step in the endzone doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: I am sure JB has changed his Feb forecast by now....the CFS Jon posted is just nuts. It's not easy to get 3 AN winter months but it appears we are going to high step in the endzone doing it. I haven't seen it, but I am expecting it very soon!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I haven't seen it, but I am expecting it very soon!!! lol He may have just went under the bathtub water, and not be coming back up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He may have just went under the bathtub water, and not be coming back up! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Why would anyone base a forecast of the cfs? Garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Why would anyone base a forecast of the cfs? Garbage model. Could not have said it better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 JB not going with models on all month torch in the east!!! From what I watched it Still could get very interesting around here by midmonth if not before! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 29 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Why would anyone base a forecast of the cfs? Garbage model. With regards to the upcoming storms, they have ALL trended warmer and to all rains! So all the models are much warmer as you head out to the long range! Could they flip to cold next week, maybe , is it likely, probably not! Bet the streak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB not going with models on all month torch in the east!!! From what I watched it Still could get very interesting around here by midmonth if not before! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The other day he said it was going to be cold and snowy from Oklahoma- NY!? What's the deal!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: With regards to the upcoming storms, they have ALL trended warmer and to all rains! So all the models are much warmer as you head out to the long range! Could they flip to cold next week, maybe , is it likely, probably not! Bet the streak! Time to bring up those 1960 analogs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Time to bring up those 1960 analogs...... Lol! The final desperation, I actually posted something about that yesterday at the other board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The other day he said it was going to be cold and snowy from Oklahoma- NY!? What's the deal!??Watch his public video for today he still thinks it's going to be very active in the east not extremely arctic cold but moderately cold highs coming down cold enough to produce a winter storm if we can time it right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I can't see the EPS beyond 240, but if the GEFS and GEPS are right, then you can pretty much stick a fork in the rest of the winter east of the mountains. Coldest air evacuates our side of the globe. To recharge it over here, it'll likely take another week or two beyond day 15 and then another week or two to get us in a pattern favorable for transport down here. Hello mid-March. And marginal cold highs aren't going to get it done this year for most, even with good timing. We've already seen that. Given the SSTs or whatever else, we need true arctic air to plunge in and remain nearby. Unfortunately, this winter just wants to be warm, and that's not going to change. Time to accept reality, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Time to bring up those 1960 analogs...... March 1960, +QBO/-enso too, had two major winter storms the first 10 days. Always hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 53 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Why would anyone base a forecast of the cfs? Garbage model. Because the GFS and Euro both back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Both GEFS/EPS agree on phase 8 by mid month. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Both GEFS/EPS agree on phase 8 by mid month. Just saying... I've been hearing good MJO looking forecasts for like a month, and have zero cold and snow to show for it! Just don't know what to think anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I've been hearing good MJO looking forecasts for like a month, and have zero cold and snow to show for it! Just don't know what to think anymore Think warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 That's just nasty. Kinda resembles the CFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 JB- gefs 384 opposite of pattern that lead to Jan Thaw.. Horseshoe ridge over trough would mean plenty of fun in game in east!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB- gefs 384 opposite of pattern that lead to Jan Thaw.. Horseshoe ridge over trough would mean plenty of fun in game in east! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk He's like the energizer bunny of wrongness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB- gefs 384 opposite of pattern that lead to Jan Thaw.. Horseshoe ridge over trough would mean plenty of fun in game in east! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looks like EPS is getting that look in the extended too. #snowhope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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