Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Hi Res NAM seems to like some enhancement for maybe 2-3 hours in eastern areas after noon. I think overall Kevin has actually depicted this well. Most of the mesos show a nice little convergence zone from roughly CT river on east..that helps enhance things a bit. I think that will help you guys further east grab more as it tries to shear. Let's hope you can pull 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Yeah that's a nice little theta-e injection coming into it. But it will be fighting warmer air moving in just off the deck. That would be a quick 2-4 if it were just a bit colder. But it might help areas like Jerry. I might have to weenie walk Blue Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Looks like a 2-3" job out here in GC. Anything to whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 And yes, Kevin has done a good job overall with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 RGEM bumping up too. Widespread 1-2. If the low level warming is underestimated a tad near 925, gonna be some 2" totals closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM bumping up too. Widespread 1-2. If the low level warming is underestimated a tad near 925, gonna be some 2" totals closer to the coast. Nice to see the bumps. Nothing wrong with pumps and a bump. Please hammer..don't hurt em. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNz225f1230 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Looks like the 12z NAM has better lift closer to DGZ. Although system is weakening, it's doing well out west of Chicago. Hopefully some of that can make it this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the 12z NAM has better lift closer to DGZ. Although system is weakening, it's doing well out west of Chicago. Hopefully some of that can make it this way. We 4km Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 There's two areas that might get a little boost...one is a bit east as it exits stage right and the other is probably a little north closer to the vortmax track. But we will have to watch radar as things can pop anywhere. But I personally wouldn't be surprised to see a stripe closer to vortmax and then maybe a bit of injection as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's two areas that might get a little boost...one is a bit east as it exits stage right and the other is probably a little north closer to the vortmax track. But we will have to watch radar as things can pop anywhere. But I personally wouldn't be surprised to see a stripe closer to vortmax and then maybe a bit of injection as it moves east. I would agree. Probably a nice Currier and Ives deal in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 This little guy is nuking nrn IL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just called my niece to wish her a happy birthday (she's in Chicago) and told her how lucky she is to have snow on your birthday. She didn't realize it was snowing and promptly looked put the window! It took uncle weenie in Boston to let her know...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Yeah, Looking over the GFS and RGEM at 12z, Someone could sneak out a 3 spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Looking over the GFS and RGEM at 12z, Someone could sneak out a 3 spot I'm thinking a strip running 10 to 15 miles N/S of the VT/NH looks could his 2-3 if ratios are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 HRRR gone wild for ORH. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=04+Dec+2016+-+12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm thinking a strip running 10 to 15 miles N/S of the VT/NH looks good if ratios are good. Pretty potent s/w, I would not be surprised if there may be even a larger stripe to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR gone wild for ORH. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=04+Dec+2016+-+12Z lol. 4-6". The one thing I'd say we need to watch is some high ratio stuff initially. Could be some great snow growth in the initial burst and this could drop a quick 2" in like 90 minutes and that's how we might get a little bust with a 4 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: lol. 4-6". The one thing I'd say we need to watch is some high ratio stuff initially. Could be some great snow growth in the initial burst and this could drop a quick 2" in like 90 minutes and that's how we might get a little bust with a 4 spot. There is a pretty good initial burst near the DGZ on the hi res. Kind of like the initial 700WF burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Wonder if we see similar to what Illinois is seeing. Seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is a pretty good initial burst near the DGZ on the hi res. Kind of like the initial 700WF burst. Yeah there's some ML fronto that arcs down from upstate NY through VT and into MA. Could be a nice stripe for N MA from that...hopefully it holds together and clips BOS too. I think further south the best will be from some LL inflow and convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR gone wild for ORH. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=04+Dec+2016+-+12Z Jacksonville, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 NAM's looking fairly robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 RPM is pretty good along and N of pike outside of 128. A solid 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I'll take an inch and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 (that's what Kevin's wife said) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This little guy is nuking nrn IL right now. Overperformed big time in some areas pushing 10". The short range models (HRRR/RAP) caught the trend but even they ended up being somewhat underdone with the enhanced banding. Seemed like the northern stream wave amped up a bit as it got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Hoping for an inch here.... anything more is gravy.... should look and feel like winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Overperformed big time in some areas pushing 10". The short range models (HRRR/RAP) caught the trend but even they ended up being somewhat underdone with the enhanced banding. Seemed like the northern stream wave amped up a bit as it got closer. The initial band is where I have been thinking of bust potential here. It won't be as dynamic as out west there but it could produce an intense band or two that drops a quick couple inches in spots and that allows them to make a 4 spot or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Cold day today with a high of 38. 33.3 now as we all await 1-3" lolli 4's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The initial band is where I have been thinking of bust potential here. It won't be as dynamic as out west there but it could produce an intense band or two that drops a quick couple inches in spots and that allows them to make a 4 spot or something. ORH will probably pull 1/2SM perhaps in that if some of the mesos are right. Might be a good initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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