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Jim Martin

Severe Weather Risk 11/28/2016

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New tor watch issued till 11 p.m. Central for ne MS, nw AL and parts of TN.  That didn't take long as warm front is retreating northward and a trio of intensifying supercells is moving ne in Louisiana into more favorable parameters as the evening progresses.

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1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

You know it's going to be an ugly day/night when literally every shower/storm that pops up immediately has a hook on it, reminds me of all the classic southern U.S. tornado outbreaks-- and the most favorable conditions are still hours away.  

Exactly!  The wind shear with these storms popping is ridiculous because all I see are mini-supercellular structures with these storms.

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5 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

There is an unwarned cell south of Carthage that's ramping up and headed directly towards Philadelphia, MS.

Nearly every single one of those discrete cells over central and northern Mississippi are started to show signs of rotation.  The appearance of hook echos are becoming prominent with almost all of them...

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1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

Very impressive signature and possible debris ball near Morton, MS.

Yeah that's definitely a debris ball.

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COTT MS-   406 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016  

 

  ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR   NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY...

 

    AT 405 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BRANCH...OR 8   MILES NORTH OF MORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  

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SCOTT MS-   410 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016  

 

  ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR   NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY...  

 

  AT 410 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FORKVILLE...OR 8   MILES NORTH OF MORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  

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SCOTT MS-   417 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016  

 

  ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR NORTH   CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY...  

 

  AT 416 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEA

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...   NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  

 

  * UNTIL 445 PM CST     * AT 420 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARPERVILLE...   MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

 

    HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.     SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.    

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/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0053.000000T0000Z-161129T2245Z/   LEAKE MS-   431 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR   SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY...  

 

  AT 431 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WALNUT   GROVE...OR NEAR HARPERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.     SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0053.000000T0000Z-161129T2245Z/   LEAKE MS-   431 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR   SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY...  

 

  AT 431 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WALNUT   GROVE...OR NEAR HARPERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.     SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

Image-1.jpg

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ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS   441 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...   SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...     * UNTIL 530 PM CST  

 

  * AT 440 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MADDEN...OR 9   MILES NORTHWEST OF PROSPECT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.    

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11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

How far east does the favorable environment go?  Any ideas on when this turns more linear and we lose the discrete cells?

SPC considering a tor watch for west central AL, but I don't think discrete cells will last into GA.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

SPC considering a tor watch for west central AL, but I don't think discrete cells will last into GA.

yep... Should have discrete cells for several more hours, and into AL... We are not even at prime time yet.

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How far east does the favorable environment go?  Any ideas on when this turns more linear and we lose the discrete cells?


We're not even into the most favorable time yet. I would say possibly into C AL at the furthest, probably W AL.

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Lot of good structure, not anything looking too bad on velocity right this second. Once the shear increases all hell should break loose going off the structure type.

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2 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Lot of good structure, not anything looking too bad on velocity right this second. Once the shear increases all hell should break loose going off the structure type.

Yep... Low-level shear is kinda meh right now, but that'll change big time by 00Z.

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Tupelo may miss the strengthening circulation to the south, but is gonna get smacked by big hail. Matt Laubhan on WTVA is really pushing tornadogenesis soon on that cell.

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