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Ginx snewx

Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

We were talking about Jay 

Ah my source from Lyndon State College (who's really into weather and snow obviously) said 8-12" with some drifts maybe to 15" and he skinned to the peak.

I watch a lot of VT skiers/riders and those in the industry on social media and no one has claimed more than 12" that I can tell.  Although I can see how some might think more.  I've tossed a few social media reports I saw from Stowe of people saying 13-15".  With the high wind (Mansfield gusted 75mph before the anemometer crapped out or froze last night), its very hard to tell and easy to see how you get a wide variety of reports.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ah my source from Lyndon State College (who's really into weather and snow obviously) said 8-12" with some drifts maybe to 15" and he skinned to the peak.

I watch a lot of VT skiers/riders and those in the industry on social media and no one has claimed more than 12" that I can tell.  Although I can see how some might think more.  I've tossed a few social media reports I saw from Stowe of people saying 13-15".  With the high wind (Mansfield gusted 75mph before the anemometer crapped out or froze last night), its very hard to tell and easy to see how you get a wide variety of reports.

Either way it's impressive.

whether it's 11" or 13" doesn't really matter much in the grand scheme 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jay was in a classic spot for this. Awesome westerly exposure and farthest north to get the synoptic deform precip enhancement the longest. 

I think I touched on this this morning but its a common misconception that Jay faces west.  They are actually on the east side of the Spine.  Helps a lot with preservation.

JayPeak.jpg

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I think I touched on this this morning but its a common misconception that Jay faces west.  They are actually on the east side of the Spine.  Helps a lot with preservation.

JayPeak.jpg

Yeah but the spine there is so narrow. It's essentially the best of both worlds there. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Either way it's impressive.

whether it's 11" or 13" doesn't really matter much in the grand scheme 

No it doesn't at all.  Fun storm.  But it gets out of hand sometimes on social media.  All the sudden Jay got 18" while everyone else got a foot or less.  Not saying it didn't happen that way, but from what I've seen (and I've tried to get trusted reports from everywhere) it was a very even storm from south to north due to the cold air delivery with 8-12" from central VT northward at 2,000-2,500ft and higher.

Its what we do on a weather forum though...discuss reports and quality control it.  Whether its dew points in July or snowfall or 3-hour rain totals during a deluge, we like to look at it critically.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

No it doesn't at all.  Fun storm.  But it gets out of hand sometimes on social media.  All the sudden Jay got 18" while everyone else got a foot or less.  Not saying it didn't happen that way, but from what I've seen (and I've tried to get trusted reports from everywhere) it was a very even storm from south to north due to the cold air delivery with 8-12" from central VT northward at 2,000-2,500ft and higher.

Its what we do on a weather forum though...discuss reports and quality control it.  Whether its dew points in July or snowfall, we like to look at it critically.

 

I would say no matter the numbers it was great to see! I was thrilled to get out there into it a bit. It is interesting that no advisory was ever issued and it was warning level in some spots. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No it doesn't at all.  Fun storm.  But it gets out of hand sometimes on social media.  All the sudden Jay got 18" while everyone else got a foot or less.  Not saying it didn't happen that way, but from what I've seen (and I've tried to get trusted reports from everywhere) it was a very even storm from south to north due to the cold air delivery with 8-12" from central VT northward at 2,000-2,500ft and higher.

Its what we do on a weather forum though...discuss reports and quality control it.  Whether its dew points in July or snowfall or 3-hour rain totals during a deluge, we like to look at it critically.

 

I definitely agree..... social media can be a problem... and outrageous reports can spread quick.

in a storm where everyone reported between 8-12".... if someone is significantly higher, it needs to be scrutinized 

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A place like Jay should have a snow stake with a webcam. Then they would lose their slant stick reputation. 

Ive always said the irony of that whole thing is they don't even need to embellish because they are already the snowiest place up there. It's like that's not enough. It needs to be the snowiest by a much larger margin. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but the spine there is so narrow. It's essentially the best of both worlds there. 

I think its always why the backcountry area of "Big Jay" is the real breadwinner.  That place IS on the west side and every photo that comes out of there is ridiculous.

In my opinion (not arguing anything, just musing) its not that the spine is narrow but that its only peaks and valleys as opposed to a ridgeline.  Jay Peak reaches 4,000ft.  So does Mansfield/Smuggs and Sugarbush to MRG region.  However the later include more sustained 4,000ft elevations than the Jay Peak area...which make for a slightly different climate make-up.  Jay is more of a "peak" that allows air to go around it and allows for more moisture to make it through the gaps than some of the other areas. 

In terms of narrowness I don't think its any different than elsewhere...you get to the top and its one side or the other.  I mean, Mansfield is almost knife edge and so is the Sugarbush ridgeline.  I think its more the average elevation is higher in those spots but it leads to more blocking (from either side).  In New England, apparently the sweet spot for elevation is around 3,000ft if I were to even it out and make the most of both sides with regards to precipitation...you get less side to side variations while still capitalizing on orographic lift.  It can be amazing how low in the atmosphere precip events occur in the East.  Its also why MWN region is such a stark contrast.  For some reason in our climate, you want to touch 4kft but would probably prefer the mean ridgeline elevation to be in the 2-3kft range if you don't want to be screwed on either side given a certain event.  But screwed is relative.  Obviously no one on either the west slope or the east slope (I'm talking ski areas literally on those slopes, not towns further away) really gets screwed.  It can just be the difference between 14" on the west slope and 12 on the east slope. 

The real big differences come once you get into the town elevations on either side.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A place like Jay should have a snow stake with a webcam. Then they would lose their slant stick reputation. 

Ive always said the irony of that whole thing is they don't even need to embellish because they are already the snowiest place up there. It's like that's not enough. It needs to be the snowiest by a much larger margin. 

Exactly.  They get the most on average.  Same reason why Killington gets more than Stratton.  Why Sugarbush gets more than Killington.  Why Smuggs gets more than Sugarbush.  And why Jay gets more than all of us.  Jay gets the most but they also make sure they have the most in every event.  I think that's what gets some skiers and riders.  I try to be as transparent as possible and other mountains are the same, but I think Jay likes the mystic.  I have yet to see a ruler or snowstake photo from them in all the years I've been up here.  Everyone else seems to at least post something to give some validity to it.

Often the reports and emails I get, even from NWS employees that sample snow liquid equivalents up there, is not *that* much different than what some might think, but it is often slightly higher.  Its like they'll lose their following if somehow Okemo gets more snow than Jay Peak.  God forbid, in some circumstances it is snowier at Killington than Jay!  Those are the ones I question the most, when its a nor'easter coastal storm with a NW to SE gradient but Jay gets more than say Killington/Okemo when no "town level" reports come even close to verifying that.  But this event would favor precipitation further north but the cold was coming from the SW.  So it may have been a wash given the widespread 8-12" I've seen on social media from who I consider reputable sources.

 

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The wind has been meh

It blew me around a couple of times on the ME Turnpike and was pretty stout when stopped at the top of the Kancamagus. Other than that, not overly impressive. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ah my source from Lyndon State College (who's really into weather and snow obviously) said 8-12" with some drifts maybe to 15" and he skinned to the peak.

I watch a lot of VT skiers/riders and those in the industry on social media and no one has claimed more than 12" that I can tell.  Although I can see how some might think more.  I've tossed a few social media reports I saw from Stowe of people saying 13-15".  With the high wind (Mansfield gusted 75mph before the anemometer crapped out or froze last night), its very hard to tell and easy to see how you get a wide variety of reports.

So Josh lied, interesting 

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Apparently winds on the coast in SNE gusted to 58 in a couple of areas 

I had a mere pedestrian 21 mph here, Probably have some higher gust tomorrow

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ah my source from Lyndon State College (who's really into weather and snow obviously) said 8-12" with some drifts maybe to 15" and he skinned to the peak.

I watch a lot of VT skiers/riders and those in the industry on social media and no one has claimed more than 12" that I can tell.  Although I can see how some might think more.  I've tossed a few social media reports I saw from Stowe of people saying 13-15".  With the high wind (Mansfield gusted 75mph before the anemometer crapped out or froze last night), its very hard to tell and easy to see how you get a wide variety of reports.

Odd that pic of the kid standing in waist deep drifts looks a tad more than 15 ,guess he came down a different trail than your trusted source.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Odd that pic of the kid standing in waist deep drifts looks a tad more than 15 ,guess he came down a different trail than your trusted source.

Its very possible.

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Apparently winds on the coast in SNE gusted to 58 in a couple of areas 

That relatively warm water can do wonders to increase the low level lapse rates.

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A lot of wind in this storm up there. I have to imagine when the wind is like that, you really aren't going to be accurate by anything more precise than about 3". 

 

Hell, on winter hill I have had events where I legit could have called it 11" or 15". I wasn't able to be anymore precise. Sometimes the wind doesn't let you get any better than that. I usually tried to take an average of a ton of measurements that didn't look like drift crests or scoured areas. But that only gets you so accurate. There's a limit. 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some early slant sticking?

To be clear, Jay Peak or any area hasn't reported anything question (Jay hasn't even said a total)....its very tough to judge snowfall with this much wind.  Though you also don't want to get carried away.  Its tough.  Could legitimately be half a foot different in average measurements of a given area due to large scale wind transport..  So fun to finally see after all of last winter under-performing. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

To be clear, Jay Peak or any area hasn't reported anything question (Jay hasn't even said a total)....its very tough to judge snowfall with this much wind.  Though you also don't want to get carried away.  Its tough.  Could legitimately be half a foot different in average measurements of a given area due to large scale wind transport..  So fun to finally see after all of last winter under-performing. 

Hopefully it's not your biggest storm of the year...

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To be clear, Jay Peak or any area hasn't reported anything question (Jay hasn't even said a total)....its very tough to judge snowfall with this much wind.  Though you also don't want to get carried away.  Its tough.  Could legitimately be half a foot different in average measurements of a given area due to large scale wind transport..  So fun to finally see after all of last winter under-performing. 

Wind is very tough to measure snowfall, But, Yes, You need to use a larger area with more measurements to take an avg, Nonetheless, The first snow is always an exciting event especially after last year in your area

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Wind. It's my worst enemy when it comes to measurements. I've had maybe two large events not really effected by winds over the last 7 yrs.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hopefully it's not your biggest storm of the year...

After the past 15 or so years of highs and lows, I have no idea what to expect anymore... 40" or 175", who knows?

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