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Matthew

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Shawn said:

1 AM tide will be quite dicey down that way.  Heavier rains heading in... possible spin ups your way too.   Be safe!  Luckily you are a fair amount inland from CHS.

Yes but still expecting hurricane force gusts, probably up to 80mph.  Rains are definitely increasing in rates and winds gradually increasing.  CHS at 8pm sustained 24 gusts to 37.  

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

I expect after midnight, thimgs are going to get quite crazy in the Lowcountry.  I'm in Ladson/Summerville and I do expect and have prepared for power outages minimum. In best case scenario.  Definitely the strongest storm since Hugo poised to hit us. 

I don't understand why, but on ABC they keep showing higher wind for the Summerville area than near-downtown. We planned for three weeks with no power. It's better to take the excess food and water to lunch at work for however long once things return to normal than to run out and wish you had something.

I haven't checked, but does it still look like the center will be in the CHS area around the 5AM hour?

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Nice and breezy here in Raleigh tonight. Definitely thinking we see some good gusts tomorrow as the center gets near the NC/SC coastal vicinity. 

So your skilled in the art of weather, so I will ask you.....what do you make of the ILM talk earlier of low level lapse rates causing mixing in the rain shield.. 

We noticed with Hurricane Hermine last month that the strongest
winds of that event occurred on the backside of the storm within a
region where heavy rain fell into drier air, causing evaporational
cooling and a subsequent steep low-level lapse rates to develop. The
same type of event could occur Saturday night on the backside of
Matthew as drier air becomes entrained beneath the western periphery
of the heavy rain shield. 00z GFS soundings valid over Florence and
Myrtle Beach show steep lapse rates developing from the surface up
to about 1500 feet AGL Saturday evening, with winds of 60-75 mph
getting dumped down into this mixed layer from aloft. This kind of
detail is not currently in our forecasts, but I would not be
surprised at all to see a region of exceptionally strong northerly
winds develop Saturday evening behind Matthew. This same region of
strong northerly winds might arrive in Wilmington after midnight.

I know the models really pop a 850 wind field over central and eastern SC/NC as the low swings SE of us....you think that is a legit threat, Hermine ended up giving us gust to 45-50+ and she had a whole let less to work with than Matt is bringing to the party. These are some pretty sick 850's and all the models agree this area of 850's will develop like this..

hwrf_mslp_uv850_14L_12.png

 

 

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, metwannabe said:

On his current heading and speed Matthew going to LF in about 6 hours, just doesn't look like he is slowing down.....

Good thing I made extra coffee for tonight. Not like it will be all clear at that time, but at least as time goes on it would be in the direction of "improving."

 

edit: apologies if this is in the 'banter' category, but a couple near the market in downtown Charleston are walking their pet pig. I have no idea what people are thinking sometimes...

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
Just now, metwannabe said:

On his current heading and speed Matthew going to LF in about 6 hours, just doesn't look like he is slowing down.....

keep in mind that the radar doesnt always match up to the actual coast in relation to the storm all the time....so while it may look like he is headed to a certain spot he might actually hit further up from there because the earth is round and the radar is flat...the effect is compounded by the strange angle the coast takes in the SE...does any of that make sense? 

It does look however he will get close to HH, the models have him going more NE soon if he doesnt do that then just south of Charleston into Charleston proper gonna get smacked....

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

keep in mind that the radar doesnt always match up to the actual coast in relation to the storm all the time....so while it may look like he is headed to a certain spot he might actually hit further up from there because the earth is round and the radar is flat...the effect is compounded by the strange angle the coast takes in the SE...does any of that make sense? 

It does look however he will get close to HH, the models have him going more NE soon if he doesnt do that then just south of Charleston into Charleston proper gonna get smacked....

 

It looks like HHI is a possible landfall.  The northern eyewall looks the worst to me.  Where that hits is going to be the worst IMO. Between savannah and Charleston is going to be a ground zero IMO. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
Just now, LithiaWx said:

 

It looks like HHI is a possible landfall.  The northern eyewall looks the worst to me.  Where that hits is going to be the worst IMO. Between savannah and Charleston is going to be a ground zero IMO. 

Yep the models have a slow east drift to the track but it needs to get started in the next several hrs or HH is gonna get the worst then up to Charleston if the east movement can start then HH still gets hit but Charleston up towards Myrtle end up with the northern eyewall, the shape of the coast here is playing right into Matts evil hands lol.....

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yep the models have a slow east drift to the track but it needs to get started in the next several hrs or HH is gonna get the worst then up to Charleston if the east movement can start then HH still gets hit but Charleston up towards Myrtle end up with the northern eyewall, the shape of the coast here is playing right into Matts evil hands lol.....

I love that part of the country.  It's really amazing that those areas are getting hit so hard.  such a rare angle of attack.  It will interesting g to see the tale of the tape after it's over.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted
keep in mind that the radar doesnt always match up to the actual coast in relation to the storm all the time....so while it may look like he is headed to a certain spot he might actually hit further up from there because the earth is round and the radar is flat...the effect is compounded by the strange angle the coast takes in the SE...does any of that make sense? 

It does look however he will get close to HH, the models have him going more NE soon if he doesnt do that then just south of Charleston into Charleston proper gonna get smacked....



Yep makes sense, I was just extrapolating out based on current speed, it may indeed slow or turn but right now it's on a bee line for SC coast somewhere between HH and Charleston

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

I don't understand why, but on ABC they keep showing higher wind for the Summerville area than near-downtown. We planned for three weeks with no power. It's better to take the excess food and water to lunch at work for however long once things return to normal than to run out and wish you had something.

I haven't checked, but does it still look like the center will be in the CHS area around the 5AM hour?

It certainly appears that way. 

Right now, it is absolutely raining like last year's flooding rain event up here in Ladson.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I love that part of the country.  It's really amazing that those areas are getting hit so hard.  such a rare angle of attack.  It will interesting g to see the tale of the tape after it's over.

I have a niece in Savannah, my brother in law goes there to pick her up when he gets here, i ride with him from time to time it is awesome, also my cousin married a career army guy and he just retired out of the Army and is the manager of a golf course on St Simons Island....they actually arrived here in Greenville this afternoon deciding to not ride it out there....

It does seem it might be just starting to hint at a bit of a more NE motion.....

 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

I have a niece in Savannah, my brother in law goes there to pick her up when he gets here, i ride with him from time to time it is awesome, also my cousin married a career army guy and he just retired out of the Army and is the manager of a golf course on St Simons Island....they actually arrived here in Greenville this afternoon deciding to not ride it out there....

It does seem it might be just starting to hint at a bit of a more NE motion.....

 

5-6" already.  Wow.

IMG_1337.PNG

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted
Just now, DopplerWx said:

radar looks as if chs may get that northern eyewall later tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

yeah its hard to tell now that there is no southern eyewall but it appears to be moving just east of north, if the models are right that should speed up a bit....luckily it didnt go another 50-100 miles off the coast...being so close to land is slowly killing him....

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