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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

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1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I think a storm somewhere in the day 10-20 time frame seems much more plausible at this time, as the European may be implying.

There's actually some decent agreement at this time between the GFS/EURO on the day 10 system, so here's hoping!

Euro:

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

 

GFS:

gfs_z500a_us_41.png

 

Can't wait for the 252 hour map on the Euro control run to see what happens. 

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3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

There's actually some decent agreement at this time between the GFS/EURO on the day 10 system, so here's hoping!

Euro:

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

 

GFS:

gfs_z500a_us_41.png

 

Can't wait for the 252 hour map on the Euro control run to see what happens. 

Look at that thing dig. Doesn't get much better so far.

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12z Euro ensemble still has a large spread on where the snow winds up over the next 15 days. It's gotten colder though in the temp anomalies mean through Day 15 though. 

Weeklies in a few hours.

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2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Look at that thing dig. Doesn't get much better so far.

Looks good. If we can get something going in December its always good.

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Weeklies don't look bad. There looks like there will be a warmup in there somewhere. Maybe sometime around Christmas towards the end of the month?

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00z Euro still has a rain/snow mix for some areas this weekend, eastern Missouri probably has the best chance of anything. Euro also has the "Day 9" storm as well, although this run has it farther north so the snow band is across much of KS and NW Missouri. 

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Nah, it's still really early. We should have more chances than last year.

12z Canadian hits the area between me and KC really hard with the 12/8ish storm. 12z GFS doesn't cut it off like last nights 00z run and has it a bit farther NW.

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The Canadian hits me with 12-14 inches in Columbia. That would be incredible. I think somewhere in the middle of the country could get hit hard late next week but where remains to be determined. 

 

It also gives me 1-2 inches this weekend. Crazy uncertainity with that system 5 days out. 

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12z Euro shows some showers or drizzle with the system over the weekend and into Monday-Tues but temps look too warm for anything.

It also shows the 'big' system next week being too far NW for most of us. (NE/IA/SD, N KS)

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12z Euro ensembles continue to trend colder Day 10-15, previous runs had a bit of a warmup. Some of the individual members have some extreme cold, and there are less members with extreme warmth. 

As far as the 12z Ensemble members go with the 'big' system... The control has the 'snow' track farther south into S KS, N OK, SW MO, far NW AR and points NE of there. A couple members have it farther south, a couple members farther NW and a lot of members don't have a lot anything for this area.

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37 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

JoMo, educate me on what the control run is and it's relation to the ensemble members.   Thxs.

The Euro control run is a scaled up (more of a coarse/spread out resolution) version of the operational run. The ensemble members are ran off the control run.

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00z Euro brings back some possible rain/snow mix over MO with the weekend system. It doesn't have the 'big storm' at all. Just an open trough passing through, which looks due to a lot of energy interaction up north. 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

00z Euro brings back some possible rain/snow mix over MO with the weekend system. It doesn't have the 'big storm' at all. Just an open trough passing through, which looks due to a lot of energy interaction up north. 

The models are struggling pretty hard right now. I've noticed the trend with the GFS though (last 4 0z and 12z runs) has come slowly south with time while the Euro just switches between kicking everything out super fast or cutting it too hard. I'd be interested in a compromise between the two personally. 

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New CANSIPS is in for Dec, Jan, Feb. It looks.. not great, but it could be worse I guess. Looks like western Canada is where the action wants to be. 

 

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http://Record cold coming to ‘almost entire USA’ – Low temperature records set to be SHATTERED Follow @ClimateDepot Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. announced: 'I cannot recall last time I have seen such a cold anomaly forecast across almost entire USA.' 1-twitter-clipular Cold Records are going to be SHATTERED! - “By the end of NEXT week, some states will be running 36 F BELOW NORMAL." Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore, Inc.: WIDESPREAD BLAST OF COLD AIR PLUNGES FROM ALASKA TO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS INTO THE EASTERN US** By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotNovember 30, 2016 7:31 PM with 201 comments Via: IceAgeNow.info european-model-28nov16 This is according to the European model, which is very accurate this far out. # Via: http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/11/30/140-pm-widespread-blast-of-cold-air-plunges-from-alaska-to-the-western-us-early-next-week-and-then-expands-into-the-eastern-us **WIDESPREAD BLAST OF COLD AIR PLUNGES FROM ALASKA TO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EXPANDS INTO THE EASTERN US** Overview While we end November on a warm note here in the eastern US, there are changes unfolding across the Northern Hemisphere that will likely bring a widespread very cold air mass into the US next week. This cold air mass is first going to arrive in Alaska this upcoming weekend with some spots in that state plunging to 40 degrees below zero and way below normal for early December. After that, the cold air dives into the western US during the first half of next week and then it’ll likely blast into the eastern US late next week. In fact, by the time Saturday, December 10th rolls around, there may be colder-than-normal conditions all the way from Alaska to the southeastern US. Beyond that, it looks like this colder pattern will indeed have some staying power as we move deeper into the month of December. 12Z GEFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for Alaska on Saturday night; map courtesy tropicatidbits.com, NOAAThought I would post this interesting forecast :

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/11/30/140-pm-widespread-blast-of-cold-air-plunges-from-alaska-to-the-western-us-early-next-week-and-then-expands-into-the-eastern-us

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^ And then it'll probably warm up as westerly flow takes over the southern US with storm systems across Canada or the NE Pacific. Hope that changes but that's how it's looking as of this moment. 

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I'm not ready for dumb cold with no snow to speak of. However, my top analog of 1983-84 didn't feature much snow this far south until after the epic cold outbreak in December so I'm guessing I should have been prepared for a sh--crappy December. Lol. The way these types of years work is that the storms track further south with time as the season progresses. I'm pretty confident in January and February for many of us on here but I was hoping for a good bonus event in this month.

Happy met winter everyone!

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I wonder where the 3 hours came from. That's a pretty long delay. Will there even be enough time for it to run?

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It's running now. Euro still has snow with the 'big storm' in KS and NW MO.

Edit: Very cold Euro run. About 10 degrees colder here at 00z Friday than the GFS.  Makes sense because the GFS has an issue with scouring out the cold air too quickly. About 20 degrees colder here on 00z Sunday.

Edit 2: Ensembles running a bit behind but running now. Assuming that the Weeklies are going to run behind as well

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12z Euro ensembles continue the trend of delaying any warmup after the cold air makes it here next Wed-Thurs. The ensemble mean is below normal through the end of the run on Dec 16th. Still a few members that get really warm in the extended though.

Anyway, the 12z control has the 'big storm' (not very big) giving some light snows across S KS/N OK/S MO/NW AR. Still a lot of ensemble members with varying solutions on that. Looks like there could be more snow chances after that. 

Weeklies come out in the next few hours. 

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Weeklies weren't all that helpful. No real discernible pattern after the cold coming up. The surface temps do warm up around Christmas to above normal and pretty much remain that way until the end of the run in Mid-Jan. 

 

 

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