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All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread II

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

During that presser somebody was trying to get the fire chief to say something like there was no warning, but he didn't fall for it. Did a good job of saying he knew about the TOR at least 20 minutes before the first call of damage.

Great use of WEA too.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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I worked up a quick sounding for BED at 07z last night (about 20 minutes before the tornado).

I used the RAP as the background sounding, but used the 07z obs out of BED to modify it. It was (spoiler alert) warmer and more humid at BED than the RAP forecast. 73/70 instead of 71/69. More importantly the RAP had already veered winds around to 210ish, when BED was actually 12006KT. I also assumed since MQE was 16013KT (about 190 m elev.) that aloft at BED winds were similar.

Here's the result. Even those relatively small changes doubled the CAPE and added around 30-50 m2/s2 in SRH.

Big keys: CAPE is small, but no CIN and it's all in the lowest 3 km. LCL is only 217 m. Most (maybe all?) of your shear in below 3 km too.

RAP_KBED.JPG

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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that band that came through was hugely energized.. more so than any guidance i recall from prior -

again, was awakened by the sound of wind/rain lash against the house, and it roared over the top of the AC hum enough to do so.  Ayer Ma was actually embedded in to NW 'arc' of that quasi-close radar circulation structure - we probably did have some sort of propagating PP perturbation in that region.  there was no damage that i could see around town this morning.  

interesting 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that band that came through was hugely energized.. more so than any guidance i recall from prior -

again, was awakened by the sound of wind/rain lash against the house, and it roared over the top of the AC hum enough to do so.  Ayer Ma was actually embedded in to NW 'arc' of that quasi-close radar circulation structure - we probably did have some sort of propagating PP perturbation in that region.  there was no damage that i could see around town this morning.  

interesting 

BED did gust to 33 knots.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BED did gust to 33 knots.

severe can happen around here ... much to the chagrin of the hand-throwers. it's just a matter of how long one must wait - can you image the vitriol/fervor the day after 1953.  eventually ...it will happen; if the invention of the "weather modification net" doesn't come first - heh. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Great image Chris. I remember Ekster used obs, AMDAR data, and got an eye opening sounding for the Revere tornado. Low level helicity was off the charts.

Unfortunately, no such data that I can see from this morning. But MQE seems like a good proxy. Most of the good stuff really was in the lowest 500 m, which is crazy low level.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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15 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ch 5 WCVB starts newscast with and I quote "Tornado strikes without warning."  Da fuk.....?  Than they break into local coverage and people report getting phone notifications prior to it hitting.

Every. Single. Time.

Hell even the Louisiana flooding is being reported as if it came out of nowhere. To add onto what Ryan said, it's not just sloppy writing, it's lazy. The story writes itself when you take the no warning angle.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Every. Single. Time.

Hell even the Louisiana flooding is being reported as if it came out of nowhere. To add onto what Ryan said, it's not just sloppy writing, it's lazy. The story writes itself when you take the no warning angle.

I'm surprised Harvey didn't say something. He's usually one to correct that stuff.  Oh, media....

 

I even heard "There was a warning  out, but not enough time for Jane Dough..."  or something like that. Huh?   :lol:   

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm surprised Harvey didn't say something. He's usually one to correct that stuff.  Oh, media....

 

I even heard "There was a warning  out, but not enough time for Jane Dough..."  or something like that. Huh?   :lol:   

Well, and this is the kind of event that the NWS doesn't reward on a regional or national level. The mid shift will probably get recognized internally at BOX, but because there were no injuries/fatalities the higher ups don't really notice. It's really twisted.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Well, and this is the kind of event that the NWS doesn't reward on a regional or national level. The mid shift will probably get recognized internally at BOX, but because there were no injuries/fatalities the higher ups don't really notice. It's really twisted.

Jeremy Reiner from WHDH did give the NWS congrats, which was nice to hear. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jeremy Reiner from WHDH did give the NWS congrats, which was nice to hear. 

The "no warning" thing is so common, that it really is nice every once and a while to hear the story from the other angle of "there was plenty of warning, and nobody got hurt"

I'll always remember my first big tornado survey (6/5/10 outbreak) when people were shaking our hands and thanking us for 45 minutes of lead time. I don't need a trophy for every forecast, but sometimes it's nice to know we're not just shouting into the void.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The "no warning" thing is so common, that it really is nice every once and a while to hear the story from the other angle of "there was plenty of warning, and nobody got hurt"

I'll always remember my first big tornado survey (6/5/10 outbreak) when people were shaking our hands and thanking us for 45 minutes of lead time. I don't need a trophy for every forecast, but sometimes it's nice to know we're not just shouting into the void.

Yup. I think the problem up here and with the national media (in NYC) is that these things are so localized and so sudden that they all seem "without warning". I know that seems counterintuitive if there's a TOR out but the difference in coverage between a hurricane with 96 hours of wall-to-wall coverage and a tornado that happened in the night with no watch, outlook, etc is effectively without warning to the media. 

What is great is the WEA system for these high impact/low probability events. I'm guessing a lot of people got up in the middle of the night and turned on the tv for more info. Props to the AM mets who were in on time and had a production crew in place to get on tv. 

Also as Chris mentioned it's important to acknowledge the group at the WFO who got the TOR out when it could have been easily missed. Hayden and Matt are awesome and are great forecasters. I'm not surprised they got those warnings out and I'm glad they're getting some recognition for doing such a great job. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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12 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. I think the problem up here and with the national media (in NYC) is that these things are so localized and so sudden that they all seem "without warning". I know that seems counterintuitive if there's a TOR out but the difference in coverage between a hurricane with 96 hours of wall-to-wall coverage and a tornado that happened in the night with no watch, outlook, etc is effectively without warning to the media.

That's how I read the "without warning" stories like this... Even if the warning was up for an hour prior to the TOR, to these folks that went to bed with no mention of possible tornadoes in the night its an event that strikes "without warning."  Its not with regard to the actual TOR warning but a more general sudden impact event. 

It doesn't matter when the TOR warning comes out, if there wasn't 24-hours of lead up coverage about possible tornadoes then the media takes it as a "without warning" event.  Especially in a part of the US where tornadoes are relatively uncommon.  Flash floods often take on the same hyperbole... even if the Flash Flood Warning comes out with good lead time, people feel that if no one told them with certainty that cars would be floating down Main Street by 4pm on the morning newscast, its a "strikes without warning" event.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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On 8/24/2016 at 0:11 PM, powderfreak said:

That's how I read the "without warning" stories like this... Even if the warning was up for an hour prior to the TOR, to these folks that went to bed with no mention of possible tornadoes in the night its an event that strikes "without warning."  Its not with regard to the actual TOR warning but a more general sudden impact event. 

It doesn't matter when the TOR warning comes out, if there wasn't 24-hours of lead up coverage about possible tornadoes then the media takes it as a "without warning" event.  Especially in a part of the US where tornadoes are relatively uncommon.  Flash floods often take on the same hyperbole... even if the Flash Flood Warning comes out with good lead time, people feel that if no one told them with certainty that cars would be floating down Main Street by 4pm on the morning newscast, its a "strikes without warning" event.

 

On 8/24/2016 at 0:02 AM, CT Rain said:

Yup. I think the problem up here and with the national media (in NYC) is that these things are so localized and so sudden that they all seem "without warning". I know that seems counterintuitive if there's a TOR out but the difference in coverage between a hurricane with 96 hours of wall-to-wall coverage and a tornado that happened in the night with no watch, outlook, etc is effectively without warning to the media. 

What is great is the WEA system for these high impact/low probability events. I'm guessing a lot of people got up in the middle of the night and turned on the tv for more info. Props to the AM mets who were in on time and had a production crew in place to get on tv. 

Also as Chris mentioned it's important to acknowledge the group at the WFO who got the TOR out when it could have been easily missed. Hayden and Matt are awesome and are great forecasters. I'm not surprised they got those warnings out and I'm glad they're getting some recognition for doing such a great job. 

I think you guys are right. A lot of times when the story reads that there was no warning, what they really mean is this particular reporter/station had no idea tornadoes were possible. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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On 8/24/2016 at 0:02 AM, CT Rain said:

Yup. I think the problem up here and with the national media (in NYC) is that these things are so localized and so sudden that they all seem "without warning". I know that seems counterintuitive if there's a TOR out but the difference in coverage between a hurricane with 96 hours of wall-to-wall coverage and a tornado that happened in the night with no watch, outlook, etc is effectively without warning to the media. 

What is great is the WEA system for these high impact/low probability events. I'm guessing a lot of people got up in the middle of the night and turned on the tv for more info. Props to the AM mets who were in on time and had a production crew in place to get on tv. 

Also as Chris mentioned it's important to acknowledge the group at the WFO who got the TOR out when it could have been easily missed. Hayden and Matt are awesome and are great forecasters. I'm not surprised they got those warnings out and I'm glad they're getting some recognition for doing such a great job. 

true dhat!   ...one of my work colleagues lives down town in Waltham.  both her and her bf's phones went frantic at the time, buzzing across the night stands and chiming.  woke them out of a dead sleep with weather alert Tornado warning/NWS.   

granted, that's two towns away and the tor wasn't really close to them - 20 years agao, not so lucky...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Mesoscale discussion for isolated severe this afternoon...

image.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN PA...NY...WRN VT...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 081721Z - 081945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WIND GUSTS -- IS INCREASING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE INCREASING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS FIELDS AMIDST A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH CNTRL NY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS SPREADING ENEWD TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS -- IS LARGELY UNCAPPED...AND SFC HEATING BENEATH A TRANSLUCENT/PATCHY...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY IS FOSTERING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS...ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION CROSSING ERN LAKE ONTARIO/NRN NY...AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. THE BUF VWP SAMPLES 25-40 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE MESO-BETA-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING WITH EWD-SPREADING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR /AROUND 20-30 KT/...WILL KEEP THE DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL ISOLATED. FURTHERMORE...THE LACK OF STRONGER/LARGER-SCALE DEEP ASCENT WILL ALSO MINIMIZE SVR COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AS ONE OR TWO CORRIDORS OF GREATER-DENSITY SVR RISK COULD EVOLVE -- PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL NY. THE SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AS TSTMS EVENTUALLY ADVANCE TOWARD/ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.

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