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John1122

2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion

1,152 posts in this topic

Some changes in the 12z GEFS and GEPS in the LR.  AK ridge is connecting to the Scandanavian ridge.  In turn, it is adjusting the western trough eastward.  This supresses the eastern trough.  Other than that, very boring look past few days.  I don't want to be "that person" ths complains every run looks awful.  So, just been sitting back watching for new trends...

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I apologize in advance. This is in the wrong thread I know, but not sure how to let the mods know if a problem to report to the Amwx tech folks. Access to the forums via tapatalk is totally jacked up. When you enter any subforum it tells you there are no topics available. That includes the best subforum on American weather - the Tennessee Valley!

If someone in authority can report this. I'd be most appreciative!

 

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2 minutes ago, rbowman said:

I apologize in advance. This is in the wrong thread I know, but not sure how to let the mods know if a problem to report to the Amwx tech folks. Access to the forums via tapatalk is totally jacked up. When you enter any subforum it tells you there are no topics available. That includes the best subforum on American weather - the Tennessee Valley!

If someone in authority can report this. I'd be most appreciative!

 

Might not hurt to send a pm to Mr. Bob, stormtracker or wow.   They probably would like to know.

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Looking more and more like cold and bone dry as the clipper parade isn't looking as likely due to trough orientation. Still have a decent amount of winter left but barring a major turn around this is going to be a severely below average snow winter in my area.

After 3 above in a row I figured one was due. It's amazing that it's either feast or famine the last decade or so, with not a lot of middle ground. I'm at maybe 10-15 percent of normal this year with around 2 inches. Was 125-175% of normal the prior 3 years. Finished at 15-25% of normal the two years before  those three, finished at 175-225% of normal the two before that and finished at 20-25 percent of normal the two before that. 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some changes in the 12z GEFS and GEPS in the LR.  AK ridge is connecting to the Scandanavian ridge.  In turn, it is adjusting the western trough eastward.  This supresses the eastern trough.  Other than that, very boring look past few days.  I don't want to be "that person" ths complains every run looks awful.  So, just been sitting back watching for new trends...

Yeah the trends are pronounced and are not good. It's a lackluster of a look on both the euro and gfs. Looks like the same crap we have been dealing with after a short cold shot.

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29 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the trends are pronounced and are not good. It's a lackluster of a look on both the euro and gfs. Looks like the same crap we have been dealing with after a short cold shot.

Yea, I feel like we are seeing a repeat of what year was it, 2011/2012, where it always looked like there was going to be a pattern change but it never really transpired? Looks like the extended is just if anything seasonal and wet, which is good, cant complain about getting the water table back up.

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3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea, I feel like we are seeing a repeat of what year was it, 2011/2012, where it always looked like there was going to be a pattern change but it never really transpired? Looks like the extended is just if anything seasonal and wet, which is good, cant complain about getting the water table back up.

Yeah, great to get rain.  In terms of needs and wants, rain is a need and snow is a want in this area.  I am going to withhold judgement until March.   There are models out there that would end winter such as the EPS.  The 12z GEFS and GEPS suggest Feb might be interesting.  The EPS has corrected a little more eastward w its western trough after d15 during the last few runs.  I would not call it a cave but it seemed to consider the possibility.  I still suspect the western trough is not a permanent feature but less certain than say a week ago.   The EPS is more on its own today w its look of a western trough and eastern ridge.  I suspect the trough will largely be in the East, but I am less than excited about that look as well.  PV seems too far north near Hudson Bay and just doesn't press far enough to prevent AN heights to build below it.  This has more of a 89-90' feel to it for me.  A pattern that was cold in Dec left and never returned.  But I also think there is some 95-96' in there as well, meaning when it got cold it snowed.  But to be clear, I am not enthused at all.  There is enough out there to build a case that winter is over south of the Mason-Dixon Line.   There is enough evidence to convince many that winter still has life.  The debate right now is this...Are we entering a pattern change or is it just a relaxation of the pattern that has dominated this winter?  And is the potential new pattern any better than the old pattern?  That last question is the biggest concern and question for me.

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The MJO will verify w the upcoming cold.  But it illustrates the conundrum.  Drops into the circle of death where it has less influence and other drivers take over.  But what will those drivers be?

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

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IMG_0412.PNG

So, I will try to analyze a fairly meh pattern that follows the first cold shot.  I will use this frame of the 18z GEFS as it resembles much of what is modeled on the GEPS and EPS.  I have labeled the NH map w ten features that are important IMO.

1.  The AN heights connecting AK to Scandinavia.  That is normally a good thing, because it can trap part of the vortex and potentially force it south.

2.  AN heights over the Bering Straights.  IMO, for us to have colder wx we need those centered directly over AK or in the GOA to build a strong -EPO.

3.  BN heights in the Pacific need to be in areas ten and nine.

4. BN heights need to be over southern HB. (Biggest problem which if solved could counter many other factors)

5. +NAO trending less amplified as such. (Second biggest problem as even a neutral state could help.)

6.  Slightly AN heights build under the low height center over northern HB.  

7. Western Europe has AN heights which do not correlate to cold in the East.

8.  Is that trough transient or permanent?  Depends on which model and which run you look at...

9.  Generally a trough east of Hawaii is a plus.

10.  Looks like a neautral to positive WPO.

Not all of these need to be perfect or will ever be perfect....but we need more factors in our favor than we have modeled.

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2 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea, I feel like we are seeing a repeat of what year was it, 2011/2012, where it always looked like there was going to be a pattern change but it never really transpired? Looks like the extended is just if anything seasonal and wet, which is good, cant complain about getting the water table back up.

Yeah we need the rain. I'll take any precipitation currently. It seems like for the past 3 to 4 winters we are scrapping buy on whatever can transpire.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

IMG_0412.PNG

So, I will try to analyze a fairly meh pattern that follows the first cold shot.  I will use this frame of the 18z GEFS as it resembles much of what is modeled on the GEPS and EPS.  I have labeled the NH map w ten features that are important IMO.

1.  The AN heights connecting AK to Scandinavia.  That is normally a good thing, because it can trap part of the vortex and potentially force it south.

2.  AN heights over the Bering Straights.  IMO, for us to have colder wx we need those centered directly over AK or in the GOA to build a strong -EPO.

3.  BN heights in the Pacific need to be in areas ten and nine.

4. BN heights need to be over southern HB. (Biggest problem which if solved could counter many other factors)

5. +NAO trending less amplified as such. (Second biggest problem as even a neutral state could help.)

6.  Slightly AN heights build under the low height center over northern HB.  

7. Western Europe has AN heights which do not correlate to cold in the East.

8.  Is that trough transient or permanent?  Depends on which model and which run you look at...

9.  Generally a trough east of Hawaii is a plus.

10.  Looks like a neautral to positive WPO.

Not all of these need to be perfect or will ever be perfect....but we need more factors in our favor than we have modeled.

Excellent analysis. GEFS is much better at 500 than the OP in the days 5-13 range. I'm wanting to get into that time frame and see if we can cash in some snow while it's cold. The OP goes crazy with the ridge in the west and sharpens the eastern trough and shoves it east. The GEFS has a much more broad trough and shows some potential for southern stream involvement. It even had an area of snow between Houston and San Antonio at one point.  

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Might not hurt to send a pm to Mr. Bob, stormtracker or wow.   They probably would like to know.

I'M having other problems with tapatalk on my cell phone when i try and use it.Keep seeing porn ads.I deleted it thinking i might have a virus and reloaded it and seen the same ad'.Then went on my laptop and put in keyword "tapatalk" and put in americanwx and once again see porn ads.Not at all happy with this

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