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Sizeable drought affecting SNE

TalcottWx

By TalcottWx,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weathafella said:


BOS is at 4.28 from 6/1/16-9/14/16.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

Wow that's crazy.  It's a little drier than normal up here but I just added it up and am at 15.10" during that time...the Stratus at the Office has had over 20" during that time.  

North of here but in the same county the CoCoRAHS stations are 18-20".  

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted

any historical stats on drought coverage? Looking back at Jan-Apr 2002, CT-MA got into the severe category, and overall drought conditions were more widespread across the Mid-Alantic and NE. Was that the last time things were this dry over the entire region?

my lawn has actually recovered a bit in the past month...aside from some patchiness in the front that was scorched to oblivion in July/early Aug...things are decently green and growing.

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ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow that's crazy.  It's a little drier than normal up here but I just added it up and am at 15.10" during that time...the Stratus at the Office has had over 20" during that time.  

North of here but in the same county the CoCoRAHS stations are 18-20".  

South of you, I'm at 10.02.  June 2.70, July 3.52, August 3.43, September 0.37.  There hasn't been a single flow-inducing rain event in my area since May.  The Lemon Fair, a small creek that runs north along the Orwell/Sudbury border toward Shoreham, is dry with water only in pools since the end of July.  I've lived here 10 years and I haven't seen that stream dry up like this.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

any historical stats on drought coverage? Looking back at Jan-Apr 2002, CT-MA got into the severe category, and overall drought conditions were more widespread across the Mid-Alantic and NE. Was that the last time things were this dry over the entire region?

my lawn has actually recovered a bit in the past month...aside from some patchiness in the front that was scorched to oblivion in July/early Aug...things are decently green and growing.

 

I remember pretty bad drought in 1995 and also 1999 was really bad.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

South of you, I'm at 10.02.  June 2.70, July 3.52, August 3.43, September 0.37.  There hasn't been a single flow-inducing rain event in my area since May.  The Lemon Fair, a small creek that runs north along the Orwell/Sudbury border toward Shoreham, is dry with water only in pools since the end of July.  I've lived here 10 years and I haven't seen that stream dry up like this.

All things considered though 10" is at least something.  It's giving an average of 0.7-0.75" per week, but the problem is when it's convective you could get 1.5" in a couple hours and then nothing for 2 weeks.  That's much worse than like 5-hour 0.4" synoptic rain happening twice a week.  The convective rains just run off so fast.

I got lucky on Sunday in the thunderstorms, I had 1.05" when the CoCoRAHS spotter in town only had like 0.6-0.7".  With that and yesterday's 0.17", it's been wetter.  But even around here the stream flows are very low, but that's also normal this time of year (late summer seems to be the lowest the river in town gets).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

1999 was bad in PA. I remember seeing all the brown oaks on the mtns of NY and PA as I headed back to school. It was bad in BOS too, but south of BOS did better.  

 

The big issue hasn't been lack of instability...it's been consistent ridging that has helped deflect good upper level support and kept convection west and north. You have 500mb heights that have been very high and have kept things capped. The s/w's diving SE have deflected off of northern New England. Hence the temp gradient too. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

1999 was bad in PA. I remember seeing all the brown oaks on the mtns of NY and PA as I headed back to school. It was bad in BOS too, but south of BOS did better.  

 

The big issue hasn't been lack of instability...it's been consistent ridging that has helped deflect good upper level support and kept convection west and north. You have 500mb heights that have been very high and have kept things capped. The s/w's diving SE have deflected off of northern New England. Hence the temp gradient too. 

This s/wv staying positively tilted as it moves into Canada also gives me pause for widespread welcomed rains. Reeks of forcing petering out as it moves through, and precip staying more scattered. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Looking at the 6 month precip for spring/summer...Boston's driest was 1995. I remember it being really dry that summer but didn't know that was Logan airport's #1....1999 was 3rd driest.

 

2016 is 7th direst. This is since 1936 at the airport. There may have been drier years prior to that at the old site.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking at the 6 month precip for spring/summer...Boston's driest was 1995. I remember it being really dry that summer but didn't know that was Logan airport's #1....1999 was 3rd driest.

 

2016 is 7th direst. This is since 1936 at the airport. There may have been drier years prior to that at the old site.

1 1995-09-01 9.85 0
2 1965-09-01 10.58 0
3 1999-09-01 10.89 0
4 1981-09-01 11.09 0
5 1950-09-01 12.76 0
6 2016-09-01 12.84 0
7 1949-09-01 13.68 0
8 1966-09-01 13.74 0
9 1963-09-01 14.04 0
10 1969-09-01 14.46
1 1910-09-01 12.00 0
2 1907-09-01 12.84 0
3 1918-09-01 14.70 0
4 1886-09-01 14.77 0
5 1934-09-01 15.10 0
6 1883-09-01 15.46 0
7 1905-09-01 15.48 0

 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Quote 

000
AXUS71 KBOX 121744
DGTBOX
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-131800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

...MASSACHUSETTS EXPANDS DROUGHT DECLARATION...
...CONNECTICUT CONTINUES DROUGHT DECLARATION...
...RHODE ISLAND CONTINUES DROUGHT ADVISORY...

SYNOPSIS...

BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED BACK IN MARCH OF
2016 CONTINUED THROUGH AUGUST. MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUED TO RECEIVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION WAS
FOUND OVER SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS
TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. THESE COUNTIES RECEIVED
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AUGUST. HOWEVER THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DID LITTLE TO RELIEVE THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS. MOST OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AUGUST
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION FROM BOSTON SOUTH TO THE CAPE COD CANAL
RECEIVING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

ACCORDING TO THE SEPTEMBER 8TH RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR...THE MAJORITY OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND WERE
EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS. MASSACHUSETTS WAS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT /D1 TO D3/ ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE. THE SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ AREA EXTENDED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE A AREA OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WITHIN THE INTERSTATE 495 AREA INDICATED
EXTREME DROUGHT/D3/. THE AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE CAPE COD.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.

ON AUGUST 17TH THE GOVERNOR OF RHODE ISLAND ISSUED A DROUGHT
ADVISORY FOR THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND. THE DROUGHT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

ON SEPTEMBER 9TH THE MASSACHUSETTS OFFICE OF ENERGY AND
ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS EXPANDED THE DROUGHT WARNING TO INCLUDE THE
NORTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHEAST
REGION WAS UPGRADED FROM A DROUGHT WATCH. A DROUGHT WATCH WAS
CONTINUED FOR CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THE DROUGHT ADVISORY FOR
CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND WAS UPGRADED TO A DROUGHT WATCH...MAINLY FOR
CAPE COD ITSELF. A DROUGHT ADVISORY WAS CONTINUED FOR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

ON JUNE 27TH THE CONNECTICUT DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH ISSUED A
DROUGHT ADVISORY FOR THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT. HE DROUGHT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT.


SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 6...SOIL MOISTURE WAS MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER ON SEPTEMBER 3RD INDICATED THAT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WAS ABNORMALLY DRY OR DRIER. EXCEPTIONS FOLLOW...THE
CROP MOISTURE INDEX INDICATED SEVERELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CAPE COD...THE CROP MOISTURE INDICATED
EXCESSIVELY DRY FROM THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN MASSACHUSETTS
TO THE ROUTE 128 CORRIDOR.
GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 12TH...GROUNDWATER WELLS MONITORED BY THE THE UNITED
STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... WERE
MAINLY AT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE WERE TWO EXCEPTIONS...ONE WAS OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE MAINLY AT NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...WITHIN RHODE ISLAND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE A MIX OF NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVING NORMAL LEVELS AND MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF SHOWING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SOME PRIVATELY OWNED WELLS WERE REPORTED TO
HAVE GONE DRY IN BURRILLVILLE.

RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

THE MAP OF REAL-TIME STREAMFLOW AS OF SEPTEMBER 12TH COMPARED TO
HISTORIC STREAMFLOW FOR THE DAY OF THE YEAR AS ISSUED BY THE USGS
SHOWED THAT THE MAJORITY OF MONITORED RIVERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WERE RUNNING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITHIN THE AREAS OF MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...THERE WERE 16 GAGE SITES THAT WERE AT
RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR THE DATE OF SEPTEMBER 12TH.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.

FARMERS ARE HAVING TO IRRIGATE THEIR CROPS MUCH MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
DURING THE SUMMER. IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...IF THERE IS NOT
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE AN IMPACT ON THE ABILITY OF SOME
CRANBERRY GROWERS TO HARVEST THEIR CROPS.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...A SEPTEMBER 7TH REPORT FROM MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION...INDICATED UPWARDS OF 155
WATER DISTRICTS HAD SOME DEGREE OF WATER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE
STATE.

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...A JULY 26TH REPORT FROM THE CT
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH INDICATED THAT MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS
WERE IN PLACE IN SOUTHINGTON. VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS COVERED BY AQUARION WATER AND CONNECTICUT WATER
COMPANY. THE UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT HAD A STAGE 1A WATER
CONSERVATION ALERT IN PLACE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PAST 3 MONTHS. FOR THE MONTHS OF JUNE...JULY AND
AUGUST...RAINFALL WAS LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THE RAINFALL WAS
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

LOOKING AT OBSERVED RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER 1 TO SEPTEMBER
11...TOTALS RANGED FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AREA RANGED FROM 55 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR AFTERNOON...IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 19 TO 25...ISSUED BY THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...INDICATES TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER ISSUED ON AUGUST 31 BY CPC
INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH.
FOR SEPTEMBER THE CHANCE IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER ISSUED AUGUST 18 BY CPC INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS THREE MONTH PERIOD. THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
THREE MONTH PERIOD IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

WITH THE BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS...RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE SHOWING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ALSO IMPACTED ARE GROUND WATER LEVELS, WHICH AT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OCTOBER 13...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES...

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NORTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.NRCC.CORNELL.EDU

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV 
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV 
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...HTTP://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC
DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE
AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
445 MYLES STANDISH BLVD 
TAUNTON MA 02780
PHONE...508-823-1900 
[email protected]

$$


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Just now, OceanStWx said:

I feel like a lot of people may be crying screw job, while others rejoice under a heavy shower.

PWATs will be in place, I just worry we don't realize the full potential.

I haven't seen much modeling yet but from what I did see the forcing did look rather meager.  I'd favor western areas for best rains.

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ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

All things considered though 10" is at least something.  It's giving an average of 0.7-0.75" per week, but the problem is when it's convective you could get 1.5" in a couple hours and then nothing for 2 weeks.  That's much worse than like 5-hour 0.4" synoptic rain happening twice a week.  The convective rains just run off so fast.

I got lucky on Sunday in the thunderstorms, I had 1.05" when the CoCoRAHS spotter in town only had like 0.6-0.7".  With that and yesterday's 0.17", it's been wetter.  But even around here the stream flows are very low, but that's also normal this time of year (late summer seems to be the lowest the river in town gets).

Given the dry soil conditions and the state of streamflow area here, I was surprised that I had even 10 inches.  I was expecting close to six.  But here's a breakdown of the precipitation that better explains the dryness.

2.10 fell on two days (June 29 and July 2).

Another 1.44 fell on June 6.

1.56 fell over a four day stretch (July 8-11). 

That's 5.10 inches of the 10.02 on just 7 days out of 106 days.  What's left is 4.92 inches spread over the remaining 99 days, or roughly 0.35 inches per 7 days.  Ouch.  These rain events have been mostly meaningless, though, just enough to keep the lawns green and the trees from showing signs of stress.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I feel like a lot of people may be crying screw job, while others rejoice under a heavy shower.

PWATs will be in place, I just worry we don't realize the full potential.

Yup agreed.. How many times have we seen the Euro show massive widespread inches only to see 5 towns get that much while the rest of the area sees scattered showers . This one seems no different and it's even later in year with less forcing, lower dews near 70 and no cooling behind it 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup agreed.. How many times have we seen the Euro show massive widespread inches only to see 5 towns get that much while the rest of the area sees scattered showers . This one seems no different and it's even later in year with less forcing, lower dews near 70 and no cooling behind it 

How many?

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