Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[StormchaserChuck!]

-AO this Winter

lol I think we are lagging

[bdgwx]

We cannot eliminate the possibility that we've seen the winter max for 2021.

[cny rider]

4 hours ago, bdgwx said:

We cannot eliminate the possibility that we've seen the winter max for 2021.

Can you explain how that could happen in February?
Thanks.

 

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

Can you explain how that could happen in February?
Thanks.

 

We've seen a pretty substantial decline in the NSIDC sea ice extent the last few days.

The last time the winter max occurred in February was 2015. So there is recent precedent.

 

[etudiant]

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

We've seen a pretty substantial decline in the NSIDC sea ice extent the last few days.

The last time the winter max occurred in February was 2015. So there is recent precedent.

 

No expert, but the data at :  https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html  show some sort of glitch since Feb 19th. Is there a better source?

Separately, I do agree that the recent ice trends have been suggestive of an early peak, but we do need a better confirm.

[bdgwx]

44 minutes ago, etudiant said:

No expert, but the data at :  https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html  show some sort of glitch since Feb 19th. Is there a better source?

Separately, I do agree that the recent ice trends have been suggestive of an early peak, but we do need a better confirm.

I usually just go to NSIDC directly. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I did see that glitch on that site earlier today. I was assuming the glitch was isolated to that site. The data on the NSIDC site looks good.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bdgwx said:

We've seen a pretty substantial decline in the NSIDC sea ice extent the last few days.

The last time the winter max occurred in February was 2015. So there is recent precedent.

 

and that was a mighty cold February down here

[StormchaserChuck!]

I'm voting for a big melt. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

[etudiant]

11 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I usually just go to NSIDC directly. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I did see that glitch on that site earlier today. I was assuming the glitch was isolated to that site. The data on the NSIDC site looks good.

The data on that link also stop at Feb 19th and the scan map shows that one sector was unscanned, which was the cause of the sudden downturn.

Maybe a data processing issue with the satellite or the ground station?

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, etudiant said:

The data on that link also stop at Feb 19th and the scan map shows that one sector was unscanned, which was the cause of the sudden downturn.

Maybe a data processing issue with the satellite or the ground station?

Oh...you're right. Between both Chrome and Edge cutting off support for ftp and having to switch to WinSCP to download the data I didn't even notice that it hadn't updated.

[etudiant]

On 2/22/2021 at 9:29 AM, bdgwx said:

We cannot eliminate the possibility that we've seen the winter max for 2021.

The updated NSIDC trend lines support your supposition. Also the Arctic is considerably warmer than usual this year.. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

[bdgwx]

Here is the NSIDC's update regarding the sea ice data problems.

Quote

NSIDC continues to investigate errors in our sea ice processing, and we are upgrading software to address the errors. Daily Sea Ice Index/Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis values after February 19 are erroneous. We will post new data as soon as the software upgrades are implemented.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2021/03/nsidc-continues-to-investigate-sea-ice-processing-errors/

[bdgwx]

JAXA data showed a pretty significant surge the last few days which puts Mar 2nd above the mid Feb peak. The winter max will almost certainly occur in Mar per NSIDC as well.

[StormchaserChuck!]

[so_whats_happening]

Is there a specific reason you are showing these?

[StormchaserChuck!]

my theory is that we are few years behind in arctic ice melt. 

[etudiant]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

my theory is that we are few years behind in arctic ice melt. 

So what is your implication, that we will see rising arctic ice levels from here on out?

 

[bluewave]

The lack of multi-year ice has finally allowed the 1st transit of the Northern Sea Route in February.

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

^Good post. The La Nina in 2007-09 is a bit of an anomaly. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

On 3/4/2021 at 7:43 PM, etudiant said:

So what is your implication, that we will see rising arctic ice levels from here on out?

 

I think we will see great effects in 5-10 years. 

[bdgwx]

We've seen 3 local peaks. One on Feb 15th, one on Mar 6, and the most recent on Mar 12 with a 5D average of 14.75 per NSIDC extent. We cannot eliminate the possibility of a higher max (the 2012 max occurred on Mar 20), but with each passing day the probability decreases. It looks to me like the melt season is going to start lower than it did last year.

[bdgwx]

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2021/03/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-uneventful-maximum/

"On March 21, 2021, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.77 million square kilometers (5.70 million square miles), tying for the seventh lowest extent in the satellite record with 2007. This year’s maximum extent is 870,000 square kilometers (336,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles) and 360,000 square kilometers (139,000 square miles) above the lowest maximum of 14.41 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles) set on March 7, 2017. Prior to 2019, the four lowest maximum extents occurred from 2015 to 2018."

[so_whats_happening]

So this is interesting. Fram Strait export picking up with such an anomalous high pressure system with a countering LP just east. Yes 1089mb high forecasted over Greenland in a little over 3 days. We have had such large high pressure systems this year, earlier around Mongolia if I remember correctly back in December I dont believe broke the record there but was awfully close.

Impressive stuff this year. I worry about the ice on the Atlantic front to near the north pole especially this year with how low thickness values are to the norm.

 

Edit it actually beat the world record

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/world-record-high-air-pressure-mongolia-b1780381.html

[bdgwx]

There is no holding back by the GFS. The 12Z cycle is now showing a 1096mb high against a 971mb low.

[so_whats_happening]

Thats pretty crazy to me. I dont think I have seen pressures higher than maybe mid 1060's mb around Greenland so if even the 1070-1080mb range verifies this may very well be a record, unfortunately my search has come up empty on the highest pressure reading from a station on Greenland's ice sheet unless others may know.

I just noticed the map I posted of ice thickness ended at the last day of February so here is hycoms depiction of the last 30 days fairly similar to AMSR where the highest values are but there are some differences that stick out such along the CAA and siberian sea region so it will be interesting to see which is closest to reality. Still both show issues on the Atlantic front to the north pole so they both seem to agree at least on that front.

 

I guess the one positive, if you really wanna call it that, is the lack of multi year thick ice what is left of it isn't being exported into the Atlantic to melt off. Ill have to see if I can find a multi year ice gif to show where we have the remaining portions of it and what is rather new thin ice. 

[bdgwx]

I could see it making a run at the low 1060's. :But I'll be extremely surprised if it hits 1070mb. There is going to be a pretty steep pressure gradient either way. The Euro actually shows slightly higher sustained winds than does the GFS even though it is much weaker with the anti-cyclone. It certainly looks like Fram export will be in high gear shortly.

[so_whats_happening]

Little update I believe we measured the greenland high around 1065mb give or take a few mbs just south over the ocean had a slp of 1040s so seems reasonable with the potential of higher over the ice sheet. Always hard to know with a large portion of that region being 10-13k feet above sea level, so you know extrapolation. Still have quite the fram export event taking place as the low moves into the Central Arctic regions. Looks as though there may be a day or two of slowing down on export but man it looks like it picks right back up in mid to long range. Really hope this is not a sign of a major ice depletion situation.

With such strong export Ice is reaching Iceland, this happens from time to time but I dont recall it being the case this time of year. Again maybe the one nice thing is we aren't exporting some of the multi year ice that is left, what little there still is.

Very worrisome of what may come this summer.