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Hoosier

July 5-8 Severe/Heavy Rain Possibilities

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I'm a little more optimistic than I was earlier about the MCS making it to Chicago.  I mean, I would still expect it to be weakening but it should have some pretty good MUCAPE to work with.  Hopefully it at least lays down some decent rain.  As far as tomorrow around Chicago metro, the potential fail mode is pretty obvious...the morning stuff comes through, lays down a rain cooled/outflow boundary well south and the atmosphere doesn't recover for whatever reason.  I wouldn't call that scenario likely at this point but it will have to be watched. 

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Well that moisture is already popping showers here. Come out of my appointment to some moderate sprinkles and seeing a storm billowing with visible inflow.

Edit: That cell near Watkins heading for MSP is going to need a TW soon. Hooking and rotating.

And just like that, it's issued.

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The storm near Buffalo no longer tornado warned but still has several areas of broad rotation showing. The metro is in the crosshairs at this point. Supposedly Hennepin County( Minneapolis) is sounding the sirens due to the straight line winds.

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The storm near Buffalo no longer tornado warned but still has several areas of broad rotation showing. The metro is in the crosshairs at this point. Supposedly Hennepin County( Minneapolis) is sounding the sirens due to the straight line winds.

MPX radar detects a small section of 85 kt winds at 2000ft above ground, sort of in the middle of the rain area.

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MPX radar detects a small section of 85 kt winds at 2000ft above ground, sort of in the middle of the rain area.

I just saw that. In addition, 2800 lightning strikes from that complex in the last 15 minutes.

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Unfortunate nothing has popped near Omaha then. I'm heading west towards there anyways due to moving. Watching all the moisture fly by above me has been pretty awesome, I don't get to see it like this often.

That cell heading for MSP is getting concerning again as it gets closer to the metro.

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Some small trees down, power out, flooded out. This was a whopper. My rain gauge even overflowed.

 

Where are you located within the MSP area?  It appeared the worst raked the north side.

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Where are you located within the MSP area?  It appeared the worst raked the north side.

I'm 5 miles due north of St Paul. As the storm was approaching it looked like it was going to pull to the south. But the northern fringe actually intensified and became the worst part of the cell.

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Currently 100k people without power in the Twin Cities. No ETA on my power. Gonna be a long night. Rain continues. Reports of around 4-5" in the north metro.

50 year old oak tree got ripped down in my brother in laws yard and fell on his truck. Nearly flattened the Chevy Tahoe.

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northeastern IA looks to get trained overnight, perhaps northwest IL, too. shockingly, the NAM has the best handle on the MCS. HRRR continues to be hours too slow. that extreme instability is forecast to build east with time, thanks to the low level jet, and has been so far this evening - should be able to maintain convection into and through chicagoland after midnight.

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Currently 100k people without power in the Twin Cities. No ETA on my power. Gonna be a long night. Rain continues. Reports of around 4-5" in the north metro.

50 year old oak tree got ripped down in my brother in laws yard and fell on his truck. Nearly flattened the Chevy Tahoe.

We got lucky here in Champlin, MN.  No more than 1.5"

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