Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 12z ECMWF took a good 50-75 mile jump north. Still basically nothing north of I-80 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 12z ECMWF took a good 50-75 mile jump north. Still basically nothing north of I-80 though. what did the totals looks like?Sent from my iPhone 6s using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 12Z looks to be a south of I-70 drencher: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1467401621 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 12Z looks to be a south of I-70 drencher: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1467401621 WPC holding steady(no north shift) CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THERE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS KS (AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NE AND NORTHERN OK) EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF S/WV ENERGY EJECTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF CO INTERACTS WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND POOLING OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH PWS ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LIE NORTH OF THE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE MEAN. WPC MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN AND (THUS) MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE HIGH-RES CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY PROFILE AND CLOSER TO (NOT FAR NORTH OF) THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A ROBUST S-SW LLJ TONIGHT (50-55 KTS) INTO THIS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL FAVOR INCREASED SOUTHWARD (UPWIND) PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND....WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME TRAINING OF CELLS THROUGH THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ON SAT. A STRIPE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS...THOUGH AS PER THE HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4-5+ INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The new NAM looks a tad bit more north so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The new NAM looks a tad bit more north so far Actually it's a good deal north. More centered along the I-80 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Actually it's a good deal north. More centered along the I-80 corridor lol, dumps pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 18z 4 km NAM still not biting. Much farther south by comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 18z 4 km NAM still not biting. Much farther south by comparison. but north of 12z north trend continues(is this winter LOL) 18Z GFS seems to have two waves of precip 1st wave is A HAIR more north the second one more south closer to the 12z precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 but north of 12z north trend continues(is this winter LOL) 18Z GFS seems to have two waves of precip 1st wave is A HAIR more north the second one more south closer to the 12z precip I have been thinking the same thing as the models show significantly different tracks and flopping like a fish out of water. I've always thought models were more consistent with summer systems. A lot of moisture to work with, so there may be some forecast busts. Not good on a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 I have been thinking the same thing as the models show significantly different tracks and flopping like a fish out of water. I've always thought models were more consistent with summer systems. A lot of moisture to work with, so there may be some forecast busts. Not good on a holiday weekend. Yeah, it's gonna really put a damper (literally) on some people's holiday plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 00z NAM still at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 00z NAM still at it Still have the significant discrepancy with the 4 km run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Still have the significant discrepancy with the 4 km run. Yeah the 4km has the QC receiving <0.1" of rain, while the 12km dumps 5-6" lol. This time of year I would go with the southern solutions, as the deep convection will likely hug the instability gradient further to the south. 12km precip output doesn't look very realistic considering even it keeps the instability fairly far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 00z Euro a bit farther north. This run actually gets precip in here...almost .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 DVN and DSM add their southern counties to flash flood watch ILX adds western counties a large thunderstorm complex over south central kansas may already be holding the front up some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well, no surprise that the 12 km NAM went south on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Well, no surprise that the 12 km NAM went south on the 12z run. this is starting to look like an i-70 july 4th washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Looks like models have actually increased amounts since the 00z runs around here 3.5"-5" sounds like a safe bet.12z NAM: 3.6"12z GFS: 4.3"12z GEM: 4.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 My folks are camping at lake shelbyville, what is normally a party and fireworks over the lake, is turning into what she said people already packing up and going home. Apparently last time fireworks were rained out was 2009, first and only time in 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 2009 was nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 2009 was nasty 160702170527u.gif If 4th of July was tomorrow surface analysis probably wouldn't look much different this year. 2009 was a chilly summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 2009 was nasty 160702170527u.gif Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 A number of locations in the rain area are in the 61-63F range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 A number of locations in the rain area are in the 61-63F range right now.Glad that is missing here, sitting around 80 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 160702173449u.gif Ah yes, one of my favorite weather days of all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 2, 2016 Author Share Posted July 2, 2016 2009 was nasty 160702170527u.gif 0.81 of rain that day in Springfield, and 71/65 the H/L extremes that day. But 7/4/2009 pales in comparison to 7/4/1981 here in Springfield--exactly one calendar cycle to the day of the awful 4th of 2009. The wettest 4th of July on record: 3.00 inches of rain. However, the temps were almost a replica of 2009: 75/69 here on 7/4/81. http://www.weather.gov/media/ilx/Climate/July%204%20Weather%20History%20for%20Springfield.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 2, 2016 Share Posted July 2, 2016 160702173449u.gif Was in St Lucia that week where it was 80 and sunny, while it was 100+ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 3, 2016 Share Posted July 3, 2016 models have trended back south at the last minute and looking at trends seems to conform I-70 in MO i think is most at risk for flooding 1-3 inches from I-70 south to lake of the Ozarks fell during the day if the train sets up there could be bad since lots of hilly terrain and outdoor campers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.