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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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The last few days have been interesting, with many areas getting good amounts of decent rainfall from afternoon/evening storms. Yesterday was nice here at work where we had a couple different rounds of thunderstorms and moderate/heavy rain. Afternoon temperatures fell into the low/mid-70's, which is a Godsend in July for this area. Tyler (at least IMBY) has missed most of the more widespread heavy rain, but has had a few localized downpours here and there. We have a couple more days of rain chances before it heats back up and dries out next week.

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Right on cue, the monsoon is back in business (up to ~1.5" rain here in ABQ), with more coming in August looks like.

A1Q0hl6.gif

May be some tropical action for TX in the next week to ten days it looks like. Could impact Mexico too, early days yet.

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Is it just me or has this site really shifted to just being the Mid-Atl & NE sub forums? There are only a few posts each day in our sub and then Earl couldn't even muster up his own thread on the main page :lol:

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8 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Is it just me or has this site really shifted to just being the Mid-Atl & NE sub forums? There are only a few posts each day in our sub and then Earl couldn't even muster up his own thread on the main page :lol:

KXAS, NBC DFW is getting a mobile x band radar mounted on the back of a pickup truck... it is the same kind as the CASA radar at Addison. 

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10 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Is it just me or has this site really shifted to just being the Mid-Atl & NE sub forums? There are only a few posts each day in our sub and then Earl couldn't even muster up his own thread on the main page :lol:

It used to be the same way back on EasternWX many years ago. Not much to talk about in the summer. 

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Starting to see some winter forecast here and there and they seem to jive with my thinking from a while ago. Avg to below avg temps and avg precipitation. The problem is that weak Nina with warm PDO equals not many true analogs. However, weak nina's in general are cooler than normal for Texas with '11-12 being the only weak Nina that was a true torch.

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35 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Starting to see some winter forecast here and there and they seem to jive with my thinking from a while ago. Avg to below avg temps and avg precipitation. The problem is that weak Nina with warm PDO equals not many true analogs. However, weak nina's in general are cooler than normal for Texas with '11-12 being the only weak Nina that was a true torch.

I was playing around with some numbers today.  Doing some contour plotting of different indices.  What I have found is it's the PDO.  A positive PDO would override everything else except extreme circumstances such as last year's super Nino.  I'll play with it some more as soon as we get the QBO and ENSO state squared away.

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If you go to Weather Trends 360 and play with the maps, the Northern/Western Atlantic is much warmer, the eastern Atlantic is colder, the tropical Pacific and Eastern Pacific (although not he Gulf of Alaska) is also a lot colder. For some reason the Gulf of California the waters off Central Mexico are warmer. So I'm thinking the interior SW (NM/AZ) may actually have a colder (Pacific is colder) but still wet winter (since Gulf of California is still warm)

 

 

Ocean Change YOY.PNG

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16 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Starting to see some winter forecast here and there and they seem to jive with my thinking from a while ago. Avg to below avg temps and avg precipitation. The problem is that weak Nina with warm PDO equals not many true analogs. However, weak nina's in general are cooler than normal for Texas with '11-12 being the only weak Nina that was a true torch.

I saw where Paul Pastelok at Accuweather posted some preliminary winter ideas the other day. In his analog package he had 1983-84 and 1984-85 (which he weighted twice) along with some other years...though I can't remember them all. I think 1987-88 was in there and 1995-96. The 1983-84 and 1984-85 winters were cold winters for DFW. 1983-84 has the coldest December ever for us. 1987-88 was more an average winter...with one big ice storm in January similar to the one a couple winters ago with the 'cobblestone' ice. Seems like some of our worst ice storms occur during La Niña winters. 1995-96 was the last time DFW dipped to the single digits in modern times (February 1996). We are way, way overdue for that!

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1 hour ago, Quixotic1 said:

Who said summer was boring?

 

well, it was probably me.  But I snapped an image of a dust devil at the intersection near my home.

image.jpeg

Awesome pic!

Maybe some rain in the future?

 

CpSUwExUMAAdEpK.jpg

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45 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Awesome pic!

Maybe some rain in the future?

 

CpSUwExUMAAdEpK.jpg

Thank you sir!

 

i will say this:. If 83-84 is an analog, a mid August cold front is certainly a possibility!

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3 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

Towers going up.  Not hopeful tjo

image.png

Things were very impressive looking this evening while out on my run. Was thinking that outflow boundary that was rolling in might fire a local storm but no such luck. 

 

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Just now, bubba hotep said:

If the Euro EPS and Weeklies are to be believed, then this might be the end of our 100's for the year here in DFW. Also, things look to be more active as well with a pretty steady stream of rain chances. The Weeklies actually have some snow showing up in New Mexico by the end of the run. 

 

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AMO value for July is in: 0.445. Highest in any month since Sept 2012.

NOAA had the July PDO value at 0.18, way down from last July. PDO signature to me actually looks slightly negative of neutral right now, with a cold ring of waters surrounding a warm tongue.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

It's not great to have a -PDO, La Nina, and AMO+ for the SW, in fact it's probably our worst possible pattern, so I'm hoping the hurricane season ramps up quickly, cools the Atlantic with upwelling, and then the PDO only falls to neutral for (+/-0.5) for Nov-Apr and that we end up in a weak La Nina Modoki or a cold-Neutral.

It has been wet here in August, which is usually a good sign even in La Nina cold seasons. March precip is strongly tied to August & October precip regardless of ENSO state.

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9 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Things were very impressive looking this evening while out on my run. Was thinking that outflow boundary that was rolling in might fire a local storm but no such luck. 

 

Yeah that was a nice looking OFB.  Had the radar at UNT on and when I saw that thing rolling in I was wondering if I might need to activate the entire network.  Decent storms way up there.

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100 Degree Days so far:

Austin

Camp Mabry: 21 (Today was especially awesome with a high of 102 and 111 heat index)  

AUS-Bergstrom Int'l: 8 (In a more rural setting and had a good amount of rain in late July)

San Antonio

Stinson Airport: 25

San Antonio Int'l: 3

Houston

Hobby: 0

Intercontinental: 5

Dallas

DFW: 13

Love Field: 14

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question for gulf coast residents, especially the ones in Louisiana right now. what does it look like outside when you have rainfall rates of 6-7"/hr? latest rates in a couple of spots are in the 6-6.5"/hr if the radar estimates are close to true from Slidell radar. and I just can't imagine what the drop size would be for that high a rainfall rate. i know there's a theoretical equation that can figure that out, but reality would be the better to know than the equation at this point.

and radar-estimated totals of 40+", I just can't imagine that much out of one storm. some of the worst flooding i remember was when a decaying tropical storm dumped like 20-30" in central america back in the 2000's. hopefully the radar estimates are off, on the high side.

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2 hours ago, Jim Marusak said:

question for gulf coast residents, especially the ones in Louisiana right now. what does it look like outside when you have rainfall rates of 6-7"/hr? latest rates in a couple of spots are in the 6-6.5"/hr if the radar estimates are close to true from Slidell radar. and I just can't imagine what the drop size would be for that high a rainfall rate. i know there's a theoretical equation that can figure that out, but reality would be the better to know than the equation at this point.

and radar-estimated totals of 40+", I just can't imagine that much out of one storm. some of the worst flooding i remember was when a decaying tropical storm dumped like 20-30" in central america back in the 2000's. hopefully the radar estimates are off, on the high side.

Last Halloween in Austin we had rain rates like that, it was pretty much completely blinding. The streets went from dry to complete torrents in a few minutes. 

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Just east of Baton Rouge

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON...GREENWELL SPRINGS...DENHAM
SPRINGS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 843 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTING
  IMMEDIATE EVACUATIONS IN WATSON. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS
  ALREADY OCCURRING. WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO TAKING PLACE IN AMITE.
  SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN DENHAM
  SPRINGS.

  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING INCLUDE...
  DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PORT VINCENT...GREENWELL SPRING...
  SHENANDOAH.

As for Baton Rouge proper...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
  ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT SATURDAY

* AT 813 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
  BETWEEN 10 AND 26 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
  FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...GONZALES...
  DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW ROADS...JACKSON...
  ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...OAK HILLS PLACE...
  ST. GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY...
  WHITE CASTLE AND LIVINGSTON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

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