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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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Little chance of rain in south central and SE Texas until the 14th of July, and what little there is on the models is near the coast.

 

Brutal heat wave in the SE US settles in near mid month.

 

Monsoon season precip models -  the July 4th weekend looks like a good time to begin...maybe a little extra MoJO.

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I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least. 

 

Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active. 

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I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least.

Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active.

Welcome! Trade snow for severe weather.

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It seems so, as a strong CCKW/MJO pulse appears to be headed for the Atlantic past week 1

 

attachicon.giftwc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

(Credit: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html)

 

The models seem to be struggling some now that the CCKW appears to be separating from the MJO. The EPAC is obviously going to get a nice bump in activity out of this but hard to say for the other side. Conditions don't appear to be favorable for anything in the Gulf & Western Caribbean but it will be interesting to see if that changes as the CCKW moves across.  

 

Here in DFW, we seem to be slipping into the annual "summer sucks" pattern. Maybe a storm for some tomorrow afternoon or Monday?

 

I did get too see a couple of storms in DC this week:

 

CmE0PUDXEAAS-2_.jpg

 

CmFCP4NWEAA3N13.jpg

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Watch possibly coming for N. Texas 

 

CmeUVeYVMAAJsVs.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032224Z - 040100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR
TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SFC BOUNDARY RUNNING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM OK EXTENDS SWWD TO THE TX S PLAINS. A
SFC TROUGH TO THE E IS ANALYZED FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TO THE PERMIAN
BASIN OF SWRN TX. MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...COUPLED
WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS IN ITS VICINITY ENCOURAGED BY
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101F...MAY CONTINUE TO
FACILITATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THIS
DETRACTS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE RISK
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY IS ROBUST -- WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG THAT MAY ENCOURAGE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER MODEST...AROUND 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TO
EVOLVE. DCAPE AROUND 1000-1700 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCALIZED CONSOLIDATING COLD
POOLS...WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND GUSTS.
THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF LOCALIZED COLD-POOL
AMALGAMATION/UPSCALE GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR.

GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS...MLCINH GAINS WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR FOLLOWING DUSK. AS
SUCH...SOME SVR RISK MAY EXIST...AND PERHAPS INCREASE...DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS A MODEST NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER SPEED MAX BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. AS SUCH...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE SVR RISK AND PROSPECTS FOR WW
ISSUANCE. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

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I'm new to the San Antonio area. Recently transplanted from Detroit, MI. Gotta say I was unprepared for the heat and lack of interesting weather so far since I've been here. Didnt rain once since I arrived 6/5/16. Interesting to say the least. 

 

Anyway, I look forward to posting in here when it does become more active. 

Too bad you didn't move in the spring-San Antonio had some massive hail events this year. 

 

Get used to generally boring but very hot weather through September. We're just about to wrap up month 1 of constant 90+ highs in Austin. Now it's on to 95-100 every day, with humidity making for heat indices of 105+ every day. At this rate, in a few weeks we'll be at the 100+ daily highs phase. So far this summer looks like it will be hotter than last summer.

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Cme1mm_VMAAxIC6.jpg

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...NW TX...FAR SW MO...FAR NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...320...

VALID 040049Z - 040215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
319...320...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SVR WATCHES 319 AND 320.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT SOME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MORE OF
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL OK...WITH COLD POOLS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AMALGAMATING AS THEY MOVE SEWD. MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS WEAK /00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND 20 KT AT 700 MB/ SO
THE CHANCES OF A WELL-DEVELOPED...FAST-MOVING LINE ARE VERY
LOW...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WHERE THE LINE MERGES WITH PRECEDING STORMS AND/OR PRECIP LOADING
LEADS TO A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS ALONG THE SRN END
OF THE LINE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ANTICIPATED. FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE HERE
WILL BE LESS THAN AREAS N AND E...PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ
INCREASES...BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SOME
BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...WITH THE
RESULTING STORMS LASTING SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER NW TX MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNLIKELY WITH
TSTMS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FARTHER S /ACROSS NW TX/...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WOULD THEN LIKELY TRACK SEWD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT
...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 07/04/2016

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Record daily rainfall event at DFW this morning with more rain possible this afternoon. Could DFW end up with a months worth of rain in one day?

 

The rain has also kept things quite a bit cooler than forecasted. This morning's low was 71°F and afternoon highs are struggling to reach the 90s as of this writing and will more than likely be well below forecasted values. Heat index values both yesterday and today have been below 105°F. Seems a little ridiculous that the NWS is keeping the Heat Advisory going as we are not meeting criteria by a wide margin. Even if we briefly meet it tomorrow, it won't be for two consecutive days. The Heat Advisory should be cancelled. Given recent rainfall and ridge not building in strong this week triple digit temps seem unlikely at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days.

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Cmjh9w2UIAAi-dy.jpg

 

 

 

CmjdVFJVYAAxZBq.jpg

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042221Z - 050045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX AND VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
WELL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...THOUGH PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- EXCEPT IN THE 60S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS -- HAS FOSTERED VERY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY IMPLY AN ASSORTMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH A FRONTOLYTIC
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF THE RED RIVER...SERVING AS FOCI FOR
INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
MLCINH HAS MOSTLY ERODED. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
OCCUR WITH LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. LARGE DCAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY
CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF
LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
WERE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ATTENDANT
SVR RISK MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IF A
MORE ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WERE TO
BECOME EVIDENT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SVR WINDS...WW
PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THE PRESENT
TIME..
.THOUGH THE AREA FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO N-CNTRL TX W
OF THE DFW METROPLEX COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE-CLUSTER
DEVELOPMENT.

..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/04/2016

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If those randomly spastic moving cells can form a cold pool and start pushing east then we might get something with this setup

FWD.gif

You may be onto something. They seem to be getting their act together. Though they would pretty much have to head due east.

Last night's convection was a pretty rare event. Typically the only time we get nocturnal convection like that in July or August is with a warm core type system.

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