baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 "In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132." I could be wrong, but the GME has one of the lowest verification scores of all global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The chance of the Euro showing a less favorable solution at 0z has to be > 90%. And the chance of it "blinking" and really changing for the worse might be at or greater than 50%. Blizzard model runs at Day 5 are so tenuous. I won't be alarmed unless all guidance moves in the wrong direction for successive runs. Do i expect the Euro to show the mega bomb from this pm, No. What i meant is if it takes a low OTS like the GFS is doing. That would be a blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not entirly sure that 966 bomb is gonna exit stage right and cut ENE. If anything, it may head slightly W of due north and give many coastal areas a SECS. Wouldn't call it OTS. Flow at h5 doesn't look to support a coastal snowstorm on the UK, despite the deep offshore gale center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ` Could the mods please split off a seperate thread for discussing the 84 hour 18z Nam, Nogaps, JMA ,KMA, Hungarian, Brazilian, DGEX, Peruvian, Italian, Indian, Australian, Chinese, Mongolian, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Iraq models please. Thanks. The Iraqi? I heard it has a well-known hot and dry bias....it will predict high 95 with 1% RH on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 "In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132." I could be wrong, but the GME has one of the lowest verification scores of all global models. I was just doing that as a point of reference, not that I actually follow the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This was a good thread, what the hell happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This was a good thread, Proof? I should just blow it up. Come on guys. Everyone is anxious. There's nothing to look at until 8:30, so go spend time with your families and stop posting garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's going to be a long night till the Euro at 1 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This tread is turning into a train wreck, everyone just needs to slow down and take a deep breath, we are still roughly 4-4.5 days away from the start of this potential event, IMO the models are still going to need another 24-36hrs until they start coming in with a consensus regardless of what they are showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here's my preliminary snow forecast! Comment, and critique as much as you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This was a good thread, what the hell happened? 18z GFS..ah what are ya gonna do..if it's a miss it's a miss..you can control it..sometimes I feel I would do better taking a break from the boards...go back to the 60's and not know what's coming..I've tried it before..it lasted two weeks..i'm addicited!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Its a good sandstorm model. ` The Iraqi? I heard it has a well-known hot and dry bias....it will predict high 95 with 1% RH on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Proof? I should just blow it up. Come on guys. Everyone is anxious. There's nothing to look at until 8:30, so go spend time with your families and stop posting garbage. Thank you!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This tread is turning into a train wreck, everyone just needs to slow down and take a deep breath, we are still roughly 4-4.5 days away from the start of this potential event, IMO the models are still going to need another 24-36hrs until they start coming in with a consensus regardless of what they are showing now. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I was just doing that as a point of reference, not that I actually follow the model. Yeah I know, I found the reference funny. I definitely think a few folks may be picking at straws with some of the guidance being brought up. I say we just dust off the LFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here's my preliminary snow forecast! Comment, and critique as much as you want. I know you're joking, but I actually don't hate that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know you're joking, but I actually don't hate that forecast. Is it the first graphical forecast for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it a first forecast for this storm? I don't think you'd be shocked to see what I sent clients today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here's my preliminary snow forecast! Comment, and critique as much as you want. Your Heavy Show Snow has me Bullseyed. I hate being in the bullseye this early. Ahh what the heck, watch it go ahead and varify. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't think you'd be shocked to see what I sent clients today... Hmmmm....... did you also make a forecast? If so, is it in line with mine or slightly different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Bright and sunny on Sunday?? I don't think you'd be shocked to see what I sent clients today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The UKMET has been so bad on the last two storms I haven't even looked at one run of it, the GEM ensemble mean is the one thing I don't like right now, as well as the 18Z NAM at 500mb looking a bit more like the 12Z GFS from 72-84 hours. Everything is relative and past performance is no indication of future trends, but the last two events for the PHI CWA, the gem has been steadiest (and more accurate). I'd watch the 50-50 low as much as the Rockies Ridge dp/dt the gfs solutions (and why it has become the southeastern streamer) for the last three sounding runs, its not forecasting it to move out of the way as quickly as other models leaving the confluence zone over the eastern conus longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hmmmm....... did you also make a forecast? If so, is it in line with mine or slightly different? I've been out with a first guess since Sunday Like I said, I don't think you'd be very surprised if you saw my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah I know, I found the reference funny. I definitely think a few folks may be picking at straws with some of the guidance being brought up. I say we just dust off the LFM. With or without its qpf doubling problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've been out with a first guess since Sunday Like I said, I don't think you'd be very surprised if you saw my map. basically hes showing, a world ending, apocolopytic, bliz of 96 trumping, snow plow haulting, forsty burial, rudulph grounded, state of emergency, snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I've been out with a first guess since Sunday Like I said, I don't think you'd be very surprised if you saw my map. I thought it would have said nao >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mjo, that's all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah I know, I found the reference funny. I definitely think a few folks may be picking at straws with some of the guidance being brought up. I say we just dust off the LFM. what is the lfm? the swiss farm model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I thought it would have said nao >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mjo, that's all you need to know. Hahaha. You're giving away January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Mt. Holly says NO to the GFS. THE 12Z GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER SFC LOW, VIRTUALLY NO WELL DEFINED VORT AND AS A RESULT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 PATN AND KEEPS A MUCH WKR SFC LOW WELL TO OUR S AND E. THE 12Z GFS SOLN IS AS CLOSE TO A NON-EVENT AS THE MDLS ARE SHOWING ATTM. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AND IS BEING DISCOUNTED ATTM. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what is the lfm? the swiss farm model? If you were joking, it went over my head with the next response: It was one of the first baroclinic models run by ncep in the 1970s and 1980s. Its output ended at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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