blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 There's been a trend to a slightly faster, weaker storm. NAM is the most illustrative of it (and probably too much so) but I also noticed it in both the 0z EURO and 6z GFS. Hopefully the 12z suite locks onto this storm given it'll be fully sampled. Looks like we have a better shot at getting in on the FGEN band(which may overperform) but the main band has the bullseye just to our SE. Think we sit in a very good spot... the main wildcard may be getting a handle on ratios. 6z RGEM has 0.9"-1.0" of QPF at yyz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Better image the fgen band is going to end up over MKE, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 If all works out I can miss a 10 inch storm just miles to my north and miles to my southeast in a 7 day span. Top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like we have a better shot at getting in on the FGEN band(which may overperform) but the main band has the bullseye just to our SE. Think we sit in a very good spot... the main wildcard may be getting a handle on ratios. 6z RGEM has 0.9"-1.0" of QPF at yyz. Seems pretty incredible at this point that 1.0" of QPF is the floor at this point with GGEM/Euro/GFS... NAM out on its own but it has been a lost soul this winter (well, most winters). Will be interesting to see what solution the models lock in on after full sampling with the 12Z run today... after that, it really is game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 If all works out I can miss a 10 inch storm just miles to my north and miles to my southeast in a 7 day span. Top notch. November storm was DAB IMBY 11" at ORD just a few miles away, plus the NW Indiana blizzard talk about a micro screw hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seems pretty incredible at this point that 1.0" of QPF is the floor at this point with GGEM/Euro/GFS... NAM out on its own but it has been a lost soul this winter (well, most winters). Will be interesting to see what solution the models lock in on after full sampling with the 12Z run today... after that, it really is game time. I think the floor, QPF wise, is a bit lower. Here are the QPF numbers for the city. Assuming the NAM is incorrect, 8-12" is likely if models remain consistent.GFS: 0.9" Euro: 0.8" Rgem: 0.9-1.0" UKIE: 0.9" Gem: 1.3" Nam: 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 band is going to rip over S. WI tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 All I have to say about this is: 70s next week possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 06z GFS was a noticeable improvement. Frontogenesis now sets up between I-96 and I-94, and we end up with 6-9" of snow. Still a ways to go before being GGEM or better good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 another drop in the mean at ORD with an increasing number of rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 9z SREF mean for YYZ = 7.0" of snow on 0.70" liquid. Surprised it's yielding a 10:1 ratio given that all the other models are more generous. The complete whiff members are gone but there's still a number in the 0.20-0.40" range for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over/under's DTW 3.6" ORD 3.2" YYZ 6.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over/under's DTW 3.6" ORD 3.2" YYZ 6.8" Over for all 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over for all 3. Ditto. Least confident in the ORD call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over/under's DTW 3.6" ORD 3.2" YYZ 6.8" I'm guessing all three spots might squeak out 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z NAM coming in with a slightly stronger sfc low in the Plains at 12 hours. Baroclinic zone is a touch north as well. edit: by 15 those changes have largely disappeared. Looks pretty similar to the 6z run thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over/under's DTW 3.6" ORD 3.2" YYZ 6.8" over under over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Over/under's DTW 3.6" ORD 3.2" YYZ 6.8" My call. Over Under Under Heavy stuff stays just north of ORD and with YYZ track record this winter how can u not take the under. DTW will be around 4.5-5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 My call. Over Under Under Heavy stuff stays just nort of ORD and with YYZ track record this winter how can u not take the under. DTW will be around 4.5-5.0" Smart thinking. I'd change my call but this is probably the last legit threat of the winter. Might as well stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Through 24, NAM is deeper, slower, and in spots it looks a bit colder. Eg, ORD looks better this run than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM deeper and slower through 36 but cold sector QPF is still lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 3 to 5" incher. Maybe someone squeezes out 6" in semi, probably the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM snowfall. It looks a tad southward of 06z? Or am I seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4km NAM, deeper, slower, further W with sfc low. 994 over CMH at 39 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the coldest rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM snowfall. It looks a tad southward of 06z? Or am I seeing things. As it was coming out, I thought it looked a bit south of the 6z in its placement of the f-gen band in your area and just to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the coldest rain That's a really tough call for my place, but it looks like I might scrape by. Good thing is that it's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The tier of counties on the south end on the nam snowband could go either way that cutoff is so sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 IWX is going ice mode from the looks of the latest point forecast. 0.1-0.3 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That's a really tough call for my place, but it looks like I might scrape by full disclosure - 2M temps look much colder than that map would suggest EDIT: actually not a bad ice/pl setup for lakeside standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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