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Feb 8th-9th Obs/Discussion Thread

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In considering this event, it has reminiscences to Feb. 25, 2007 and Jan. 26, 2011 (Commutageddon).  Not perfect analogues of course, I'm not trying to make that direct of a comparison.

 

The Feb. 2007 event was around or slightly above freezing, we were supposed to get some sleet and ice, but ended up with a several hour period of heavy, wet snow.  About 5-6", in fact.  There was some drizzle when it lightened up at the end, but by then we scored much bigger than expected.  There were advisories out, but LWX was playing catch-up as the snow kept falling, finally issuing a warning as the snow got heavy.

 

The Jan. 2011 event, of course, was another paste job of heavy, wet snow in a short span of time...and again was just above freezing throughout.  When the snow ended later in the evening, you could almost literally see it begin to melt before it finally cooled off and turned everything into a block of ice for the next couple of days.  Very destructive on trees, and of course a traffic nightmare.

 

This upcoming storm isn't the same kind of explosive dynamic situation as Jan. 2011 (or not quite as much), so maybe it's a bit closer to Feb. 2007.  In any event, I wonder if we'll see a similar result.

 

On further thought, maybe it's also like the back-to-back March 25 snows in 2013 and 2014, where we got ~2-4 inches here close into town, and that depended on rates (plus time of day, being late March).

Any way of finding out what the road temps were for the Feb 2007 event?

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New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-090300-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA
627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

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I'm in Fawn Grove, PA (three miles over the MD/PA border, right above Harford County), and we've had flurries here for the past ten minutes.

you're in an excellent spot. My folks are down the road from you in Stewartstown.

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Any way of finding out what the road temps were for the Feb 2007 event?

 

I honestly don't remember, but it was kind of cold the day or so before that event if I recall correctly.  I was driving back later that morning from Philly (where my parents live), and ran into the heavy snow along the BW Parkway.  By then it was sticking to the roads and coming down to beat the band.  Pretty treacherous.

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New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-090300-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA

627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING

NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF

3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

 

Thats funny. Point and click still shows 2" for almost all of the aforementioned areas,

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New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in

 

 

Nightime accum. of 1-2 inches tonight plus 2-4 tomorrow...seems a little early to be this bullish

Edit: Did a random click on Chevy Chase, DC.  And again on Fairfax City.

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Love Sterling, but that seems a bit aggressive on the zones east of the fall line.

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you're in an excellent spot. My folks are down the road from you in Stewartstown.

 

I teach in Harford County, so it's even better (though we'll be in school through mid-July at this rate).  I still say, "Bring it on." 

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New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-090300-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA

627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING

NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF

3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

 

I checked some of that out and yeah, they upped some amounts from what I can tell.  As you say, it's in the ZFP product, haven't noticed it in the point/click yet.

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Love Sterling, but that seems a bit aggressive on the zones east of the fall line.

 

Agree... at least this early... unless they took the NAM/4km NAM and ran with it ;)

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I am in Atlantic City and even if 8" on the travel back tomorrow there should be enough cars and road temps to keep it just slushy. Any other thoughts on the trip?

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Bank thermometer nearby here said 52, but I know that runs probably close to 10 degrees warm (no kidding!) a lot of the time.  Heck, their clock is fast too.  So I'd guesstimate mid 40s here or slightly lower right about now.

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