BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs has 2-5 inches. Rgem wasnt that bad either it's only going to get better amigo,i've been saying this since early. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The GFS still develops the small coastal storm, but a litlte later than the 0z run. Still, parts of the NYC area receive a few inches of snow on the GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The GFS still develops the small coastal storm, but a litlte later than the 0z run. Still, parts of the NYC area receive a few inches of snow on the GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com The GFS still develops the small coastal storm, but a litlte later than the 0z run. Still, parts of the NYC area receive a few inches of snow on the GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com it's already starting to throw moisture back,and my bet is on earlier and intense for a short bit.i'd say n.y.c is in a great spot right now and going by the satellite loop it might want to ride the coastline for the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 it's already starting to throw moisture back,and my bet is on earlier and intense for a short bit.i'd say n.y.c is in a great spot right now. and going by the satellites loop it might ride the coastline for the bm. Sometimes these systems blossom a little late. NYC/adjacent areas of NJ have a chance for the kind of accumulation shown on the GFS. It wouldn't be surprising if some portion of Long Island picked up 6" or more. I think we'll have a better idea this evening when we see if the system is beginning to develop as shown by the GFS or some of the more tame guidance. Having said this, I still think it's premature to write off the event as little more than snow showers or a few bursts of snow. Moreover, some of the earlier guidance showed some decent lift, so QPF figures may not tell the whole story. The soundings should be watched, as well. Thursday might also be some fun, as there will be the possibility of the kind of 30-minute or so snow squall that could drop a quick half-inch to an inch of snow in some areas as the Arctic front pushes across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Sometimes these systems blossom a little late. NYC/adjacent areas of NJ have a chance for the kind of accumulation shown on the GFS. It wouldn't be surprising if some portion of Long Island picked up 6" or more. I think we'll have a better idea this evening when we see if the system is beginning to develop as shown by the GFS or some of the more tame guidance. Having said this, I still think it's premature to write off the event as little more than snow showers or a few bursts of snow. Moreover, some of the earlier guidance showed some decent lift, so QPF figures may not tell the whole story. The soundings should be watched, as well. i agree with you 100%,i've been on the more aggressive side of guidance.these patterns usually givith and takith away and it usually balances out for everyone.earlier some people were ready to throw in the towel soo early in the game.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is exactly why you don't swing back and forth on every model run when you are a prof met. The NWS mets saw what they liked after pouring over all data and then applying the science they went to school for at least 4 years on to it. We will see what happens but I like our chances at 2-3" in and around immediate NYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is exactly why you don't swing back and forth on every model run when you are a prof met. The NWS mets saw what they liked after pouring over all data and then applying the science they went to school for at least 4 years on to it. We will see what happens but I like our chances at 2-3" in and around immediate NYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk you are correct sir,which is why i don't thread the needles with any model output.i am going back to school for meteorology and atmospheric studies b.t.w,future s.u.n.y oneonta attendee here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 you are correct sir,which is why i don't thread the needles with any model output.i am going back to school for meteorology and atmospheric studies b.t.w,future s.u.n.y oneonta attendee here. Congrats!! That's awesome man. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 i agree with you 100%,i've been on the more aggressive side of guidance.these patterns usually givith and takith away and it usually balances out for everyone.earlier some people were ready to throw in the towel soo early in the game.lol These are very challenging situations to forecast. Busts can occur either way, so avoiding the run-to-run model roller coaster can be useful until one gets much closer to the event. So far, there is a slowly expanding area of precipitation across parts of MD, southern PA, DE The air is a little dry across parts of the NYC area, but should gradually moisten up later. Some snow cover would be helpful when it comes to this weekend's Arctic blast, at least if the City is to challenge its record low reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Sometimes these systems blossom a little late. NYC/adjacent areas of NJ have a chance for the kind of accumulation shown on the GFS. It wouldn't be surprising if some portion of Long Island picked up 6" or more. I think we'll have a better idea this evening when we see if the system is beginning to develop as shown by the GFS or some of the more tame guidance. Having said this, I still think it's premature to write off the event as little more than snow showers or a few bursts of snow. Moreover, some of the earlier guidance showed some decent lift, so QPF figures may not tell the whole story. The soundings should be watched, as well. Thursday might also be some fun, as there will be the possibility of the kind of 30-minute or so snow squall that could drop a quick half-inch to an inch of snow in some areas as the Arctic front pushes across the region. Don " IF " that`s right it`s 6 to 10 on LI ( W to E ) . .50 . 75 there . .5 in CNJ would be 6 if its right . Tons of lift here Ratio`s go 12 to 1 min / convection poss Want to see UKIE before I bite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 you are correct sir,which is why i don't thread the needles with any model output.i am going back to school for meteorology and atmospheric studies b.t.w,future s.u.n.y oneonta attendee here. Good luck with the studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Congrats!! That's awesome man. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Congrats!! That's awesome man. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk thanks man i'm going to need it,haven't been back to school in quite a few years man.it was time to invest my energy and future in some i enjoy though lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Don " IF " that`s right it`s 6 to 10 on LI ( W to E ) . .50 . 75 there . .5 in CNJ would be 6 if its right . Tons of lift here Ratio`s go 12 to 1 min / convection poss Want to see UKIE before I bite . I agree with this thinking. If things work out, parts of the area could experience a pretty decent snowstorm in a winter with a number of meteorological highlights (historically warm December, January blizzard, NYC's reaching 30" or more seasonal snowfall for the first time on record after having had no measurable snow through December, very likely single-digit cold Sunday morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is exactly why you don't swing back and forth on every model run when you are a prof met. The NWS mets saw what they liked after pouring over all data and then applying the science they went to school for at least 4 years on to it. We will see what happens but I like our chances at 2-3" in and around immediate NYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk True but yesterday I got an advisory for 2-3" and didnt see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Id be shocked to get 6 inches imby in central Jersey. ..2-3 is best bet if it performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 CmC develops the same costal and hits central nj and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 CmC develops the same costal and hits central nj and NYC 0z Ukmet looked exactly like that too. Hopefully the 12z run holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z Ukmet looked exactly like that too. Hopefully the 12z run holds. gd to see you start coming around bro,earlier you was waving the white flag pretty much lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z Ukmet looked exactly like that too. Hopefully the 12z run holds. Nice little trend we have going here right now after the 06z blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 CmC develops the same costal and hits central nj and NYC Shows about 2-5in for the area. Interesting globals vs meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Id be shocked to get 6 inches imby in central Jersey. ..2-3 is best bet if it performs If the GFI verifies and .5 falls you will get 6 .The issue will be , does .5 fall ? Not sure we know yet . The globals are deeper than the hi res . If the hi res are correct you will not get 2 to 3 Even the Canadian gives you 4 Follow the UKMET IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 UKMET has been hot lately as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I thought the nam was king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I thought the nam was kingLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 From a risk management perspective, I get why the NWS takes the more aggressive approach in an event like this one. I'm guessing that putting out general 1-2" forecasts for the region, noting that impossible-to-pinpoint areas will likely receive 3-5", would likely be more accurate globally. This is essentially their model in impossible-to-pinpoint summertime t-storms, where they say something like, "0.1-0.2" of rain is likely, but up to 0.5" is possible in localized t-storms." Thing is, nobody cares in summer if they get 0.1" vs. 0.5", for the most part, whereas in winter, people scream bloody hell, lol. Problem with that approach is anyone who gets the heavier snow will not be "ready" for it, especially if advisories weren't issued, whereas with the approach they've taken, everyone is on alert and if they get 1.5" instead of 3-4" it's not that big of a deal. From a risk perspective, you'd generally rather overwarn so people are aware/ready and have the risk not quite be realized, than to underwarn and have a whole bunch of people surprised (which is when we get things like giant traffic snarls, usually, like the 1" in DC before the blizzard that led to gridlock, as nobody knew it was coming). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Having Just looked at the 4K nam, it likes the precip being far more expansive tha.ln what other models are showing Puts down between .2-.4" area wide with good ratios that's 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like 3 on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 True but yesterday I got an advisory for 2-3" and didnt see a flake You were in the, questionable region with no definite guarantee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ukmet looks decent. Not as good as last night but looks like a solid 2-4in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 True but yesterday I got an advisory for 2-3" and didnt see a flake I got 2.6" last night and didn't even have a hazardous weather outlook lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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