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Ian

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting #2

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New thoughts - here's the latest MD from SPC for our area:

 

Mesoscale Discussion 58 < Previous MD mcd0058.gif
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0320 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/MD/DE/WV/DC METRO TO NJ/PA/NY/CT   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230920Z - 231415Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAN   BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM NORTHERN VA/DE AND DC METRO/WV   EASTERN PANHANDLE/INTERIOR MD TO NJ AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PA TO FAR   SOUTHERN NY INCLUDING THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST CT.   PEAK SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY TO REACH/LOCALLY EXCEED 2 IN/HR...WITH   BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR/JUST   WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/EVENING UPPER-AIR DATA DEPICT THE   SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A STRONG/COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET ALONG THE   COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES. 09Z/4AM EST OBSERVATIONS   FEATURE A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /988 MB/ OFF THE COAST OF   SOUTHEAST VA WITH A NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD-EXTENDING SUBTLE INVERTED   TROUGH THAT DELINEATES A NEAR-COASTAL CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG   PRESSURE FALLS OF AS MUCH AS 4-7 MB/2-HR.   SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES AND NEW YORK   CITY SAMPLED A SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR   HEAVY SNOW WITH ESSENTIALLY A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER AROUND   500-600 MB AND AN AGGREGATION-CONDUCIVE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL THERMAL   LAYER BETWEEN 700-850 MB. COLLOCATION OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY...WHICH IS LARGELY   RELATED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD-SURGING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER   IMAGERY...WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE WSW/ENE-ORIENTED INTENSE BANDS OF   HEAVY SNOW. EMBEDDED RATES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 2 IN/HR FOR A   MULTI-HOUR DURATION THROUGH MID-MORNING. ASIDE FROM A PERSISTENT   NUMBER OF 1+ IN/HR RATES OBSERVED AT BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AND   WASHINGTON NATIONAL OVERNIGHT...METAR SNINCR OBSERVATIONS AS OF 08Z   SUGGEST 2 IN/HR RATES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT WASHINGTON-DULLES AND   MIDDLETOWN/HARRISBURG PA...WITH NEW YORK CITY/JFK ALSO REPORTING A 2   IN/HR RATE AS OF 09Z.   FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ARE SAMPLING A   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING   EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...ACCENTUATED   BY 50+ KT WINDS AROUND 1 KM PER STERLING VA-KLWX...DOVER AIR FORCE   BASE-KDOX...AND PHILADELPHIA/MT HOLLY-KDIX WSR-88D VWP DATA. AS   SUCH...BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN INCREASINGLY BE   EXPECTED INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR AND   JUST WEST /WITHIN 50 MILES OR SO/ OF INTERSTATE 95.   ..GUYER.. 01/23/2016   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

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HRRR is not done snowing at this time east of 81(end of run) and the rate and spread of precip ESE on the back end 2-3+ QPF amounts for most. especially near the PA line and NVA

post-14209-0-09696900-1453541349_thumb.p

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NWS lowered totals.. no clue why.

 

Here on Capitol Hill I really haven't seen the rates that would support 24+. I had 11.5" (not on a board) at 4 am, and I doubt the rates will be there to get another foot here between now and when the storm ends.

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What's the snow like for those of you in the whiteouts? Still light and powdery or is it heavy and wet now that it's coming off the bay?

 

Fatter, wetter flakes in the last 10-15 minutes. We're being tickled by the dry slot here south of Annapolis. 

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Here on Capitol Hill I really haven't seen the rates that would support 24+. I had 11.5" (not on a board) at 4 am, and I doubt the rates will be there to get another foot here between now and when the storm ends.

I'd be a little surprised if I don't run at 30".

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back deck table has 15.5", 4:33AM. Kingstowne, VA. Like I said, my table might read a bit high since it's set slightly back in a row of townhouses. 

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