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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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HighStakes

HighStakes

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Yes. It seems that many in this day and age of instant satisfaction find it difficult to accept what they have/get and to be happy with it. Let the atmosphere tell the story. Of course, for those who are actually forecasting, they do NEED to pay attention to the small details, but here, this is going to be a pretty incredible storm regardless for the remainder who are simply watching and savoring (or...worrying).

After seeing some of these incredible QPF model runs we are all losing a grip on reality. If you told all of us a week ago we going to 1.5 QPF and 30-40 mile winds we would have flipped out. Like you said we are most lily in for an incredible storm.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

different people in different locations say different things....I am more frustrated with this whole conversation....if I get dryslotted so be it...Euro is basically a worst case scenario for me for Saturday morning, and I still get 18"

if its dry in DC saturday morning...all the social media/CWG sites will get blown up

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Ian

Ian

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look at 6hour precip panel on wxbell from 12z - 18z.Saturday...worst case scenario for us and we still kill it...we're going to be ok...

Yeah and I wouldn't necessarily take that type of gradient verbatim but it's certain possible. We've watched plenty a band rip west while we have light accum mixed with periods of mood flakes. I do think it is somewhat true the euro runs dry in short range too.
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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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if its dry in DC saturday morning...all the social media/CWG sites will get blown up

 

We are getting less snow than far western burbs...I have been saying this for days, while everyone sweated every model run.  I think Euro is worst case for DC during Saturday...Hopefully if we do get dryslotted it won't be for long...

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It is the age of entitlement. Everyone deserves only the best, and if they don't get it, their world is shattered. I am straddling the line on banter mode here, but really, I am a little shocked (I guess I shouldn't be) by all the folks who are ready to commit weenie suicide because they may get 18" of snow instead of 28". Wow. I guess being away from the forums so long (and being in Alaska where the mindset of most locals is a total 180) has warped my overall view, but dang. I agree with you, it is all perception, perspective, and a bit of psychology. But 18" is 18", it is no more or less than if you thought you were only going to get 12" or thought you were going to get 30". Reframe it, and most people would be ecstatic. 

 

yes, being in AK has definitely affected you, but thanks for the social commentary...the melt was mostly about the confusion over the euro being stuck and what was happening, not about the dry slot.  Take your social critique to banter please...we don't need it...

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Ian

Ian

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4k Nam shows the same thing....the GFS is hilarious

gfs precip output is a bit silly but the 500 low pass is actually fairly SE compared to a number of events around here. everything basically stacked at that point to and it's all throwing vertical velocities basically at the heart of the area. i'd not be shocked at all if the GFS evolution happens over the area minus some of the weird convective blobs at least in their specific triangle shaped occurrence. euro looks basically the same. i think we're mainly just looking at the somewhat random nature of QPF output.

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gfs precip output is a bit silly but the 500 low pass is actually fairly SE compared to a number of events around here. everything basically stacked at that point to and it's all throwing vertical velocities basically at the heart of the area. i'd not be shocked at all if the GFS evolution happens over the area minus some of the weird convective blobs at least in their specific triangle shaped occurrence. euro looks basically the same. i think we're mainly just looking at the somewhat random nature of QPF output.

 

I think Saturday is a real wildcard and I am excited to see how it unfolds...As far as through 12z Saturday morning the guidance is all pretty much set that we get smoked to some degree

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DTWXRISK

DTWXRISK

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Richmond is barely 2.0 on euro and its warm so no ratio

The fact that you have not been paying attention to Richmond on the European model for the Past few Run is not your fault because you are such a stupid little person ...but the last several runs on a European have consistently kept it all Snow

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