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neff

Central PA OMG SNOW thread -- Winter 2016

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Didn't the 18z runs have some fresh data inputted in from launch sites? I would imagine the 21z SREFs have that new data as well.

 

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE

TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING

THE U.S. EAST COAST.

IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER

STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS

ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS

HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF

THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***

CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z

SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING

FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.

EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH

BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

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This is from the 15z SREF, but it's been a trend getting stronger each run of it. You can see that besides the ones at the bottom showing 1" of snow for HAR the next lowest one is over 11" with the mean at 17" due to some crazy ones. The QPF output is the same. It's like all or nothing with more members jumping to the all each run. It's weird having no middle ground.

6740e4dc51ce2b8eda83bc5d7b481f50.jpg

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CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE

TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING

THE U.S. EAST COAST.

IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER

STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS

ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS

HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF

THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***

CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z

SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING

FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.

EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH

BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

Thought so, thanks!

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So at this point we have the NAM and SREFs crushing MDT (and LSV in general) with snow and the GFS is still good but the rest say meh for our area? Shiaaaaat...I'd hate to be a met on these calls lol

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Epwa said the nam is actually matching the current position the best.

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Epwa said the nam is actually matching the current position the best.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

Pro tip: do not listen to anyone with "authority" in their name.

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Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer?

Looking at them it doesn't appear to change much from say the GFS track, but greatly expand the precip shield north/NW.

But really are they ever right when so far on their own currently, even with new data? That's a huge shift, could 3 hours of data really cause that?

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Looking at them it doesn't appear to change much from say the GFS track, but greatly expand the precip shield north/NW.

But really are they ever right when so far on their own currently, even with new data? That's a huge shift, could 3 hours of data really cause that?

 

 

Have the SREFs really ever beat out the global models in a situation like this? Or are they likely to just abruptly correct to the other models as we get closer?

 

The rule of thumb that I've learned, is to never use them outside of 36 hours and if you see the ARW cores skewing the mean, you toss. 

 

There were some times that they're relatively useful, but they are not good enough to hang your hat on. 

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THE 00Z NAM BEGAN AND IS RUNNING ON TIME WITH 13 ALASKAN...30
CANADIAN...70 CONUS...AND 1 MEXICAN RAOB REPORTS AVAILABLE FOR
INGEST. NO CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FOR THE NAM.

7 WINTER STORM RECON DROPSONDES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WERE
RECEIVED FOR THE 00Z NAM

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