January 22-23 Storm Threat

[GD0815]

NWS lowered totals in Blizzard Watch to 10-16. ugh

only 10-16, might as well be flurries!

[Violentweatherfan]

High res nam has a better handle of the confluence, dry air to the north cutting the percip shield.

I'm comparing the qpf vs snow amounts...check out the wicked cutoff up north...lol.

[MacChump]

NWS lowered totals in Blizzard Watch to 10 - 16. Ugh.

where?  here is the point and click for blue bell:

Friday Night

Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 23. Northeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Blustery, with a northeast wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 13 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[Birds~69]

Just now Glenn 10-14" and surrounding burbs.

[Bluescat1]

NWS TTN storm total 9" low end 19" high end.

[shemATC]

Mount Holly has also lowered their minimums and most likely ranges as well.

[GD0815]

Just now Glenn 10-14" and surrounding burbs.

seems like a reasonable forecast to me!  i might be tempted to go 12-16, but very little difference.  I wish Glenn still posted here.

[Kicking Up A Storm]

where?  here is the point and click for blue bell:

 

It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend....

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001

[Bluescat1]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[GD0815]

It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend....

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001

well, you have been reading the thread and following along with the models today, since you have been posting.  Given the discussion, it can't be a surprise to you that the forecast was slightly lowered. Try not to live and die by every update or model run the general trend for around a foot of snow for most of us has been there for days.

[hazwoper]

a feel big jump north in the GFS coming.....just a feeling

[MacChump]

It's in the actual Blizzard Watch text. I know it's only shifted down by 2 inches, but no one likes seeing that, and I hope it's not a trend....

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USPA0865:1:US?phenomena=BZ&significance=A&areaid=PAZ104&office=KPHI&etn=0001

hmmm...guess the nws site hasn't updated yet...in any event, you'll never ever ever notice the difference between 16 inches and 18 inches of snow when you're getting blizzard winds for 6 hours...

[hazwoper]

hmmm...guess the nws site hasn't updated yet...in any event, you'll never ever ever notice the difference between 16 inches and 18 inches of snow when you're getting blizzard winds for 6 hours...

 

This

 

cant believe we are up set sitting under a blizzard watch....

[anthonyweather]

The WPC tossed the 12z NAM. Wonder if they'll do the same for this run.

If that's the case our WSW should be getting dropped

[Bluescat1]

I think people want their whole seasonal total in 1 storm.

[TL97]

RGEM looks good for the Philly area 

[anthonyweather]

That 4k nam is just about the nail in the coffin for the LV I think , we will be on the outside looking in I'm afraid

[tcutter]

Maybe it will be like this...

[Bluescat1]

GFS is rolling.

[hazwoper]

At 15 GFS has a bit more ridge out ahead and the qpf shield is further north (can see it easily in KY)

[shemATC]

I think people want their whole seasonal total in 1 storm. 

Considering this might be the only shot at a storm it isn't all that an unreasonable request. 

[hazwoper]

at 27 precip shield still a bit further north.

[hazwoper]

42 mod (borderline heay) snow in PHL.  its coming north

[anthonyweather]

GFS gonna be better for northern fringe guys in the LV

[shemATC]

ugh, the rgem gets the slp right off the VA/NC coast, the it decides to go straight westward inland 50 miles.  Heavy snow doesn't make it above delaware border.  PHL won't make 10" on this run.

[GD0815]

GFS should be a solid hit for most of us, but still has the nasty cutoff.  Nothing like the NAM, obviously

[hazwoper]

GFS should be a solid hit for most of us, but still has the nasty cutoff.  Nothing like the NAM, obviously

let it play out.  it is coming north

[Kicking Up A Storm]

Maybe it will be like this...

 

 

Ha love it. I've been trying to convey that issue in this entire thread: These storms tend to give nice surprises in the nowcasting stage. NOT saying it's 1996 redux, but rather I there's some twists and turns in here yet.

[GD0815]

let it play out.  it is coming north

it is north of 12z i agree, my point was it is still nothing like the NAM.

[Ralph Wiggum]

RGEM is actually a decent SEPA hit...still snowing after 54 hours. 18z GFS big SE PA hit. The hits continue.

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