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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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*sigh* how about a rule that if you cant see the model or don't know how to read it, you wait on commenting? i know we don't have a mod, maybe we can self-moderate.

 

I think I pbp'd it pretty well, actually :popcorn:

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Any chance you back off some? I went off someone's post who doesnt know synoptic meteo and said it went due east. I admitted my error and moved on, there was no meltdown. Cool off man.

 

It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture.  Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interesting

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Any chance you back off some? I went off someone's post who doesnt know synoptic meteo and said it went due east. I admitted my error and moved on, there was no meltdown. Cool off

you really don't see the problem here? never mind, keep on, i look forward to the next canceling, i said my piece.

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Fwiw I am going 12-24" for my area (lower central bucks county). Meso banding and capture variability will be the difference between verifying low end vs high end of that range.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture.  Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interesting

that kind of thing can happen with a capture....in any event, i agree, not likely to verify, and we have seen the overly juiced up NAM many times before.

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It did tick east prior to 72 hours but then went whacky and stopped movement with a late capture. Not going to be correct outcome IMO, but interesting

My apologies didnt realize it was u that posted that bud. U know youre stuff, youre good. Honest oversight if u didnt see late panels.

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That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run.

I totally agree.   I live 8 miles north of ABE, and I despise the gradient being this close.   Would love to have some insurance room.  Maybe we can get a 25 to 50 mile jog north.

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My apologies didnt realize it was u that posted that bud. U know youre stuff, youre good. Honest oversight if u didnt see late panels.

 

No worries.  I think we all need to calm down and post as a group like old times.  The Philly forum used to be money in these situations, lets try and keep it that way.

 

Anyway, I like what the precip maps are showing as far as aerial extent, just not sure I like how they get there with this run.  GFS should be telling.....

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that kind of thing can happen with a capture....in any event, i agree, not likely to verify, and we have seen the overly juiced up NAM many times before.

NAM has some support from the gfs tho not as high with qpf. Probably a NAMing as some pointed out. We'll know in about 60 hrs :-)

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That cutoff worries me. I'm currently in East Stroudsburg and I'm 20 miles away from either an epic bust or an epic blizzard on this run.

wow - a forecast of 0.4 - 19 inches .... 48 hours of radar  hallucinations in your future :-(

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Those NAM totals are based on 10:1 too. I don't think 15:1 will happen due to temps and wind but 12:1 is certainly not out of the question if we sit under the CCB as depicted on the NAM. I don't think today's model runs could of been any better for the majority of the area. Hopefully we see a little bit more northern expansion in the precip so our friends in the northwest can get in on the fun as well. My first call is 16-24"+ for SE PA and Central/southern jersey, 8-12" for LHV with a sharp cutoff the more NW you go. And I think I may have to increase it as time moves forward. Everyone should be in a great mood here!

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