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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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My concerns with the NAM surface vs. 500mb depiction are that the general orientation of the trough containing the closed low is still a little positive and that 500mb low is still moving steadily eastward through 84 hrs.  I suppose it's slowing down a little, but does that really translate to a northward movement and a near-stall of the surface low?

 

I'd be really cautious about just how far northward that sharp snowfall cutoff makes it.  My gut says it's not going to get as far north as the NAM shows.

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What I gather in other forums is the run is colder which helps us.  It also seems like the surface low tracked a good deal further east and avoids total capture which means it exits quicker out to sea.  Confluence up north seemed a bit stronger too.

 

Definitely way different than the most recent NAM run which just stalls out east of us just offshore.

 

Not sure what we need to root for here.  Whatever happens though it seems very very clear that DC is ground zero.  Lucky them.

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Agree

 

Stil 2.5 days away from start.  Don't worry about precip maps at this point.  Just be happy with it not being squashed south of area.  Details will be worked out in the coming few runs.  This is a good sign.

Exactly. The confluence is weaker and the run has all the trappings of a good snow event. I agree with Wiggum that there's a weird handoff of the system and it just jumps east for no reason. Hopefully the Euro doesn't show that.

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Overall though even with all the snow printed out it doesn't sound like a great run.  Like somebody said maybe the convection offshore screwed things up.  But the whole run seemed way too progressive compared to prior runs.  Want to see a capture and stall.

sorry but a top 10 snowstorm of all time potentially is a pretty great run regardless.

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