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Jan 9-10th snow threat. Disco/OBS


dmc76

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been clicking around the meso-analysis page

 

on the plus side, looks like a nice period of 700-500 should establish itself right over the city later and we should see a couple hours of solid snow

 

on the down side, system will be transient and we won't see that pivot back west with the deformation band needed for good totals

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Models seem to have picked up on a bit more snow for most, quicker changeover. All models show a very sharp temp drop. Yet DTX lowers accums to around an inch for Detroit and says temps slowly falling

 

 

Michsnowfreak,it's DTX what do you expect...

 

GRR lowered totals for down near Lansing and Jackson and said they would be slower to change over as well.

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east, weak, lame

 

Hah...seems like there's been that one model that wants to take it east with each model set. First it was GFS, then the NAM for a while yesterday, and now the Euro. The GFS and NAM both came stronger and west again, so my guess is the Euro may be behind? The Canadian models are following along with the Americans. Wave the peace flag.

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Takes longer to get to 32.

I have to disagree. I'm not saying we will get more than 2" or anything, just that we have seen time and time again that warm temps ahead of a storm mean nothing.

Its all about timing the precip with the temp drop. Between 4am-9am the temp is progged to drop from the mid-40s to the mid-20s.

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I have to disagree. I'm not saying we will get more than 2" or anything, just that we have seen time and time again that warm temps ahead of a storm mean nothing.

Its all about timing the precip with the temp drop. Between 4am-9am the temp is progged to drop from the mid-40s to the mid-20s.

 

Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here.

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Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here.

 

If a second deformation axis develop and sits over the area for a few hours Sunday Morning (I.E. 00z GFS), then maybe not.

 

That's not a likely scenario though.

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Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here.

Yes but we won't even start precip til after midnight. The 6z nam and gfs would have over half the QPF fall as snow, the first run to show this. Again not saying anything about how much or little we get. Just that the temp right now means nothing.
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Yes but we won't even start precip til after midnight. The 6z nam and gfs would have over half the QPF fall as snow, the first run to show this. Again not saying anything about how much or little we get. Just that the temp right now means nothing.

Oh, ok. Yeah, convergence and deformation bands can definitely cool things off quickly. We are just not used to seeing rapid temperature drops here like they do out west. Still amazes me that Denver can go from 60 degrees to a foot of snow in less than a day, then back to 60 again the next.

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Oh, ok. Yeah, convergence and deformation bands can definitely cool things off quickly. We are just not used to seeing rapid temperature drops here like they do out west. Still amazes me that Denver can go from 60 degrees to a foot of snow in less than a day, then back to 60 again the next.

 

Elevation and Latitude/Longitude.

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