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Damage In Tolland

January 2016 Pattern Disco

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Steve, I don't know what you are arguing....the data was presented before you.

This is why people bust your chops.

The debate was over before it started.

lol ok,JC just posted more, go bust his chops.

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Yes you are correct that theoretically could be the case. However, in order for it to work then we'd have to get almost all of our snow events timed perfectly with a cold pattern. Unlikely in an above average snowfall winter that was also warm. Examples would be early December 1996, late December 2012, 2nd half of February 2013, February 2008, February 2005. All were mild patterns but gave above average snowfall to interior MA.

Seasonal descriptions work well because it takes a decent number of events to get average snowfall in interior MA. What I had yet to see amidst this objection of "precip matters more than temps in interior MA" is evidence that temperature matter more. I.E. show me a bunch of cold patterns with below average precip that still gave above average snows to interior MA. You won't find more of those than warm/wet patterns that gave above average snow.

 

I have a short memory and completely trust your knowledge of specific winters over mine. But the one I can recall, 2012-13, I thought wasn't really a warm pattern for February and March when most of the snowfall occurred, and most of the warmth was from large anomalies in Dec-Jan.

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I have a short memory and completely trust your knowledge of specific winters over mine. But the one I can recall, 2012-13, I thought wasn't really a warm pattern for February and March when most of the snowfall occurred, and most of the warmth was from large anomalies in Dec-Jan.

 

 

Late December 2012 for ORH:

 

Date.....Temp +/-....Snowfall

12/25......+3..............0.6

12/26.......0...............3.7

12/27......+4..............3.0

12/28......+1..............0.0

12/29.......0...............9.3

 

 

You can see the pattern wasn't a cold one...it was mild overall, though when the actual precip fell, we were close to neutral because that is what happens.

 

Lets move onto Feb 2013...early Feb during the blizzard was cold, but later on it was not.

 

 

Date.....Temp +/-....Snowfall

2/22.......+1..............0.0

2/23.......+2..............2.0

2/24.......+2..............6.1

2/25.......+2..............T

2/26.......+6..............0.0

2/27.......+5..............2.4

 

There's 27.1" of snow that winter which occurred during periods where there were zero days below normal for temps. I mean, we can move onto March too....3/8/13 had 14.9" at ORH on a +1 day.

 

 

This is getting very specific and I don't like to do it because it becomes much too anecdotel, but I presented this only because you brought up 2013 as an example. IIRC, the covariance of temps and precip is pretty high...but when I ran them both against snowfall, precip was more important...there was a residual of like 0.2-0.3 or something. I don't have the excel spreadsheet in front of me right now at work, but I'll see if I can get it when I am home.

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JC, you can simply look at temps for ORH in winter (avg temps meaning the mean). Look at +2-3 and see how cold that still is. 

 

Well ORH is a bit on the cold & snowy side of the spectrum though, BOS is north of 84 and I remember in late December 2012 SST were too warm and it was all rain there.

 

Temps in Feb-Mar 2013 were a few tenths of either side of normal JC.

 

Thanks, that's kind of what I thought. I wouldn't call that an AN pattern though. Maybe we are not considering the same thing as marginal temps, I would call +2-+3 as marginal, but not normal temps as marginal.

 

Anyway, thanks all for responding. I appreciate the ability to learn here.

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Well ORH is a bit on the cold & snowy side of the spectrum though, BOS is north of 84 and I remember in late December 2012 SST were too warm and it was all rain there.

 

 

Thanks, that's kind of what I thought. I wouldn't call that an AN pattern though. Maybe we are not considering the same thing as marginal temps, I would call +2-+3 as marginal, but not normal temps as marginal.

 

Anyway, thanks all for responding. I appreciate the ability to learn here.

 

I was just pointing out how it was pretty warm, but also snowy. Will took it a step further to show you the daily breakdown. 

 

For me personally, the cold is definitely a security blanket on the coast. However, if you told me my DJFM period would be drier than normal, I would be a bit nervous.  

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signs being the Euro op? , man I like this Ens look coming out for the 1/23 ish period

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signs being the Euro op? , man I like this Ens look coming out for the 1/23 ish period

He posted ensemble mean.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with some type of storm threat..snow or rain..It's after that when we use up the cold that's in question

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He posted ensemble mean.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with some type of storm threat..snow or rain..It's after that when we use up the cold that's in question

Yea 32-38ish is now el torcho, thats what Euro Ens and GEFS have have, just saying. And we get accused of hyping cold, lol 

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There definitely looks to be a lot of disagreement in the ensembles on where we are at the end of the month. This is going to be tough on guidance.

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There definitely looks to be a lot of disagreement in the ensembles on where we are at the end of the month. This is going to be tough on guidance.

Phil, Leonard, HM and Ryan all going torch, guess we will see. Looks on Euro Ens an AN normal period but for us not terrible. Ryan is on the winter is over thought train, he has posted as such many times. We shall see.

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Phil, Leonard, HM and Ryan all going torch, guess we will see. Looks on Euro Ens an AN normal period but for us not terrible. Ryan is on the winter is over thought train, he has posted as such many times. We shall see.

 

Not saying winter is over but there's absolutely nothing right now to get excited about. Better hope we can get a storm threat with the NAO on our side in the next 10 days. 

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How did we go from normal temps this morning for end of Jan/early Feb..to winter ending and torch this afternoon? Was there that big of flip on the ensembles?

 

The weenies thought that but most I know were predicting a warm up toward the end of the month into early February. 

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The weenies thought that but most I know were predicting a warm up toward the end of the month into early February. 

Well Scooter and Will on here just this morning said maybe normal to slightly AN but stormy. No-one said anything about torching and ending winter.

 

 

  1. Pattern change imminent last week Jan. Pacific is the same but reversal in NAO means end of arctic cold, for now.

    CYtWT_uUoAAPzqe.png
     
    CYtWT-WUQAE0_Ut.png
     
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    @DanLeonard_wx The NAO was so kind to us in the snow department too.

     
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    @ryanhanrahan Yep the pattern was favorable, just got unlucky. Going to be a lot harder to get a big one beyond next weekend.

     
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    @DanLeonard_wx Yup - just didn't work out this time. Always next winter.

     
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    @ryanhanrahan @DanLeonard_wx first Twitter winter cancel post of the year

     
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    @steveginx @DanLeonard_wx You're still all snowmen and powder days when long range pattern looks like garbage. Reality hurts :(

     
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    @ryanhanrahan @DanLeonard_wx lol so you cancel the rest of winter alrighty then

     
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Not saying winter is over but there's absolutely nothing right now to get excited about. Better hope we can get a storm threat with the NAO on our side in the next 10 days. 

the Euro and GEFs ens at day 8 are nothing to look at. I mean get excited is for day 3 , that is a good look this far out. I know you are all Debbie and all and for good reasons but cmon now.

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the Euro and GEFs ens at day 8 are nothing to look at. I mean get excited is for day 3 , that is a good look this far out. I know you are all Debbie and all and for good reasons but cmon now.

 

Can't wait for my 0.5"

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Actually I'm wondering if Alex has any influence on this pattern reversal. Looks to be heading toward the eastern arctic in the long range.

Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge?

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Haven't a lot of the strat guys told us that at the time of an SSW, the AO goes strongly but temporarily positive?  And aren't there signs of an SSW at the end of January?

 

I know the thinking is that an SSW doesn't wreck the polar vortex for about 30 days...but aren't some sensible weather effects felt before that?  Maybe Isotherm can chime in here.

 

Anyway, it seems the rumors of winter's demise might be greatly exagerated this time around.

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Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge?

dunno. I don't think this situation has ever occurred before. Maybe its the reason for the abrupt change. The unexpected turd entering the punch bowl.

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Reverse of recurving Pac typhoon which promotes troughing in East. Recurving Atlantic Cane in mid winter helps pump the ridge?

wut?anyways in good news dept Euro ens mean is 4-8 across Ct not Ryans .5 for the next threat , lets hope that holds or even builds. One storm at a time this year, volatility was the call. More good news new GFS para is pretty stout with the ULL snows , at least a couple of inches, man heckuva a classic text book PWM INVT too, That sig has been there for a long way out (Debbies will doubt but its been there in some shape or form)

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