packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This is a start...courtesy of Mike V. on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Do my eyes deceive me. NAO looks to go negative on the 27th on the Euro. AO still positive, but not raging (+1). PNA has a lot of work to do. Still minus 3. EPO is neutral. Anyone that watches JB's video this AM, he shows the Euro (Changes the colors) long term and it looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Unmitigated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 on the PNA, is that Bo and Luke Duke's cousins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Unmitigated.... ao.sprd2.jpg AO hit +4 in Nov and will in Dec. Let's see if we can make it 3 in a row in Jan. Good news is we only look to be +3 to +5C in Jan....and sadly that only drops out winter temp departure...woohoo. #ninosucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 on the PNA, is that Bo and Luke Duke's cousins. Yep. The PNA wins the Coy and Vance award: A valiant effort with a crappy result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 AO hit +4 in Nov and will in Dec. Let's see if we can make it 3 in a row in Jan. Good news is we only look to be +3 to +5C in Jan....and sadly that only drops out winter temp departure...woohoo. #ninosucks But we still have the Jamstec and the Canadian Sips and the Atari models that look great. Don't despair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Lol... who was 18z analog? Another reason to always toss the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Unmitigated.... ao.sprd2.jpg CR, It doesn't look great but it could definitely look worse in the LR. Basically everything ~ neutral. I'll take that for where we've been for the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looks like it may take a miracle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 CR, It doesn't look great but it could definitely look worse in the LR. Basically everything ~ neutral. I'll take that for where we've been for the last month. Yeah, in the LR, they looking to be heading in the right direction. However, they always look to head in the right direction at the end. Anyway, we should start to see some positive signs showing up more broadly in the next few days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, in the LR, they looking to be heading in the right direction. However, they always look to head in the right direction at the end. Anyway, we should start to see some positive signs showing up more broadly in the next few days ahead. I still feel we should see some kind of wintery pattern in the south in Feb, I think Jan is toast, but's just my opinion. Your even seeing a couple of the more optimistic people that have been quite steadfast on mid-Jan flip now say 'well the last two weeks of Jan is more of a transition period'... But come Feb we may look back and say the writing was on the wall, LOL..or should say melted on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I still feel we should see some kind of wintery pattern in the south in Feb, I think Jan is toast, but's just my opinion. Your even seeing a couple of the more optimistic people that have been quite steadfast on mid-Jan flip now say 'well the last two weeks of Jan is more of a transition period'... But come Feb we may look back and say the writing was on the wall, LOL..or should say melted on the wall. Sadly, you're probably right. On the other side of the coin though, weather still surprises us. So maybe in the next few days, we'll see the transition really begin to happen in the LR guidance. That would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Sadly, you're probably right. On the other side of the coin though, weather still surprises us. So maybe in the next few days, we'll see the transition really begin to happen in the LR guidance. That would be nice. Well you know how patient I am...but so far this is pretty much going as planned, we knew the PV was going to be a beast and we knew the +QBO favored a later AO flip. Grit has me nervous though, he seems to be hedging on a flip. Edit: Would love to see a pac low going in early Jan that's not over AK, anywhere in GOAK preferably the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Same ole same ole on ensembles...yeah it shows ridging into AK but trough buried in the west. NE pac low over GOAK/Aleutians nowhere to be found....zzzzz I am sure the MA to NE crew will like this as they can score with minor tweaks but for us it's wait till Feb...might be Feb 2018 though LOL. #superninorules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 How's the upslope looking tomorrow ? I need to see snow, easy access off of 40 or 26!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Currently central NC is roughly +9F above normal for Dec, I think we have a good chance at finishing +10F, this weekend will be below normal (-5 to -7F) or so but then the last 10 days of the months we will average solidly +10F with several +20F days, the one thing that can screw this up will be how much rain we get. Based on my calculations we need to finish off the last 10 days at +15F or higher, going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looks like it may take a miracle.... Wet with average temperatures doesn't seem like too bad of a combo to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro and GFS similar at D10 in regards to a strong low centered over the Arkansas region with snow on the W/NW side. Euro shows some ridging over the northern Greenland region also. Also looks like it is trying to displace the PV some as well. Nice steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The big low anomaly northwest of AK and the ridge south of the Aleutians need to flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Also looking at the Euro stratosphere plots there are good developments by D10. At the 50hpa level (and 30hpa level also) you can see the PV actually being split in half/squeezed in the middle, one portion moving towards Siberia and another south towards Hudson Bay. It doesn't quite go to the 10hpa level yet but it's a start, assuming it's correct. It's definitely weakening and ensembles indicate at least a displacement in the long range. Just fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 PNA is just killing us. AO and NAO look to go negative end of December now and the EPO is neutral. The PNA is just -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Same ole same ole on ensembles...yeah it shows ridging into AK but trough buried in the west. NE pac low over GOAK/Aleutians nowhere to be found....zzzzz I am sure the MA to NE crew will like this as they can score with minor tweaks but for us it's wait till Feb...might be Feb 2018 though LOL. #superninorules I'm not enthused yet. But it's a step in the right direction for the entire eastern half of the conus. Assuming the ens mean is where we are going and we don't quickly regress...I can envision a drawn out step down process where the storm track presses southward over time. The tricky part is even if something does in fact track underneath us, will there be enough cold air to work with? In a pattern like that, any cold shot will hit the upper midwest first and then have a bunch of time to modify as it comes south and east. Our best chances happen when cold invades the OHV first. Not always of course. Speaking in a perfect world kind of way. Verbatim, the NE can score in a general pattern like that. They could get their cold air straight from Quebec. Even AN in Jan will do the job for them. I'm not pessimistic at all though. It's a process. And ensembles are agreeing on the first step in that process during the first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm not enthused yet. But it's a step in the right direction for the entire eastern half of the conus. Assuming the ens mean is where we are going and we don't quickly regress...I can envision a drawn out step down process where the storm track presses southward over time. The tricky part is even if something does in fact track underneath us, will there be enough cold air to work with? In a pattern like that, any cold shot will hit the upper midwest first and then have a bunch of time to modify as it comes south and east. Our best chances happen when cold invades the OHV first. Not always of course. Speaking in a perfect world kind of way. Verbatim, the NE can score in a general pattern like that. They could get their cold air straight from Quebec. Even AN in Jan will do the job for them. I'm not pessimistic at all though. It's a process. And ensembles are agreeing on the first step in that process during the first week of Jan. Bob, what are your thoughts about what the Euro stratosphere plots show, especially D10 at the 30 and 50hpa levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm not enthused yet. But it's a step in the right direction for the entire eastern half of the conus. Assuming the ens mean is where we are going and we don't quickly regress...I can envision a drawn out step down process where the storm track presses southward over time. The tricky part is even if something does in fact track underneath us, will there be enough cold air to work with? In a pattern like that, any cold shot will hit the upper midwest first and then have a bunch of time to modify as it comes south and east. Our best chances happen when cold invades the OHV first. Not always of course. Speaking in a perfect world kind of way. Verbatim, the NE can score in a general pattern like that. They could get their cold air straight from Quebec. Even AN in Jan will do the job for them. I'm not pessimistic at all though. It's a process. And ensembles are agreeing on the first step in that process during the first week of Jan. By this time next week, my hope is that we can be talking about this "decent" step at a closer range and see an actual "good" step start to show up consistently in the LR. If that can be achieved, then we are indeed on the right track. If we're still chasing mirages, then that will not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Bob, what are your thoughts about what the Euro stratosphere plots show, especially D10 at the 30 and 50hpa levels? Not very exciting. We've seen bend and don't break for a couple years now. Yes, it gets disturbed and elongated but that is totally normal every winter. It's still quite cold and strong overall. Ens mean plots show a continuation of a consolidated vortex as far as the eye can see. Maybe it takes enough punches to respond meaningfully as Jan progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pack, Aleutian low/goa ridge signal got stronger on the 12z EPS. Hard to get mad at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Maybe...possibly....could it be...#smallvictories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pack, Aleutian low/goa ridge signal got stronger on the 12z EPS. Hard to get mad at that. LOL...I think you posted this the same time I posted the above. I feel a tear coming to my eye.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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