2015-16 Lakes/Ohio Valley Season Snowfall Contest

[WestMichigan]

APN and GRR seem to have the most uncertainty of the sub 100" stations.

[IWXwx]

IWXwx with the bloodbath.

 

 

Worst picks ever!  

 

Blowing chunks and it's not even December.

[Stebo]

Blowing chunks and it's not even December.

Mother nature never ceases to surprise. Let's hope your reverse psychology brings fortune for everyone.

[Roger Smith]

MQT to date _ 9.4"

 

(about a quarter of their normal value)

[Jonger]

My city is the snowiest location in the state with 17 inches. Not a common situation.

[Roger Smith]

I saw on the Canadian weather network that Toronto is up to 0.8 cm already !! (that's 0.3 inches in old money).

[IWXwx]

I saw on the Canadian weather network that Toronto is up to 0.8 cm already !! (that's 0.3 inches in old money).

 

Slant stickers.

[Roger Smith]

Lots of time for these to recover, but so far

 

APN __ 1.8"

MQT _15.7"

 

both a long way below normal to date.

[IWXwx]

IWXwx with the bloodbath.

 

Killin' it.

[buckeye]

Killin' it.

 

Don't get too cocky.... we haven't even hit the .4 in your 18.4

[IWXwx]

Don't get too cocky.... we haven't even hit the .4 in your 18.4

 

You'll make it up in April.

[Jackstraw]

Can I still get in on this and use a negative amount like -18? 

[Roger Smith]

MQT now has 34.4" and APN has 12.3" ... both around 40% of normal values at this point in the season. Next week looks fairly promising for MQT possibly 20-30 inches more but it's going to be a challenge now to get anywhere near 150 inches for them. Last time I looked at London (YXU) the total was 11 cm which is about 4.5 inches, they may have had a bit more since then.

 

I can tell you from living in that area in the 1970s, the city of London can get a lot more snow than YXU which is located northeast of the city. Squall bands sometimes set up over the west end of London or even right through the city and dump larger amounts. People in London think of the snow belt as being to their north but also to their west. When there's a Huron-Erie connection that hits Cleveland, that usually runs a little west of London and misses YXU. So their normal snow totals are not that much larger than Toronto which only gets east wind lake effect, the amount that ever reaches Toronto from Lake Huron is about like what reaches Detroit from Lake Michigan, maybe 2-4 inches a winter in small amounts.

[London snowsquall]

MQT now has 34.4" and APN has 12.3" ... both around 40% of normal values at this point in the season. Next week looks fairly promising for MQT possibly 20-30 inches more but it's going to be a challenge now to get anywhere near 150 inches for them. Last time I looked at London (YXU) the total was 11 cm which is about 4.5 inches, they may have had a bit more since then.

 

I can tell you from living in that area in the 1970s, the city of London can get a lot more snow than YXU which is located northeast of the city. Squall bands sometimes set up over the west end of London or even right through the city and dump larger amounts. People in London think of the snow belt as being to their north but also to their west. When there's a Huron-Erie connection that hits Cleveland, that usually runs a little west of London and misses YXU. So their normal snow totals are not that much larger than Toronto which only gets east wind lake effect, the amount that ever reaches Toronto from Lake Huron is about like what reaches Detroit from Lake Michigan, maybe 2-4 inches a winter in small amounts.

 

Well stated.  I used to work near the airport but live in the west-end, and I could definitely pick up on the difference between the 2 locales.    The vast majority of the time,  the west side of the city gets more lake effect than the east side.   That difference disappears not far from the city as soon as you start going NE up towards Stratford and Hwy 7 where you get the impact of westerly winds off L. Huron.

[Roger Smith]

Note I have added 1986-2015 average values (from original post) in blue and placed them at a scaled distance (each _ is 5" and if appropriate the dot at the end is 2.5") from the actuals (see date stamp bottom of this post) to illustrate better where we are at now perhaps more than 80% through the season in an average year ... also the values have been placed in more of a graphical than tabular format now:

 

Alpena, MI (APN) ____________________________80.4_.88.8

Chicago, IL (ORD) _________ 31.2_.38.1
Cleveland, OH (CLE) ________32.8_______67.2
Columbus, OH (CMH)_17.1__28.4
Detroit, MI (DTW) _____________35.3__44.8
Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) __ 20.0___34.0
Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _______________61.1___77.1
Green Bay, WI (GRB) ____________50.0_54.2
Indianapolis, IN (IND)_13.3__.25.9
La Crosse, WI (LSE) __________,40.3_46.1
London, ON (YXU) ____________________65.2__75.7 ____ (165.5 cm to May 6th)
Louisville, KY (SDF) _13.914.9
Marquette, MI (MQT) _______________________________________160.9________199.8
Milwaukee, WI (MKE) _________39.1__49.2
Minneapolis, MN (MSP) _______36.7___50.6
Moline, IL (MLI) _______24.1__33.5
Paducah,KY(PAH)9.2 12.1
Peoria, IL (PIA) _____ 15.3__24.9
St. Louis,MO(STL)_10.9_.18.4
Toronto, ON (YYZ) ________25.9___42.5  _____________ (65.9 cm to May 6th)

Tiebreaker #1: December snowfall at ORD ______ 4.5
Tiebreaker #2: January total snowfall at IND _____ 5.8
Tiebreaker #3: February total snowfall at DTW _____10.7

 

NOTE: This table will be updated and a new date stamp will appear here.

- most recent update is through May 15 17z and includes reports through May 14 for all stations except late reporting GRR, CLE. 

See next post for details.

 

Average 1986-2015 values in blue for context.

[Roger Smith]

I have added the recent 30-year average values (1986-2015) and scaled the comparisons of actual vs seasonal normals in the table above which is now more of a graph than a table.

 

(as of Feb 14) The two KY stations have already surpassed their average values and the three closest otherwise in percentage terms would appear to be ORD (67%), MLI (63%) and GRB (61%) with MSP at 60%. The weakest performers so far (as of Feb 14, these low percentages will increase in coming days) are YYZ at 18% CLE at 27% and GRR at 28%, prorated those would end up at about 27% (YYZ) and 41-42% (CLE,GRR) but perhaps they will do better and catch up a bit.

 

Update May 15th ... The two KY stations are now joined by APN as the only three now above seasonal normals already, PAH is 131% and SDF 107%. APN has now moved to 110%, while GRB now 91%, LSE and YXU 86%, ORD 82%, MQT 81%, MKE and GRR 79%, DTW 78%, MSP 73%, MLI 72%, CMH and YYZ 61%, then STL and FWA 59%, PIA 55%, IND 52%, and CLE 49%.

 

If you find the table hard to read above, this is perhaps easier:

 

Alpena, MI (APN) ______80.4__88.8

Chicago, IL (ORD) __________ 31.2_.38.1
Cleveland, OH (CLE) ________ 32.8_______67.2
Columbus, OH (CMH) _______ 17.1___28.4
Detroit, MI (DTW) ___________35.3__44.8
Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _______ 20.0___34.0
Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _____ 61.1___77.1
Green Bay, WI (GRB) ________50.0_54.2
Indianapolis, IN (IND) ________13.3__.25.9
La Crosse, WI (LSE) _________40.3_46.1
London, ON (YXU) __________ 65.2__75.7 ____ (165.5 cm to May 6th)
Louisville, KY (SDF) _____13.9 14.9
Marquette, MI (MQT) ________160.9________199.8
Milwaukee, WI (MKE) ________39.1__49.2
Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ______ 36.7__,50.6
Moline, IL (MLI) _____________24.1__33.5
Paducah, KY (PAH)_______9.2.12.1
Peoria, IL (PIA) _____________15.3__24.9
St. Louis, MO (STL) _________ 10.9_.18.4
Toronto, ON (YYZ) __________25.9____42.5 ____(65.9 cm to May 6th)

Last updated May 15 17z through May 14 for all stations although GRR, CLE are late reporting and could add small amounts later.

... 

... The last new snowfall added was 1.1" at MQT on May 14th.

[Roger Smith]

Just bumping the thread to keep it on page one and to report that the tables I created in mid-February are being updated daily as you'll see above (there are two versions of the same table, the first is staggered to create a visual (mess) comparison of the actual and normal values, the second is just a straight table but with the same proportional spacing between seasonal totals to date and 1986-2015 averages ( in blue ). For today's ongoing snowfall, I got the most recent data I could find from any source (7.1" GRR, 5.1" APN, and 2-3 inch amounts for several other locations, 0.4" FWA ... some of these are likely to increase on final reports). (added later, YYZ reported 9.4 cms which is 3.6 inches and added 0.4 cm on 2nd ... YXU reported 10 cm on 1st).

[Roger Smith]

Two posts back I have edited in the current percentages of seasonal normals (1986-2015). Some are creeping up towards normal, the two KY stations were above normal in mid-Feb but have added only a bit. The two stragglers are Toronto and Cleveland.

[Trent]

Looks like CLE is still doing the worst in the sub forum with ~40% of normal snowfall. Is FNT the big winner with ~141% of normal?

[Roger Smith]

Yes except FNT is not a contest site, so far only the two KY stations have exceeded seasonal normals but LSE is getting close (now at 86%). The tables have been updated a few posts back and the current percentage values are in red in one of those posts.

[Roger Smith]

APN has now joined the two KY stations above the seasonal average (for 1986-2015) with the 8.1" reported earlier today (on April 6) ... see post 47 for the entire update.

 

MQT also added 9 inches and has had more snow in April than most of these stations had all winter. It is something like ten times their April normal amount already (last year they had 0.2" this year heading for maybe 50 or 60).

[weatherbo]

I think the snow season is over most places.  on average another 5-6" here, so may rack up a bit more.

MQT to date: 159.7

Powerball 161.3

Maxim 158

Buffalo 167.2

Bo 169.5

Brewers 169.9

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Just so readers know this post exists, I have copied it from back in the thread -- it is updated every time there is significant snow which lately has meant every day.

 

Update May 15th ... The two KY stations are now joined by APN as the only three now above seasonal normals already, PAH is 131% and SDF 107%. APN has now moved to 110%, while GRB now 91%, LSE and YXU 86%, ORD 82%, MQT 81%, MKE and GRR 79%, DTW 78%, MSP 73%, MLI 72%, CMH and YYZ 61%, then STL and FWA 59%, PIA 55%, IND 52%, and CLE 49%.

 

SNOWFALL to DATE ________ amount ___ (in blue, 1986-2015 average from original post)

 

Alpena, MI (APN) ______80.4__88.8

Chicago, IL (ORD) __________ 31.2_.38.1
Cleveland, OH (CLE) ________ 32.8_______67.2
Columbus, OH (CMH) _______ 17.1___28.4
Detroit, MI (DTW) ___________35.3__44.8
Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _______ 20.0___34.0
Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _____ 61.1___77.1
Green Bay, WI (GRB) ________50.0_54.2
Indianapolis, IN (IND) ________13.3__.25.9
La Crosse, WI (LSE) _________40.3_46.1
London, ON (YXU) __________ 65.2__75.7 ____ (165.5 cm to May 6th)
Louisville, KY (SDF) _____13.9 14.9
Marquette, MI (MQT) ________160.9________199.8
Milwaukee, WI (MKE) ________39.1__49.2
Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ______ 36.7__,50.6
Moline, IL (MLI) _____________24.1__33.5
Paducah, KY (PAH)_______9.2.12.1
Peoria, IL (PIA) _____________15.3__24.9
St. Louis, MO (STL) _________ 10.9_.18.4
Toronto, ON (YYZ) __________25.9___.42.5 ____(65.9 cm to May 6th)

Last updated May 14 23z through May 14 but some stations are late reporting data for May 14 so further changes are possible....

The most recent new snowfall added was 1.1" at MQT on May 14th.

There appears to be a slight chance of further snow at MQT but season is very close to termination.

 

Note, the scale used to depict long-term average departure is _ for 5" and . for 2.5" (e.g. __. = 12.5 inches)

These differences are rounded. Canadian stations are converted from measurements in cm to inches.

[Roger Smith]

This table shows the actuals vs group consensus (average of 19 forecasts).

 

Group consensus is in blue. I tried placing these in the above table but many are almost overlapping and the table is almost unreadable.

 

SNOWFALL to DATE ________ amount ___ (in blue, forecast consensus average of 19 forecasts)

 

Alpena, MI (APN) ____68.2____88.8

Chicago, IL (ORD) __________ 31.2.33.3
Cleveland, OH (CLE) ________ 32.8_____.60.9
Columbus, OH (CMH) _______ 17.1_.24.8
Detroit, MI (DTW) ___________35.3_39.9
Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _______ 20.0__29.8
Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) _____ 61.1__68.2
Green Bay, WI (GRB) ___ 45.2_50.0
Indianapolis, IN (IND) ________13.3_..21.2
La Crosse, WI (LSE) _____ 39.4 40.3
London, ON (YXU) __________ 65.2_71.2 ____ (165.5 cm to May 6th)
Louisville, KY (SDF) _____12.9 14.9
Marquette, MI (MQT) ________160.9__175.5
Milwaukee, WI (MKE) ________39.1 40.5
Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ______ 36.7_42.1
Moline, IL (MLI) _____________24.1_29.7
Paducah, KY (PAH)_______9.7.12.1
Peoria, IL (PIA) _____________15.3_.22.5
St. Louis, MO (STL) _________ 10.9_15.7
Toronto, ON (YYZ) __________25.9___39.8  ____(65.9 cm to May 6th)

 

(updated May 14, last measured snow 1.1" at MQT on May 14). Some other stations that may have recorded snow on May 14 are late reporting and so further changes are possible.

____________________________________________________________________________________

 

Our group consensus was closer to the actual value at most locations, sometimes by several inches and sometimes just marginally. For Alpena and Louisville, our forecasts had larger errors but on the same side of the actual value (these stations are both already above normal). For Green Bay, our error was slightly larger than the current departure from normal, and we were below the current value while normal is higher, so our error may increase if Green Bay gets more snow. The only other station where our forecast was on the other side of normal from the actual value (at this point) was La Crosse but our error there is smaller.

 

Our group consensus was only poor at Cleveland, Alpena and perhaps Toronto (in my opinion), Marquette is probably not done yet and will have a smaller error at the end of the season.

 

(slight edit on May 15)

 

From my table (which I hope has no errors) the total departure of normal values was 243.5" and the total departure of average predictions was 156.8" which is a total improvement of 86.6" for the 20 locations or 4.3" per location on average. Since we were 12 inches worse at Alpena than normal, the average improvement for the other 19 stations was 5.2".

 

I don't want to pre-empt the contest results but to get this I had to work out forecaster errors so I can say in general terms that of the 19 forecasts, 15 improved on normal values, two were identical (including one who forecast all the 1986-2015 average values) and two were slightly worse than normal values. Then by my numbers, five forecasters beat the group consensus. The best score was a total error of 130.8" and second place is 132.8" but both of these will increase with any further snow at MQT while the third place total of 135.4" as well as fourth place 139.8" will gain (decrease) with any snow at MQT. This tells me that the lead would change if 2.4" more snow falls at MQT (current third would then edge out current first) if no other snow falls elsewhere -- the same dynamics are in play for further snow at GRR.

 

Not sure if the contest organizer will use total error or some other index so if it's some other index I will publish the actuals of my analysis later. If it's the same I will check my numbers and edit this post if I find any errors. (note, I checked my file and found no errors, but if the contest is to be decided on total error and only MQT gets further snow, the current order would change as some leaders have lower forecasts than the current MQT total and some have higher forecasts).

 

As to the three tie-breakers, it would have been more work than I wanted to do to find out the 1986-2015 average values of those three monthly forecasts but I did look up the 1981-2010 normal values which are published in the climate summaries. In these three tiebreakers, these are the stats comparing our averages to the long-term normals:

 

Tiebreaker #1: December snowfall at ORD ______ 4.5 (actual) ___ 5.3 (group avg) ___ 8.5 (1981-2010)
Tiebreaker #2: January total snowfall at IND _____ 5.8 (actual) ___ 7.4 (group avg) ___ 8.6 (1981-2010
Tiebreaker #3: February total snowfall at DTW ___10.7 (actual) __ 14.0 (group avg) __ 10.2 (1981-2010)

 

Since it's not really the main contest, I could post the "winners" (lowest errors) of the tiebreakers:

 

December snowfall at ORD ___ 4.4" (Michsnowfreak) ______ 0.1" low

January snowfall at IND ______ 6.0" (slowpoke) __________ 0.2" high

February snowfall at DTW ____ 10.6" (madwx) _ 10.8" SchS_ 0.1" low, high

 

From this it can be seen that our group consensus was better for December snow at ORD and January snow at IND while faring worse for DTW February snow.

 

As a general rule, our group consensus seemed to anticipate correctly that snowfall would be generally below normal values, closer to normal in Kentucky than in the region as a whole, and also in northern Wisconsin. There was also some indication that heavier snow was expected late in the season (from the tiebreaker as well as one or two remarks). This turned out to be the case although a heavy snowfall in late November was also significant.

 

More stats for thiose who cannot get enough ...

 

To date, the total snowfall in the region at the 20 stations is 795.0" compared to the 1986-2015 average value of 1013.9" ... which is 78.4% of average. As MQT and perhaps a few other locations could see a bit more, that will increase by 1% every time there is another 10.1" of snow. Of the snow that fell, 20.2% fell at MQT and 27% fell at the combined GRR, APN and YXU. Meanwhile, our average forecasts called for 890.5 inches which is 87.8% of the long-term average. So far, actual snowfall has been 89.2% of what we expected as a group, and that could increase by 1% every time 9" more falls at MQT or elsewhere. So we may end up fairly close to being right on the money with our group predictions, albeit placing too much in Cleveland.

 

(edited May 15 ... all comments above edited slightly after 1.1" at MQT on May 14. I still think it's unlikely that MQT will get more than a couple more inches perhaps. There is a slight chance of snow being reported at GRR or CLE when they update their reports for May 14, ruhning a day or two late in many places in the NWS network.)

 

 

[Roger Smith]

These are the unofficial results of the contest assuming no more snow at MQT (or elsewhere).

 

These are for information purposes only, of course ... any official announcement will make this post null and void (or at least I would edit it to match).

 

FORECASTER __ TOTAL ERROR __ SUM of SQUARES (rank) __ BEST FORECAST FOR ...

 

01 _ Slowpoke*________130.8 ___________ 1677 (1) _______

02 _ Maxim*__________ 132.8 ___________ 2328 (5) _______ SDF (15.0, +0.1)

03 _ ChicagoWx ______ 135.4 ___________ 1797 (2) _______ ORD (32.0, +0.8), MKE (39.0, --0.1)

04 _ SchaumburgStorm_ 139.8 ___________ 2645 (7) _______ GRR (61.5, +0.4), IND (12.6, --0.7)

05 _ madwx __________151.5 ___________ 2510 (6) _______ DTW (34.7, --0.6)

 

06 _ Consensus (avg) __ 156.9 ___________ 2121 (4) _______

 

06 _ Powerball ________158.1 ___________ 2100 (3) _______ MQT (161.3, +0.4), STL (11.6, +0.7)

07 _ IWXwx __________ 166.7 ___________ 3017 (9) _______ CMH (18.4, +1.3), FWA (21.0, +1.0)** PIA (14.8, --0.5)

__________________________________________ YXU (65.7, +0.5), MSP (36.6, --0.1), MLI (23.5, --0.6), YYZ (26.2, +0.3)

08 _ Buffalowx ________ 172.1 ___________ 2293 (4) _______ LSE (40.2, --0.1)

09 _ OHweather _______ 178.0 ___________ 3299 (11) ______ GRB (50.0, 0.0), PAH (11.6, --0.5)

10 _ cyclone 77 ________183.4 ___________ 3490 (13) ______ APN (88.0, -0.8)

11 _ brewers __________ 189.5 ___________ 2731 (8) _______

12 _ nokywx __________ 194.6 ___________ 3281 (10) ______

13 _ Roger Smith*______ 199.9 ___________ 4053 (14) ______ CLE (47.0, +14.2), FWA (21.0, +1.0)**

14 _ weatherbo ________ 220.5 ___________ 3471 (12) ______

15 _ Stebo ___________  239.9 ___________ 4794 (18) ______

16t _ Michsnowfreak ____ 243.5 ___________ 4683 (17) ______

 

16t _ kokomowx (+norm)_ 243.5 ____________4622 (16) ______

 

18 _ Geos ____________251.2 ____________ 4375 (15) ______

19 _ DMC76 __________ 302.3 ____________ 6821 (19) ______

 

(Notes: Consensus was the average of forecasts. Norm is listed with kokomowx because their values are identical, and Norm is the average of 1986-2015 as supplied in the original post. Consensus and Norm ranks do not affect lower ranks of actual forecasters. There was a tie for 16th place.)

 

* Three forecasts are currently lower than MQT actual, these three will increase in total error while others will decrease in total error, as any more snow is recorded there. Powerball would be in that situation after 0.4" more falls. The next closest to reversing trend is BuffaloWx (167.2", after 6.3" more).

 

** these best forecasts are tied.

 

Best forecast lists the amount predicted with the error from the actual value. A negative number here means a lower forecast than actually recorded, positive means higher than actually recorded.

 

So, interesting to note that the contest leader (by my figures) did not have a best forecast while 7th place IWXwx had seven of them. A high forecast for CLE tended to erase the gains made at all those locations.

 

In case you think MQT skews the results, this is the top five with MQT excluded:

 

(1) ChicagoWx 116.3

(2) Slowpoke 118.9

(3) SchaumburgS 125.2

(4) Maxim 129.9

(5) madwx 130.8

 

Not a big shift when we exclude the location most likely to produce a large error component.

 

One final scoring category, total snowfall predicted vs the 795.0 that fell at 20 stations.

 

 

Rank __ Forecaster __________ error

 

01 ____ Schaumburg (784.2) __ --10.8

02 ____ Maxim (771) ________ --24.0

03 ____ Powerball (839.5) ____ +44.5

04 ____ Slowpoke (750) ______ --45.0

05 ____ madwx (845.3) ______ +50.3

06 ____ IWXwx (724.1) _______ --70.9

07 ____ ChicagoWx (886) _____ +91.0

 

08 ____ Consensus (890.5) ___ +95.5

 

08 ____ nokywx (917.6) ______+122.6

09 ____ Roger Smith (667.5) __--127.5

10 ____ Buffalowx (924.5) ____ +129.5

11 ____ OHweather (929.4) ___ +134.4

12 ____ brewers (932.1) ______ +137.1

13 ____ weatberbo 934.3 ______+139.3

14 ____ Stebo (963.7) ________ +168.7

15 ____ cyclone77 (973) ______ +178.0

16 ____ Michsnowfreak (974.9) _ +179.9

17 ____ Geos (1007.2) _______ +212.2

 

18 __ kokomowx, norm (1013.9) _ +218.9

 

19 ____ dmc (1077.5) ________ +282.5

 

Summary -- five out of nineteen went for less snow than actually fell, they ranked 1,2,4,6,9 and in the actual contest they ranked 4,2,1,7,13.

[cyclone77]

Think I'll keep my day job lawlz.  

 

Thanks for the compiling of data.

[IWXwx]

Thanks Roger. I've been wanting tabulate the final results, but never got around to it. You did a much better job than I would have done.

 

I nailed way more cities than anyone else, but also blew chunks so bad on my other picks that it put me way down the list. As Joel said, I'll stay with my day job.

[slow poke]

So who ended up being our "winner" last season?

[Roger Smith]

I think it was you. As I mentioned in another thread, I will post a 2016-17 contest thread tonight if one has not been posted by then.

In fact, I will post it in the next hour. 

[slow poke]

13 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I think it was you. As I mentioned in another thread, I will post a 2016-17 contest thread tonight if one has not been posted by then.

In fact, I will post it in the next hour. 

Cool! I was wondering that when I saw my name on the top of the list you had but wasn't 100% sure. I'll have to show this to my 14 year son, he loves weather more then me, all he watches on TV is the weather channel it seems, he'll get a kick out of me winning I bet. Thanks Roger for posting the 16-17 contest, I'll have my picks up this week some time.