IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 First frost for the interior on 10/15 per 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It's possible that we may have to wait until the second half of October or even November to start making a small dent in the precipitation deficits. But by next March, this should all just be a distant memory with the raging STJ pattern that is expected. Latest modeling and ensembles are pretty dry now through the end of next week. Hoping that the tropical system comes to fruition and that it can find a way to sneak up here, although I am not sure the pattern would necessarily favor that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 We may just have to rely on the STJ seasonal response increasing from the second half of the fall right into the spring. Exact timing of drought endings are tricky to forecast. The period around the 18th is still pretty interesting. The 12z GFS has some snow potential for Upstate NY and NNE on the 16th with a PNA spike and a trough dropping through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Eh, the problem this week is the Atlantic not cooperating. You have a +PNA spike ongoing and a rebounding NAO. Joaquin really disrupted the entire pattern. IMO, Joaquin's evolution and track were part of the pattern which is related to among other factors the Atlantic's SSTAs. The continuing strong PDO favors the PNA+. If one factors the Atlantic's sea surface temperature anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture those standardized anomalies were relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 more chances to pad the 80 degree count on friday and monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 IMO, Joaquin's evolution and track were part of the pattern which is related to among other factors the Atlantic's SSTAs. The continuing strong PDO favors the PNA+. If one factors the Atlantic's sea surface temperature anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture those standardized anomalies were relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October. How about the pacific SSTA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 more chances to pad the 80 degree count on friday and monday Meh, the 12z GEFS ensembles barely have SW areas cracking the lower 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Meh, the 12z GEFS ensembles barely have SW areas cracking the lower 70's. I think it would have to be drier and sunnier for anyone to hit 80 Friday. (not sure about Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 At least the current 30 day period is showing some slow improvement. 30dPDeptNRCC.png Yes, however a large majority of this fell within a 72 hour period last week. I hope we can get this trough to dig deeper and capture the tropical system forecasted to emerge from the deep tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Thanks. Not a single below normal day in there. The EPS really pumps the -EPO ridge day 8-11, so a nice shot of colder fall temps could sneak in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The EPS really pumps the -EPO ridge day 8-11, so a nice shot of colder fall temps could sneak in there. I'm fine with above average because now that we're in October it's all relative. Above average no longer means 95 and hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 We have been lucking out in the 2000's since the sea of warm has generally been missing the winters with the exception of a few stinkers. Yeah, for sure. Winter lovers have had some great times, especially last year, and the Summer lovers, well that goes without saying. This was definitely the Summer for those who like that kind of weather, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 south shore people should get a great view http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallops http://www.space.com/30760-nasa-rocket-launch-glowing-clouds.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 south shore people should get a great viewhttp://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallopshttp://www.space.com/30760-nasa-rocket-launch-glowing-clouds.html Oh yeah, definitely. They said North Jersey would be able to see it, but we looked in that direction and couldn't see a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 We have been lucking out in the 2000's since the sea of warmth has generally been missing the winters with the exception of a few stinkers. But even years like 05-06 where the warmth intruded in January, February really delivered. It's the perfect setup for extreme weather enthusiasts, torrid hot summers and then cold and snow for the winter with numerous KU events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Upton's AFD mentions the possibility of 80 Friday, but all depends on cloud/shower arrival: - TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTIONPATTERN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIRINTO THE REGION. THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE WAS WARMER THEN THE MAVS BYSEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE SIDEDWITH WARMER GUIDANCE OVERALL...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE MET DUETO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THATSOME LOCATIONS APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OFTHE FRONT EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I saw nothing, but I might be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 i saw a greenish glowing blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Now that you mention it, I did see a blueish-green blob, I thought it was the moon shrouded in clouds, but the moon isn't even on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Fuzzy blob appeared vaguely like a comet to the unaided eye. Couldn't see the rocket at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 How about the pacific SSTA? As the wave lengths increase later in the fall, the Pacific will become increasingly important in terms of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I saw the chemical release from downtown Manhattan, which surprised me. It must've been very bright. You would not have expected to see the rocket itself. Sounding rockets burn out at much lower altitudes than orbital rockets; they accelerate quickly and then nearly their entire flight path is a pure ballistic trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 12z nam seems to show the rains mainly b/w 5pm and 8pm which would allow us to get quite warm tomorrow (vs some earlier runs that had it at 2pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Up to 70 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 High of 72 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 High of 72 in the city. TORCH! We'll add another 5 to that tomorrow before cooling down to seasonal norms for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 TORCH! We'll add another 5 to that tomorrow before cooling down to seasonal norms for the weekend Well, the negative monthly departure is almost gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Still a -3 degree temp departure here in suburbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Large minimum departure upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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